Team Overview: Washington Redskins
Posted: Sat May 28, 2005 3:05 pm
Team Overview: Washington Redskins
by Dave McElfresh
The return of head coach Joe Gibbs to the Redskins' organization was supposed to usher in a new era of on-field success. A winner of three Super Bowls, Gibbs was hailed as a football guru, capable of turning around a troubled organization solely on the basis of his name and football reputation. The new Gibbs era, though, has gotten off to a decidedly rocky start. Gibbs has looked lost at times on the field, and the front office continues to make suspect roster decisions. Inattention to the salary cap in years past has left Washington in an awkward position, and key Redskins players on both sides of the ball have expressed dissatisfaction with the team and its management. Thus, despite Gibbs' presence on the sidelines, the Redskins limped their way to a 6-10 record in 2004, made all the worse by unprecedented weakness across the NFC which kept them nominally in the playoff hunt until the tail end of the season.
Certainly it is far too early to condemn Gibbs' second performance, but the upcoming season looks decidedly bleak for Washington fans. The team has lost ground at several key positions, and some of the most obvious holes on the roster have not been adequately addressed. Another season of on-field struggles likely lies in store for Gibbs' Redskins in 2005.
Quarterbacks
The quarterback position is a microcosm of the difficulties facing the Redskins' franchise as a whole. The team brought in aging veteran Mark Brunell to replace Patrick Ramsey, who had fallen out of favor with the new coaching staff. But Brunell proved to be so far beyond his prime that he was supplanted at midseason by Ramsey despite the coaches' concerns. Ramsey, in turn, has had a decidedly shaky career in Washington.
Drafted by Steve Spurrier during that coach's first season with the club, Ramsey was pressed into service as a rookie when Spurrier's Florida alumni Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel proved incapable of leading the offense. Spurrier's offensive scheme, though, was hardly conducive to developing a young quarterback, and Ramsey found himself pressured frequently and sacked at an alarming rate. Ramsey did open the next season as starter, but the constant pounding inflicted several injuries on the young quarterback, and he was inactive for the final five games of the season.
Last season, one of Gibbs' first notable moves was the signing of Brunell as a free agent. Brunell was given a seven-year, 43 million dollar deal - the sort of contract that neither side expects to see through to completion. But the upfront money (8.6 million in signing bonus) was high enough to imply that the team expected several years of service from Brunell. Ramsey himself was angered by the apparent lack of confidence placed in him by the coaching staff, and went so far as to publicly seek a trade. Then, when Brunell opened the season with several poor outings against weak opposition, and Ramsey still remained on the bench, it became quite clear that the franchise did not believe Ramsey to be their answer at quarterback.
Not until Brunell's completion percentage had dropped to last in the NFL did the team relent and play Ramsey. While the result was a marginal improvement, the Redskins' offense as a whole continued to struggle. Ramsey improved on Brunell's completion percentage, but threw an uncomfortable eleven interceptions in nine games, to go with only ten touchdown passes. Both starting quarterbacks appeared incapable of completing deep passes reliably, and the Washington game plan adapted to emphasize short, safer pass routes. That in turn allowed defenses to tighten up closer to the line of scrimmage, stifling the running game and flooding those very same short passing routes.
Going into 2005, it appears that Ramsey will remain the starting quarterback by default. The team was shut out of the quarterback market in free agency, in part because of the size of Brunell's contract. And although the Redskins did draft a quarterback with their second pick of the first round, Auburn product Jason Campbell is an unpolished project who is most likely several seasons removed from competing for a starting job. Nevertheless, given the team's obvious lack of commitment to Ramsey, it is easy to question his confidence and commitment to the team in return. How well he performs, and even how long the coaches will stay with Ramsey as the starter, is very much in doubt.
Fantasy Twist
Even with Patrick Ramsey officially the starter in Washington, his fantasy value remains minimal. Last year, Ramsey ranked 27th in passer rating, and 29th in yards per attempt. The Redskins' offense as a whole ranked 31st in points per game, and produced only 18 passing touchdowns in 16 contests. This offseason has seen little improvement in the receiving corps, and the offensive line is still thin. Accordingly, fantasy owners can expect to see Ramsey under frequent pressure again this season, and should expect Washington to struggle at putting points on the board.
At best, Ramsey should be viewed as a third quarterback for fantasy purposes, where he might be safe to use for bye week coverage, but he is not going to score enough fantasy points to be worth relying on with any consistency. Brunell, meanwhile, has probably played himself out of a job, unless Ramsey is injured at some point. Even in that eventuality, Brunell is unlikely to play much better than last season, when he was among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Fantasy owners should refrain from drafting Brunell at any point, since he is sure to retire when his present contract is completed.
On the other hand, with the team's commitment to first round pick Jason Campbell, it would not be at all surprising to see him earn some playing time late in the season if the Redskins are out of playoff contention. Gibbs will likely be eager to see Campbell perform in game situations, and late games against Arizona or New York could provide an excellent opportunity. While most fantasy owners need not consider drafting Campbell, he is an intriguing prospect for dynasty league owners if he drops far into the second round. The Redskins' franchise is clearly not satisfied with Ramsey as a quarterback, and thus will be eager to develop Campbell into a viable alternative. As a long-term prospect, Campbell makes a sound early round selection, with good prospects for eventual playing time.
Running Backs
Following the acquisition of Brunell, the Gibbs' administration made another blockbuster move in the 2004 offseason, trading dissatisfied cornerback Champ Bailey to Denver for star running back Clinton Portis. The move was widely praised by Redskins' fans, who felt that the addition of an elite running back would be a critical factor in returning the team to the playoffs. And Portis appeared to be the perfect fit. In his first two seasons in Denver, Portis had exceeded 1,500 yards a season, and totaled 29 rushing touchdowns. He also averaged over 300 yards receiving, making him a legitimate dual threat.
But Denver had a key element that Washington lacked: a strong, talented and deep offensive line. Also, Denver's line blocking scheme was one well suited to Portis' shifting style. In Gibbs' scheme with the Redskins, Portis had less flexibility to make plays on his own, and his teammates on the line had considerably less success in opening holes for him. Although the Redskins ran Portis early and often to compensate for their struggles at quarterback, he never approached the success he had with the Broncos. Although Portis finished the season with 1,315 rushing yards, good for eighth in the league, he did so on 343 carries. That was the fifth-most carries in the NFL, and far more than he ever required as a Bronco. Worse, Portis finished the season with a yards per carry average of only 3.8, which was near the bottom of the league.
Blame for these weak performances, though, rests largely with weakness on the line and in the passing game, rather than with Portis himself. Portis remains the Redskins' unquestioned starter and star at the running back position heading into 2005 and beyond. His backup, Ladell Betts, is a capable power runner who provides adequate relief to Portis when needed, but Betts lacks the talent to challenge Portis for considerable playing time. Fullback Rock Cartwright was recently re-signed, and could find some use as a goal line and short yardage weapon for Washington. In 2003, he scored four times while rushing over 400 yards, but the coming of Portis effectively sent Cartwright to the bench. In 2004, he was limited to only two carries on the season. The Redskins' remaining running backs, Chad Morton and John Simon, are essentially special teams players who will receive only minimal carries on offensive snaps.
Fantasy Twist
Because of the overall weakness of Washington's offense, Portis is likely to be undervalued in many fantasy drafts, but should still be considered a first-round talent at his position. He should get 300+ carries again this season, and with even a small improvement in yards per attempt, Portis could find himself a top-five running back by season's end. He will need to improve on his woeful total of five rushing touchdowns, but that is also likely to occur. Portis remains in the game in goal line situations, unlike many comparable backs around the league, so the opportunities will be there if he and his teammates can punch them in. If Portis is available in the second half of the first round of a fantasy draft, he represents excellent value and should be strongly considered. Dynasty owners should select him even sooner, in light of his relative youth.
Ladell Betts merits little consideration from fantasy owners at this time, and his draft day value will be primarily as a handcuff player for Portis. Should Portis be injured, Betts is the likely candidate to replace him as starter, and has proven capable, though not exceptional, in such a role. He's also reasonably young, so dynasty owners should not hesitate to draft him early as a backup to Portis. Cartwright on the other hand, has no fantasy value at all, and would need to secure a legitimate on-field role before he would be worthy of such consideration.
Wide Receivers
The Redskins appear to have blamed much of their offensive woes in 2004 on the wide receiver corps, electing to trade star Laveranues Coles to the Jets, and trying unsuccessfully to move second starter Rod Gardner. The team acquired Jets' receiver Santana Moss in trade, and signed journeyman David Patten from New England as a free agent as well, making it likely that the corps will have an entirely new look in 2005.
But will the moves make the team appreciably better? Coles hauled in 90 passes for Washington last season, the seventh highest total in the NFL. The previous season, he caught 82. In contrast, Santana Moss' best season was 2003, when he caught just 74 passes with the Jets. Coles did see a decline in yardage and touchdown totals last season, from 1,204 yards and six touchdowns in 2003 to 950 and one in 2004. But that can easily be credited to the quarterback's play more so than Coles'. Coles also played through a toe injury for much of 2004, limiting his explosion, and likely contributing to his decline in yards per reception. There is some speculation, however, that the toe surgery Coles had this offseason will limit his performance in 2005, which could be part of the Redskins' decision to replace him.
But Coles' replacement has had health problems of his own. Moss has been in the league for four seasons, but has yet to last through a single one as a starter. He missed most of his rookie season with a knee injury, then in 2002 he played primarily as a punt returner. His best season came in 2003, when he started 12 games and was active for all 16. That year, he caught 74 passes for 1,105 yards and, significantly, 10 touchdowns. Moss missed time in 2004, though, with a hamstring injury that never fully healed, and finished with only 838 yards and five touchdowns.
On the other side of the field, starter Rod Gardner frustrated Redskins' coaches last season, to the point that he was encouraged to seek a trade in the offseason. Gardner, a first round pick of Washington's in the 2001 draft, displayed ample talent as the Redskins' number one receiver in 2002, but has struggled to adapt to being the second option. Of particular concern is Gardner's poor route running. His inability to run precise routes might have been tolerable when he was the quarterback's first read off the line. However, it's entirely unacceptable when his quarterback has to be able to find him after pressure has developed. Gardner also failed to fit comfortably into coach Gibbs' system, and earned a pedestrian 51 receptions to go with 650 receiving yards.
While Gardner has not been able to arrange a trade, it does appear that Washington will install David Patten as starter in place of him. Patten is now entering his ninth season, and the Redskins will be his fourth NFL team. His best seasons have come recently with the Patriots, where he twice has topped 800 yards. While Patten isn't likely to be a major force in the Redskins' offense, he is a polished route runner with good hands who can keep defenders honest. And by moving Gardner to the third spot on the depth chart, the Redskins add tremendous talent to their reserve unit as well.
Also on the roster are Taylor Jacobs and Darnerien McCants. Jacobs was Washington's second round pick in 2003, but missed most of his rookie season with a series of injuries. He saw limited playing time in 2004, but performed well in a handful of starts, and will likely be more of a factor in the Washington offense this year. McCants, on the other hand, was a project of the Spurrier era, and quickly fell out of favor with Gibbs. For various reasons, McCants found himself in the doghouse of the incoming staff, and barely played in 2004. His future with the team is very much in doubt, and if Washington fails to move Rod Gardner, McCants could be cut in training camp.
Fantasy Twist
There was a time when Santana Moss was a hot commodity in fantasy circles, prized for his speed, receiving ability, and considerable punt return skills. But his history of injury has raised enough concerns over his durability to drop him out of the first echelon of fantasy receivers. Factor in the usual decline for a receiver learning a new offensive scheme, and the overall weakness of Washington's passing game, and Moss is most likely to be drafted as a second receiver rather than a first-string starter.
Of particular note is that Moss' talent with the Jets lay in coming open down field by exploiting his speed and quickness against covering defensive backs. But the inability of Redskins' quarterbacks to connect reliably on deep passes could neutralize that facet of Moss' game. Thus, Moss is going to be something of a gamble for fantasy owners, even as a second starter. He'll see too many opportunities for his ranking to slip into the range of bench players, but owners should be cautious of expecting much from Moss this season.
Patten has never been a significant factor in fantasy circles, and his greatest utility in years past has been as a midseason free agent acquisition. His solid statistics in 2004, for instance, arose largely as a consequence of Patriots' starter Deion Branch being injured for much of the season. He should serve the Redskins reliably as a second receiving option, but his fantasy value will be limited. He's best targeted in the later rounds of a draft as a player to round out the bench and add depth to the receiver position. He's unlikely to produce enough to be a consistent fantasy starter in any event.
Gardner's status is sufficiently uncertain that at this point, it is inadvisable for fantasy owners to draft him. He's young enough to be worth a late round flyer in some dynasty leagues, but most fantasy owners would be better served holding off until his role is more evident. Dynasty league owners do need to consider Taylor Jacobs, however. Although his durability is becoming something of a concern, the long-term situation at receiver for Washington is sufficiently wide open that Jacobs could well emerge as a starter a few seasons hence. For owners looking several years into the future, Jacobs is actually a better selection than Gardner, even though he is likely to be available several rounds later.
Tight Ends
The Redskins' offensive scheme is not one which utilizes tight ends with any regularity. The official starter, Robert Royal, is primarily a blocker, and won't see a lot of offensive attention. A far more central role in the offense is the H-back position, a hybrid of the traditional fullback and tight end roles, that is ably filled in Washington by 2004 rookie Chris
ey. A tight end in college at Utah State, ey emerged in the second half of the season as a red zone threat and receiving talent. In eight starts, ey caught 37 passes for 314 yards, and amassed six touchdowns. That number is especially noteworthy, considering that the Redskins threw only 18 touchdowns last season. Accordingly, ey can be expected to remain a part of Washington's offensive scheme, and perhaps even have his role expanded in the coming season.
Fantasy Twist
Whileey is an exciting player to watch, and fits Gibbs' scheme perfectly, he isn't as deserving of fantasy consideration. The NFL is full of skilled receiving tight ends whose primary purpose is to catch passes downfield, and these will generally outperform an H-back like ey on a week-to-week basis. In most leagues, therefore, owners will have no reason to draft ey. Only in the largest and deepest fantasy leagues will he receive draft consideration.
Offensive Line
The Redskins' offensive line is not a particularly good one, and that has contributed greatly to their struggles in the passing and running game. Right tackle Chris Samuels is the star of the unit, but the rest is composed of journeymen like Derrick Dockery and former Ravens' center Casey Rabach. Holding down left tackle is still 43-year old Ray Brown, an emergency free agent signing late in the 2004 offseason. While these starters are adequate at best, the team lacks any appreciable depth, which makes it difficult to deal with injuries, and also costs the offense consistency whenever a starter needs a break. Surprisingly, the Redskins failed to draft an offensive lineman at any point in their 2005 draft, meaning the line's struggles will likely carry over to the 2005 regular season.
Fantasy Twist
Without a quality line in front of him, running back Clinton Portis will have trouble breaking the big running plays that make for exceptional fantasy scoring. While he'll carry often enough to be a reliable starter, he isn't likely to post many of the 20+ fantasy point outings that characterize the elite tier of fantasy running backs. Similarly, the quarterback play will be limited by the line's ability to contain opposing pass rushers. Owners in leagues which penalize quarterbacks for taking sacks should downgrade the Redskins' quarterbacks considerably.
Team Defense
In NFL terms, the Redskins were one of the league's elite defenses in 2004. The team allowed the third fewest yards per game, and second fewest rushing yards. They also ranked ninth in sacks. They even compared respectably to other teams in turnover totals. And the 2004 season also saw the emergence of several new stars on the defensive side of the ball, including rookie safety Sean Taylor, linebacker Lemar Marshall, and free agent acquisition Cornelius Griffin.
Factor in that the Redskins achieved their defensive success despite losing starters Lavar Arrington and Matt Bowen early in the season, and in spite of a moribund offensive unit, and it would seem reasonable to expect continued defensive success for Washington in 2005. The team's only major loss on defense was cornerback Fred Smoot, who will be replaced by veteran Walt Harris and first round rookie Carlos Rogers. Expect Washington to again be among the elite defenses in the NFL this season.
Fantasy Twist
Although the Redskins' defense was solid in overall terms, they were not a top-rated fantasy unit. For whatever reason - most likely having to do with poor starting field position - the unit did not have the success of other teams in limiting opponents' scoring. Also, the team's totals in critical fantasy point statistics, such as sacks and turnovers, was mediocre. Accordingly, Washington ranked in the bottom half of fantasy defenses, even while posting top five numbers in other areas.
This makes the Redskins' unit a prime candidate to dramatically improve their fantasy production this season. Defensive fantasy scoring fluctuates almost as wildly as kicker scoring from season to season, but the defenses that rise to the top are usually those with solid personnel in favorable situations. The weakness of Washington's offense may be enough to keep the defense out of the top five fantasy totals next year, but they should certainly make a respectable starting unit for owners willing to take a defensive unit late in their draft.
Kicker and Special Teams Unit
The Redskins have two kickers currently on their roster, and have as yet given no clear indication what they will do at the position come training camp. Veteran John Hall opened the season as Washington's starter, but suffered several injuries over the course of the 2004 campaign. His first replacement was Ola Kimrin, but after Kimrin converted just six of ten field goal attempts, he was replaced with third year veteran Jeff Chandler. Chandler managed just five of eight over the course of five games, implying clearly that Hall is the better kicker. And Hall is signed to a contract for three more seasons, but at a considerably higher price tag. The most likely outcome, therefore, is that Washington will stay with Hall as their starter.
Fantasy Twist
Hall is a respectable kicker, but not one of the elite in the league. As such, he's worthy of fantasy consideration only as one of a number of mid-tier kickers of comparable value. Fantasy owners should consider that a small improvement in Washington's offense could lead to considerably more field goal attempts, but also that continued offensive struggles could limit his opportunities. Hall is most likely the sort of kicker who will be picked up and cut frequently in fantasy leagues as various owners react to their kickers' bye weeks. Accordingly, he is worth little more than a final round draft pick in most fantasy leagues.
Individual Defensive Players
As far as the media is concerned, the Redskins' defensive superstar is linebacker Lavar Arrington. Arrington is indeed an explosive player, but he also plays recklessly, and sometimes without regard for the team's defensive game plan. Arrington is known for freewheeling in search of a big play, and often draws himself out of position in the pursuit of a sack. While this has the tendency to pad Arrington's fantasy point totals, it also frustrates his coaches, and may eventually lead to Arrington being sent elsewhere, or having his playing time reduced. Fantasy owners should give serious consideration to Arrington as a starting linebacker, for his playmaking ability alone, but need to be aware that he is considerably riskier than many comparably talented players.
The Redskins' other outside linebacker, Marcus Washington, is also worthy of fantasy consideration. He managed 87 tackles in 2004, to go with 4.5 sacks: reasonable production for a second starter at his position. Washington is one of the primary sack recipients in the Redskins' scheme, and should continue to have opportunities throughout the upcoming season.
The only lineman of note on the Redskins' defense is defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, who managed six sacks along with a surprisingly high 56 tackles - third best among NFL defensive linemen. While tackles are usually inferior to defensive ends in fantasy point production, Griffin's sixth-best FP/G total puts his fantasy potential near the top of his position. While it's not safe to assume that Griffin will repeat his career-best totals, he should come close enough to make a legitimate starter, and would be an excellent pick in leagues which distinguish between ends and tackles.
Washington's secondary has undergone a complete makeover in the past two seasons, with cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot replaced by Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers. While not necessarily an upgrade, the replacements should be adequate to the task. Springs is not a great fantasy candidate, as the best cornerback on a defense isn't tested often enough. But he did produce six sacks last season, demonstrating a willingness for Redskins' coaches to bring him in blitz packages. That adds enough to his value to make him worthy of consideration for a bench spot in most fantasy leagues, and serious starting consideration in leagues that separate safeties from cornerbacks.
Rookie Carlos Rogers would be a good player to target late in a fantasy draft for a spot on the bench. It's not clear exactly how much playing time he'll get at the start of the season, but if he earns his way on the field, expect opponents to throw in his direction frequently, as they set about testing his skills. That should open ample opportunities for Rogers to make either interceptions, pass defenses, or tackles, all of which score fantasy points in most leagues.
At safety, the strong safety job could be an open competition between Matt Bowen and free agent signing Pierson Prioleau. But the free safety spot is guaranteed to be filled by Sean Taylor. While the free safety position is not usually a favorable one for fantasy production, Taylor is a playmaker that coaches will try to move into favorable positions as often as possible. Accordingly, Taylor would make a solid starting candidate in most fantasy leagues and should be drafted fairly high amongst his peers. In dynasty drafts, his relative youth is also an asset, making him a highly desirable selection.
by Dave McElfresh
The return of head coach Joe Gibbs to the Redskins' organization was supposed to usher in a new era of on-field success. A winner of three Super Bowls, Gibbs was hailed as a football guru, capable of turning around a troubled organization solely on the basis of his name and football reputation. The new Gibbs era, though, has gotten off to a decidedly rocky start. Gibbs has looked lost at times on the field, and the front office continues to make suspect roster decisions. Inattention to the salary cap in years past has left Washington in an awkward position, and key Redskins players on both sides of the ball have expressed dissatisfaction with the team and its management. Thus, despite Gibbs' presence on the sidelines, the Redskins limped their way to a 6-10 record in 2004, made all the worse by unprecedented weakness across the NFC which kept them nominally in the playoff hunt until the tail end of the season.
Certainly it is far too early to condemn Gibbs' second performance, but the upcoming season looks decidedly bleak for Washington fans. The team has lost ground at several key positions, and some of the most obvious holes on the roster have not been adequately addressed. Another season of on-field struggles likely lies in store for Gibbs' Redskins in 2005.
Quarterbacks
The quarterback position is a microcosm of the difficulties facing the Redskins' franchise as a whole. The team brought in aging veteran Mark Brunell to replace Patrick Ramsey, who had fallen out of favor with the new coaching staff. But Brunell proved to be so far beyond his prime that he was supplanted at midseason by Ramsey despite the coaches' concerns. Ramsey, in turn, has had a decidedly shaky career in Washington.
Drafted by Steve Spurrier during that coach's first season with the club, Ramsey was pressed into service as a rookie when Spurrier's Florida alumni Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerffel proved incapable of leading the offense. Spurrier's offensive scheme, though, was hardly conducive to developing a young quarterback, and Ramsey found himself pressured frequently and sacked at an alarming rate. Ramsey did open the next season as starter, but the constant pounding inflicted several injuries on the young quarterback, and he was inactive for the final five games of the season.
Last season, one of Gibbs' first notable moves was the signing of Brunell as a free agent. Brunell was given a seven-year, 43 million dollar deal - the sort of contract that neither side expects to see through to completion. But the upfront money (8.6 million in signing bonus) was high enough to imply that the team expected several years of service from Brunell. Ramsey himself was angered by the apparent lack of confidence placed in him by the coaching staff, and went so far as to publicly seek a trade. Then, when Brunell opened the season with several poor outings against weak opposition, and Ramsey still remained on the bench, it became quite clear that the franchise did not believe Ramsey to be their answer at quarterback.
Not until Brunell's completion percentage had dropped to last in the NFL did the team relent and play Ramsey. While the result was a marginal improvement, the Redskins' offense as a whole continued to struggle. Ramsey improved on Brunell's completion percentage, but threw an uncomfortable eleven interceptions in nine games, to go with only ten touchdown passes. Both starting quarterbacks appeared incapable of completing deep passes reliably, and the Washington game plan adapted to emphasize short, safer pass routes. That in turn allowed defenses to tighten up closer to the line of scrimmage, stifling the running game and flooding those very same short passing routes.
Going into 2005, it appears that Ramsey will remain the starting quarterback by default. The team was shut out of the quarterback market in free agency, in part because of the size of Brunell's contract. And although the Redskins did draft a quarterback with their second pick of the first round, Auburn product Jason Campbell is an unpolished project who is most likely several seasons removed from competing for a starting job. Nevertheless, given the team's obvious lack of commitment to Ramsey, it is easy to question his confidence and commitment to the team in return. How well he performs, and even how long the coaches will stay with Ramsey as the starter, is very much in doubt.
Fantasy Twist
Even with Patrick Ramsey officially the starter in Washington, his fantasy value remains minimal. Last year, Ramsey ranked 27th in passer rating, and 29th in yards per attempt. The Redskins' offense as a whole ranked 31st in points per game, and produced only 18 passing touchdowns in 16 contests. This offseason has seen little improvement in the receiving corps, and the offensive line is still thin. Accordingly, fantasy owners can expect to see Ramsey under frequent pressure again this season, and should expect Washington to struggle at putting points on the board.
At best, Ramsey should be viewed as a third quarterback for fantasy purposes, where he might be safe to use for bye week coverage, but he is not going to score enough fantasy points to be worth relying on with any consistency. Brunell, meanwhile, has probably played himself out of a job, unless Ramsey is injured at some point. Even in that eventuality, Brunell is unlikely to play much better than last season, when he was among the worst quarterbacks in the league. Fantasy owners should refrain from drafting Brunell at any point, since he is sure to retire when his present contract is completed.
On the other hand, with the team's commitment to first round pick Jason Campbell, it would not be at all surprising to see him earn some playing time late in the season if the Redskins are out of playoff contention. Gibbs will likely be eager to see Campbell perform in game situations, and late games against Arizona or New York could provide an excellent opportunity. While most fantasy owners need not consider drafting Campbell, he is an intriguing prospect for dynasty league owners if he drops far into the second round. The Redskins' franchise is clearly not satisfied with Ramsey as a quarterback, and thus will be eager to develop Campbell into a viable alternative. As a long-term prospect, Campbell makes a sound early round selection, with good prospects for eventual playing time.
Running Backs
Following the acquisition of Brunell, the Gibbs' administration made another blockbuster move in the 2004 offseason, trading dissatisfied cornerback Champ Bailey to Denver for star running back Clinton Portis. The move was widely praised by Redskins' fans, who felt that the addition of an elite running back would be a critical factor in returning the team to the playoffs. And Portis appeared to be the perfect fit. In his first two seasons in Denver, Portis had exceeded 1,500 yards a season, and totaled 29 rushing touchdowns. He also averaged over 300 yards receiving, making him a legitimate dual threat.
But Denver had a key element that Washington lacked: a strong, talented and deep offensive line. Also, Denver's line blocking scheme was one well suited to Portis' shifting style. In Gibbs' scheme with the Redskins, Portis had less flexibility to make plays on his own, and his teammates on the line had considerably less success in opening holes for him. Although the Redskins ran Portis early and often to compensate for their struggles at quarterback, he never approached the success he had with the Broncos. Although Portis finished the season with 1,315 rushing yards, good for eighth in the league, he did so on 343 carries. That was the fifth-most carries in the NFL, and far more than he ever required as a Bronco. Worse, Portis finished the season with a yards per carry average of only 3.8, which was near the bottom of the league.
Blame for these weak performances, though, rests largely with weakness on the line and in the passing game, rather than with Portis himself. Portis remains the Redskins' unquestioned starter and star at the running back position heading into 2005 and beyond. His backup, Ladell Betts, is a capable power runner who provides adequate relief to Portis when needed, but Betts lacks the talent to challenge Portis for considerable playing time. Fullback Rock Cartwright was recently re-signed, and could find some use as a goal line and short yardage weapon for Washington. In 2003, he scored four times while rushing over 400 yards, but the coming of Portis effectively sent Cartwright to the bench. In 2004, he was limited to only two carries on the season. The Redskins' remaining running backs, Chad Morton and John Simon, are essentially special teams players who will receive only minimal carries on offensive snaps.
Fantasy Twist
Because of the overall weakness of Washington's offense, Portis is likely to be undervalued in many fantasy drafts, but should still be considered a first-round talent at his position. He should get 300+ carries again this season, and with even a small improvement in yards per attempt, Portis could find himself a top-five running back by season's end. He will need to improve on his woeful total of five rushing touchdowns, but that is also likely to occur. Portis remains in the game in goal line situations, unlike many comparable backs around the league, so the opportunities will be there if he and his teammates can punch them in. If Portis is available in the second half of the first round of a fantasy draft, he represents excellent value and should be strongly considered. Dynasty owners should select him even sooner, in light of his relative youth.
Ladell Betts merits little consideration from fantasy owners at this time, and his draft day value will be primarily as a handcuff player for Portis. Should Portis be injured, Betts is the likely candidate to replace him as starter, and has proven capable, though not exceptional, in such a role. He's also reasonably young, so dynasty owners should not hesitate to draft him early as a backup to Portis. Cartwright on the other hand, has no fantasy value at all, and would need to secure a legitimate on-field role before he would be worthy of such consideration.
Wide Receivers
The Redskins appear to have blamed much of their offensive woes in 2004 on the wide receiver corps, electing to trade star Laveranues Coles to the Jets, and trying unsuccessfully to move second starter Rod Gardner. The team acquired Jets' receiver Santana Moss in trade, and signed journeyman David Patten from New England as a free agent as well, making it likely that the corps will have an entirely new look in 2005.
But will the moves make the team appreciably better? Coles hauled in 90 passes for Washington last season, the seventh highest total in the NFL. The previous season, he caught 82. In contrast, Santana Moss' best season was 2003, when he caught just 74 passes with the Jets. Coles did see a decline in yardage and touchdown totals last season, from 1,204 yards and six touchdowns in 2003 to 950 and one in 2004. But that can easily be credited to the quarterback's play more so than Coles'. Coles also played through a toe injury for much of 2004, limiting his explosion, and likely contributing to his decline in yards per reception. There is some speculation, however, that the toe surgery Coles had this offseason will limit his performance in 2005, which could be part of the Redskins' decision to replace him.
But Coles' replacement has had health problems of his own. Moss has been in the league for four seasons, but has yet to last through a single one as a starter. He missed most of his rookie season with a knee injury, then in 2002 he played primarily as a punt returner. His best season came in 2003, when he started 12 games and was active for all 16. That year, he caught 74 passes for 1,105 yards and, significantly, 10 touchdowns. Moss missed time in 2004, though, with a hamstring injury that never fully healed, and finished with only 838 yards and five touchdowns.
On the other side of the field, starter Rod Gardner frustrated Redskins' coaches last season, to the point that he was encouraged to seek a trade in the offseason. Gardner, a first round pick of Washington's in the 2001 draft, displayed ample talent as the Redskins' number one receiver in 2002, but has struggled to adapt to being the second option. Of particular concern is Gardner's poor route running. His inability to run precise routes might have been tolerable when he was the quarterback's first read off the line. However, it's entirely unacceptable when his quarterback has to be able to find him after pressure has developed. Gardner also failed to fit comfortably into coach Gibbs' system, and earned a pedestrian 51 receptions to go with 650 receiving yards.
While Gardner has not been able to arrange a trade, it does appear that Washington will install David Patten as starter in place of him. Patten is now entering his ninth season, and the Redskins will be his fourth NFL team. His best seasons have come recently with the Patriots, where he twice has topped 800 yards. While Patten isn't likely to be a major force in the Redskins' offense, he is a polished route runner with good hands who can keep defenders honest. And by moving Gardner to the third spot on the depth chart, the Redskins add tremendous talent to their reserve unit as well.
Also on the roster are Taylor Jacobs and Darnerien McCants. Jacobs was Washington's second round pick in 2003, but missed most of his rookie season with a series of injuries. He saw limited playing time in 2004, but performed well in a handful of starts, and will likely be more of a factor in the Washington offense this year. McCants, on the other hand, was a project of the Spurrier era, and quickly fell out of favor with Gibbs. For various reasons, McCants found himself in the doghouse of the incoming staff, and barely played in 2004. His future with the team is very much in doubt, and if Washington fails to move Rod Gardner, McCants could be cut in training camp.
Fantasy Twist
There was a time when Santana Moss was a hot commodity in fantasy circles, prized for his speed, receiving ability, and considerable punt return skills. But his history of injury has raised enough concerns over his durability to drop him out of the first echelon of fantasy receivers. Factor in the usual decline for a receiver learning a new offensive scheme, and the overall weakness of Washington's passing game, and Moss is most likely to be drafted as a second receiver rather than a first-string starter.
Of particular note is that Moss' talent with the Jets lay in coming open down field by exploiting his speed and quickness against covering defensive backs. But the inability of Redskins' quarterbacks to connect reliably on deep passes could neutralize that facet of Moss' game. Thus, Moss is going to be something of a gamble for fantasy owners, even as a second starter. He'll see too many opportunities for his ranking to slip into the range of bench players, but owners should be cautious of expecting much from Moss this season.
Patten has never been a significant factor in fantasy circles, and his greatest utility in years past has been as a midseason free agent acquisition. His solid statistics in 2004, for instance, arose largely as a consequence of Patriots' starter Deion Branch being injured for much of the season. He should serve the Redskins reliably as a second receiving option, but his fantasy value will be limited. He's best targeted in the later rounds of a draft as a player to round out the bench and add depth to the receiver position. He's unlikely to produce enough to be a consistent fantasy starter in any event.
Gardner's status is sufficiently uncertain that at this point, it is inadvisable for fantasy owners to draft him. He's young enough to be worth a late round flyer in some dynasty leagues, but most fantasy owners would be better served holding off until his role is more evident. Dynasty league owners do need to consider Taylor Jacobs, however. Although his durability is becoming something of a concern, the long-term situation at receiver for Washington is sufficiently wide open that Jacobs could well emerge as a starter a few seasons hence. For owners looking several years into the future, Jacobs is actually a better selection than Gardner, even though he is likely to be available several rounds later.
Tight Ends
The Redskins' offensive scheme is not one which utilizes tight ends with any regularity. The official starter, Robert Royal, is primarily a blocker, and won't see a lot of offensive attention. A far more central role in the offense is the H-back position, a hybrid of the traditional fullback and tight end roles, that is ably filled in Washington by 2004 rookie Chris
ey. A tight end in college at Utah State, ey emerged in the second half of the season as a red zone threat and receiving talent. In eight starts, ey caught 37 passes for 314 yards, and amassed six touchdowns. That number is especially noteworthy, considering that the Redskins threw only 18 touchdowns last season. Accordingly, ey can be expected to remain a part of Washington's offensive scheme, and perhaps even have his role expanded in the coming season.
Fantasy Twist
While
ey is an exciting player to watch, and fits Gibbs' scheme perfectly, he isn't as deserving of fantasy consideration. The NFL is full of skilled receiving tight ends whose primary purpose is to catch passes downfield, and these will generally outperform an H-back like ey on a week-to-week basis. In most leagues, therefore, owners will have no reason to draft ey. Only in the largest and deepest fantasy leagues will he receive draft consideration.
Offensive Line
The Redskins' offensive line is not a particularly good one, and that has contributed greatly to their struggles in the passing and running game. Right tackle Chris Samuels is the star of the unit, but the rest is composed of journeymen like Derrick Dockery and former Ravens' center Casey Rabach. Holding down left tackle is still 43-year old Ray Brown, an emergency free agent signing late in the 2004 offseason. While these starters are adequate at best, the team lacks any appreciable depth, which makes it difficult to deal with injuries, and also costs the offense consistency whenever a starter needs a break. Surprisingly, the Redskins failed to draft an offensive lineman at any point in their 2005 draft, meaning the line's struggles will likely carry over to the 2005 regular season.
Fantasy Twist
Without a quality line in front of him, running back Clinton Portis will have trouble breaking the big running plays that make for exceptional fantasy scoring. While he'll carry often enough to be a reliable starter, he isn't likely to post many of the 20+ fantasy point outings that characterize the elite tier of fantasy running backs. Similarly, the quarterback play will be limited by the line's ability to contain opposing pass rushers. Owners in leagues which penalize quarterbacks for taking sacks should downgrade the Redskins' quarterbacks considerably.
Team Defense
In NFL terms, the Redskins were one of the league's elite defenses in 2004. The team allowed the third fewest yards per game, and second fewest rushing yards. They also ranked ninth in sacks. They even compared respectably to other teams in turnover totals. And the 2004 season also saw the emergence of several new stars on the defensive side of the ball, including rookie safety Sean Taylor, linebacker Lemar Marshall, and free agent acquisition Cornelius Griffin.
Factor in that the Redskins achieved their defensive success despite losing starters Lavar Arrington and Matt Bowen early in the season, and in spite of a moribund offensive unit, and it would seem reasonable to expect continued defensive success for Washington in 2005. The team's only major loss on defense was cornerback Fred Smoot, who will be replaced by veteran Walt Harris and first round rookie Carlos Rogers. Expect Washington to again be among the elite defenses in the NFL this season.
Fantasy Twist
Although the Redskins' defense was solid in overall terms, they were not a top-rated fantasy unit. For whatever reason - most likely having to do with poor starting field position - the unit did not have the success of other teams in limiting opponents' scoring. Also, the team's totals in critical fantasy point statistics, such as sacks and turnovers, was mediocre. Accordingly, Washington ranked in the bottom half of fantasy defenses, even while posting top five numbers in other areas.
This makes the Redskins' unit a prime candidate to dramatically improve their fantasy production this season. Defensive fantasy scoring fluctuates almost as wildly as kicker scoring from season to season, but the defenses that rise to the top are usually those with solid personnel in favorable situations. The weakness of Washington's offense may be enough to keep the defense out of the top five fantasy totals next year, but they should certainly make a respectable starting unit for owners willing to take a defensive unit late in their draft.
Kicker and Special Teams Unit
The Redskins have two kickers currently on their roster, and have as yet given no clear indication what they will do at the position come training camp. Veteran John Hall opened the season as Washington's starter, but suffered several injuries over the course of the 2004 campaign. His first replacement was Ola Kimrin, but after Kimrin converted just six of ten field goal attempts, he was replaced with third year veteran Jeff Chandler. Chandler managed just five of eight over the course of five games, implying clearly that Hall is the better kicker. And Hall is signed to a contract for three more seasons, but at a considerably higher price tag. The most likely outcome, therefore, is that Washington will stay with Hall as their starter.
Fantasy Twist
Hall is a respectable kicker, but not one of the elite in the league. As such, he's worthy of fantasy consideration only as one of a number of mid-tier kickers of comparable value. Fantasy owners should consider that a small improvement in Washington's offense could lead to considerably more field goal attempts, but also that continued offensive struggles could limit his opportunities. Hall is most likely the sort of kicker who will be picked up and cut frequently in fantasy leagues as various owners react to their kickers' bye weeks. Accordingly, he is worth little more than a final round draft pick in most fantasy leagues.
Individual Defensive Players
As far as the media is concerned, the Redskins' defensive superstar is linebacker Lavar Arrington. Arrington is indeed an explosive player, but he also plays recklessly, and sometimes without regard for the team's defensive game plan. Arrington is known for freewheeling in search of a big play, and often draws himself out of position in the pursuit of a sack. While this has the tendency to pad Arrington's fantasy point totals, it also frustrates his coaches, and may eventually lead to Arrington being sent elsewhere, or having his playing time reduced. Fantasy owners should give serious consideration to Arrington as a starting linebacker, for his playmaking ability alone, but need to be aware that he is considerably riskier than many comparably talented players.
The Redskins' other outside linebacker, Marcus Washington, is also worthy of fantasy consideration. He managed 87 tackles in 2004, to go with 4.5 sacks: reasonable production for a second starter at his position. Washington is one of the primary sack recipients in the Redskins' scheme, and should continue to have opportunities throughout the upcoming season.
The only lineman of note on the Redskins' defense is defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin, who managed six sacks along with a surprisingly high 56 tackles - third best among NFL defensive linemen. While tackles are usually inferior to defensive ends in fantasy point production, Griffin's sixth-best FP/G total puts his fantasy potential near the top of his position. While it's not safe to assume that Griffin will repeat his career-best totals, he should come close enough to make a legitimate starter, and would be an excellent pick in leagues which distinguish between ends and tackles.
Washington's secondary has undergone a complete makeover in the past two seasons, with cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot replaced by Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers. While not necessarily an upgrade, the replacements should be adequate to the task. Springs is not a great fantasy candidate, as the best cornerback on a defense isn't tested often enough. But he did produce six sacks last season, demonstrating a willingness for Redskins' coaches to bring him in blitz packages. That adds enough to his value to make him worthy of consideration for a bench spot in most fantasy leagues, and serious starting consideration in leagues that separate safeties from cornerbacks.
Rookie Carlos Rogers would be a good player to target late in a fantasy draft for a spot on the bench. It's not clear exactly how much playing time he'll get at the start of the season, but if he earns his way on the field, expect opponents to throw in his direction frequently, as they set about testing his skills. That should open ample opportunities for Rogers to make either interceptions, pass defenses, or tackles, all of which score fantasy points in most leagues.
At safety, the strong safety job could be an open competition between Matt Bowen and free agent signing Pierson Prioleau. But the free safety spot is guaranteed to be filled by Sean Taylor. While the free safety position is not usually a favorable one for fantasy production, Taylor is a playmaker that coaches will try to move into favorable positions as often as possible. Accordingly, Taylor would make a solid starting candidate in most fantasy leagues and should be drafted fairly high amongst his peers. In dynasty drafts, his relative youth is also an asset, making him a highly desirable selection.
