Coles: It ain't all that bad.
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 6:08 pm
I actually believe this Coles situation might not turn out as bad as many of us seem to believe.
I see this playing one of two ways:
1) Trade: the Redskins are not going to release Coles without getting something in return. All the press accounts say LC has all the leverage. I don’t see that at all. The only leverage he could possibly have is that he will hold out. But by the time it comes to holding out, i.e. training camp, there isn’t much that could be done. He would be past the March 1 date by which he had to waive his signing bonus. He could still be traded, as McCardell was last year, but that would be unlikely because of the cap hit. So the only way L.C. gets out of D.C. is to return the money, and get traded. In which case, the Skins could get some decent value for him and not take too bad of a cap hit.
2) The other possibility, and the one I have a hunch will play out, is that LC doesn’t agree to waive the remaining signing bonus payment and he remains with the team. Coles was not happy last year, but he was not a cancer in the locker room and he played hard, 90 catches hard. The Times story from Tuesday suggested that if LC is on the roster, he will play and he will play his hardest. I believe that to be the case. And in a best case scenario, Gibbs opens up the offense a little more (as he has already pledged to do) and Coles and Ramsey hook up a lot this year. Coles becomes a happy camper and stay through the remainder of his contract.
That's not too far fetched, considering the Redskins will upgrade their offensive line with the return of Jansen, and possibly other changes. That should help with pass protection and with the running game, opening up more play action possibilities. And if they can upgrade the receiver opposite Coles, that's will help LC as well.
That best case scenario, however, is predicated on Coles’ toe being healthy. That’s the risk of retaining him. It’s also one of the plusses of trading him. If the toe is a problem again this season, Coles’ value will plummet. There are enough teams out there this off-season that still consider Coles worth the risk. If his toe doesn’t heal before the season starts, that won’t be the case any longer. We might end up with just a mediocre receiver incapable of stretching defenses. So it may well be that we trade Coles this year and let another team take on the risk that he never regains his health and deep speed.
I think Boss Hog had an excellent analysis of the price we paid for Coles’ services for the first two years if he foregoes the final $5 million bonus payment. We would have paid a little more than $2.3 million a year for a top notch receiver in his prime years. That’s a pretty reasonable cost. I think you can take that out further in thinking that with every year, his salary goes up, and probably his value goes down a bit—just simple aging. He’s 27 now, receivers start to slow down in their 30s. His 06 and 07 cap hits are about $5 to $6 million. By the end of the seven years, you’re paying a top notch price for, probably, a second tier receiver. By trading him, you might be able to get better value out of the investment in what would have been the latter years of his contract.
I guess the bottom line is, I don’t think this is as bad as we might have all thought originally.
I see this playing one of two ways:
1) Trade: the Redskins are not going to release Coles without getting something in return. All the press accounts say LC has all the leverage. I don’t see that at all. The only leverage he could possibly have is that he will hold out. But by the time it comes to holding out, i.e. training camp, there isn’t much that could be done. He would be past the March 1 date by which he had to waive his signing bonus. He could still be traded, as McCardell was last year, but that would be unlikely because of the cap hit. So the only way L.C. gets out of D.C. is to return the money, and get traded. In which case, the Skins could get some decent value for him and not take too bad of a cap hit.
2) The other possibility, and the one I have a hunch will play out, is that LC doesn’t agree to waive the remaining signing bonus payment and he remains with the team. Coles was not happy last year, but he was not a cancer in the locker room and he played hard, 90 catches hard. The Times story from Tuesday suggested that if LC is on the roster, he will play and he will play his hardest. I believe that to be the case. And in a best case scenario, Gibbs opens up the offense a little more (as he has already pledged to do) and Coles and Ramsey hook up a lot this year. Coles becomes a happy camper and stay through the remainder of his contract.
That's not too far fetched, considering the Redskins will upgrade their offensive line with the return of Jansen, and possibly other changes. That should help with pass protection and with the running game, opening up more play action possibilities. And if they can upgrade the receiver opposite Coles, that's will help LC as well.
That best case scenario, however, is predicated on Coles’ toe being healthy. That’s the risk of retaining him. It’s also one of the plusses of trading him. If the toe is a problem again this season, Coles’ value will plummet. There are enough teams out there this off-season that still consider Coles worth the risk. If his toe doesn’t heal before the season starts, that won’t be the case any longer. We might end up with just a mediocre receiver incapable of stretching defenses. So it may well be that we trade Coles this year and let another team take on the risk that he never regains his health and deep speed.
I think Boss Hog had an excellent analysis of the price we paid for Coles’ services for the first two years if he foregoes the final $5 million bonus payment. We would have paid a little more than $2.3 million a year for a top notch receiver in his prime years. That’s a pretty reasonable cost. I think you can take that out further in thinking that with every year, his salary goes up, and probably his value goes down a bit—just simple aging. He’s 27 now, receivers start to slow down in their 30s. His 06 and 07 cap hits are about $5 to $6 million. By the end of the seven years, you’re paying a top notch price for, probably, a second tier receiver. By trading him, you might be able to get better value out of the investment in what would have been the latter years of his contract.
I guess the bottom line is, I don’t think this is as bad as we might have all thought originally.
Cut it off Now Coach Karl!!!