PREDICTIONS on What Will Happen with Cousins

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

I predict that if Cousins does leave by FA or a trade, we will start to hear calls for Nate Sudfeld to be the starter almost immediately. Speaking of Nate, did anyone hear any news about him at all last year? Did he show anything in practices to make the coaches believe he might take over some day?

All I recall hearing is that he's a project.

Right, but any news on how the project is progressing?

I haven't heard a thing but I'd guess very little time has been spent developing Sudfeld. It hasn't exactly been a priority.

Cavanaugh would have been the one developing him and he's now the OC, if only in name, so that limits his time as QB coach to develop anyone.

Obviously this is all just speculation on my part.

[HEROHAMO]

Most likely Kirk remains with the team under the tag. It still gives both Kirk and the team flexibility going forward.

It is very much a possibility that he ends up a 49er. Colin Kappernick wants to play for a new team and we all know Kyle Shanahan likes Kirk.

If Kirk is traded I believe it would be for a 1st and a 2nd or 3rd.

[riggofan]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

[DEHog]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

Of course not...They are moving on to Colt!

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

No. I think the front office leaked that as a negotiating tactic. It's not like they have much leverage here.

[riggofan]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

No. I think the front office leaked that as a negotiating tactic. It's not like they have much leverage here.

Yeah but I'm not concerned about the FO leaking that nonsense. I'm concerned about fans taking it under serious consideration!

[DarthMonk]

Well, by that token, I suppose someone could say Dez did catch that ball. But the NFL didn't call that a catch, and they wouldn't call this a trade either.

Your comparison doesn't hold water.

Your Dez example is completely different. "Catch" and "incomplete" are opposites. "Trade" and "compensating your loss with picks" are both exchanges of personnel and are identical in what they ultimately amount to - not opposites like catch and incomplete. I'm talking about the same outcome being described by slightly different words or phrases. Your Dez example refers to completely different outcomes - calling an incomplete a catch.


Your Dez example would more accurately reflect our current discussion as follows:

The word "incomplete" appears in the OFFICIAL PLAYING RULES OF THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE 21 times. It always refers to a pass.

The word "drop" appears in the OFFICIAL PLAYING RULES OF THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE 21 times. It refers to dropping the ball to kick it, a player dropping to a knee, or clipping - it never refers to a pass.

The Dez non-catch was an incomplete. It was also a drop but the NFL would never call it that.


You like to parse. I'll just say there is a difference between what the word "trade" as you might say connotes and denotes.


Still sure there is no wiggle room on compensation?

Suppose we tag him, SF offers $25 M per for 5 years with $75 M guaranteed. Could we not say "We intend to match unless you throw in a 2nd round pick on top of 2 1st rounders? Couldn't they say yes?

Or are such negotiations prohibited?

Is 2 1st rounders "written in stone?" Just askin'.

[DEHog]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

[SkinsJock]

there's no way that the 49ers would be stupid enough to give up more than 2 1st round picks ... is there?

I LOVE THIS IDEA

[DEHog]

I recall another team that did it for a college player

[riggofan]

Bruce Allen speaking today:

Allen said a Cousins deal is not as complicated as people think, and that they will get together with Cousins's agent and make a deal.

Dan Steinberg Verified account
‏@dcsportsbog

Allen says he knows no one at Redskins Park who's down on Cousins. Maybe a night guard watchman, he said.

Dan Steinberg ‏@dcsportsbog 16m16 minutes ago

Bruce Allen to 980: "Kirk's going to be our quarterback. We've said it."

JP Finlay ‏@JPFinlayCSN 18m18 minutes ago

Bruce Allen says #Redskins D has to get better, whole team has to get better, and the team has had free agent meetings and ID'd targets

It should be noted, Allen continues to call him KURT Cousins, so maybe he's tricking us all with this.

[markshark84]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

So basically, if we wanted more than 2 firsts, we'd have to sign him to a contract. Well in that case, couldn't we sign him to a one year contract worth $1 more than the franchise tag amount and then shop him for more than 2 firsts (pending a long-term deal with said team)? And before anyone responds ---- Yes, I know Cousins and his agent would never in a million years agree to that.

I know that 4 teams are interested and want to make a deal. One of those four interested teams, however, can't afford him (this is first-hand information --- at least the interest, the amount they'd expect to be a competitive offer for Cousins, and their current investments). One of those 4, however, will most likely end up with Garrapollo.

[DEHog]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

So basically, if we wanted more than 2 firsts, we'd have to sign him to a contract. Well in that case, couldn't we sign him to a one year contract worth $1 more than the franchise tag amount and then shop him for more than 2 firsts (pending a long-term deal with said team)? And before anyone responds ---- Yes, I know Cousins and his agent would never in a million years agree to that.

I know that 4 teams are interested and want to make a deal. One of those four interested teams, however, can't afford him (this is first-hand information --- at least the interest, the amount they'd expect to be a competitive offer for Cousins, and their current investments). One of those 4, however, will most likely end up with Garrapollo.

Technically yes and as you said Cousins would have to agree...

[Deadskins]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

This.

[Deadskins]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

No. I think the front office leaked that as a negotiating tactic. It's not like they have much leverage here.

Yeah but I'm not concerned about the FO leaking that nonsense. I'm concerned about fans taking it under serious consideration!

Who's taking it under serious consideration? I made a prediction that if the Skins did move on from Cousins that there would be Redskins fans (on this board) calling for Sudfeld to be the starter. Then I asked if anyone had heard anything about his progress as a project QB. Everyone is always talking about drafting a QB if we move on, but they seem to forget we already drafted one last year. I was curious if he was any good.

[riggofan]

Who's taking it under serious consideration? I made a prediction that if the Skins did move on from Cousins that there would be Redskins fans (on this board) calling for Sudfeld to be the starter. Then I asked if anyone had heard anything about his progress as a project QB. Everyone is always talking about drafting a QB if we move on, but they seem to forget we already drafted one last year. I was curious if he was any good.

Sorry my man, I wasn't commenting on you specifically. I was talking about the same "Redskins fans (on this board) calling for Sudfeld to be the starter". I think you're right about that, and its terrifying that those people are out there.

[SkinsJock]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

there's nothing to be concerned about - anyone that is "seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld" doesn't have a clue and is not worth wasting time on ...

although ... there are some fans here that do qualify

[riggofan]

Is nobody else concerned that people are seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld?

there's nothing to be concerned about - anyone that is "seriously talking about the possibility of moving on from Kirk to start Nate Sudfeld" doesn't have a clue and is not worth wasting time on ...

I agree completely, man. I'm just telling you there are actual fans out there who believe this stuff. Its nuts!

I guess my concern is that Snyder has shown this willingness to cave to the will of the fans so much. Firing people. Signing guys. The fans don't know jack, myself included. He needs to listen to the best football guys they have in house. Not saying he's on the verge of moving on to Nate Sudfeld, but you know...

[SkinsJock]

IF Dan Snyder get's 'involved' here again it will be really tough to continue to get better as we have done since the end of 2014

things are still not great here, however, we do have a QB and that is an important part of things but there's a lot of things happening around this franchise recently that are not good and maybe that's part of the reason that Cousins is having some misgivings and the FO is not exactly coming out and saying we're going to jump through hoops to keep him

Dan Snyder's input would be devastating

[OldSchool]

Dan Snyder burned through all my Redskin goodwill built up during my youth and the Jack Kent Cook era. After Griffin busted in 2013 and Snyder forced Shananhan to play Griffin and then Gruden in 2014 I was just about to bail on the Skins and started talking about picking a "second" team to follow also so I got some enjoyment out of the NFL season.

Then Mccloughan did the smart thing and elected to exercise the 5th option on Griffin's contract which gave Scot a compelling 16M stop the nonsense card to use with Snyder. Even then the Griffin insanity was so powerful in Snyder it took Mccloughan 4 hours to get Snyder to see the painfully obvious Griffin that stunk and they had to try Cousins who had flashed enough potential to merit being given a season to prove himself before the Skins lost both, Griffin to NFL bust archives and Cousins to a franchise that was willing to let him actually compete for a starting job. Gruden and Mccloughan showing some backbone spared Snyder everlasting NFL ignominy. What Gurden and Mccloughan failed to act and the Skins had flawed another season with Griffin instead of going with Cousins and Kirk had taken over another franchise in 2016 and produced record results? How bad would that have sucked for Snyder and his long suffering fanbase?

Now after Cousins smashed franchise passing records two years in a row and finished with a top 5 rating and went to the Pro Bowl Redskin fans are divided about whether to be happy and keep Cousins. Only here with this tormented fan base could the obvious be obscure for so many. Kirk's detractors may get their wish watch with chagrin as he wins a Super Bowl for a more appreciative owner and fan base.

Snyder and company seem in no rush to sign Cousins to a LTD so I can envision a repeat of last year. Unless they sign a LTD before March 1 I don't think it will get done and Kirk is gone after 2017 if not before. If Cousins gets the franchise tag I think he'd be smart to refuse to sign the 2017 version of a low ball offer. After doing it two years in a row he knows he can produce at a very high level so he should be confident he can have another great year in 2017 under the tag. So why negotiate with another team after signing the tender? Play again under a 1 year as knowing his leverage will be insurmountable in 2018. Then Skins will then be in the very painful position of tagging him for 34.5M knowing Cousins would content to play on another 1 year deal and be free the following year or watching Cousins walk and going with McCoy, Sudfield or the guy behind curtain number three with the Skins getting just what they deserve for jerking Cousins around, bupkis.

If they tag him for 34.5M they better be prepared for Kirk say thank you, sign it with no further interest interested in a LTD with the Redskins. Why would he want to sign a LTD then when the next franchise tag is unthinkable sum of 49.68M. If the Skins are reticent about making a generous offer and doing the deal before they tag him then I think Cousins will bet on himself again knowing he'll be able to get 34.5M next for 1 year or be absolutely free to cut his own deal with whatever club he chooses including of course the 49ers or the Rams with the Skins getting what they will deserve, bupkis.

[DarthMonk]

Dan Snyder burned through all my Redskin goodwill built up during my youth and the Jack Kent Cook era. After Griffin busted in 2013 and Snyder forced Shananhan to play Griffin and then Gruden in 2014 I was just about to bail on the Skins and started talking about picking a "second" team to follow also so I got some enjoyment out of the NFL season.

Then Mccloughan did the smart thing and elected to exercise the 5th option on Griffin's contract which gave Scot a compelling 16M stop the nonsense card to use with Snyder. Even then the Griffin insanity was so powerful in Snyder it took Mccloughan 4 hours to get Snyder to see the painfully obvious Griffin that stunk and they had to try Cousins who had flashed enough potential to merit being given a season to prove himself before the Skins lost both, Griffin to NFL bust archives and Cousins to a franchise that was willing to let him actually compete for a starting job. Gruden and Mccloughan showing some backbone spared Snyder everlasting NFL ignominy. What Gurden and Mccloughan failed to act and the Skins had flawed another season with Griffin instead of going with Cousins and Kirk had taken over another franchise in 2016 and produced record results? How bad would that have sucked for Snyder and his long suffering fanbase?

Now after Cousins smashed franchise passing records two years in a row and finished with a top 5 rating and went to the Pro Bowl Redskin fans are divided about whether to be happy and keep Cousins. Only here with this tormented fan base could the obvious be obscure for so many. Kirk's detractors may get their wish watch with chagrin as he wins a Super Bowl for a more appreciative owner and fan base.

Snyder and company seem in no rush to sign Cousins to a LTD so I can envision a repeat of last year. Unless they sign a LTD before March 1 I don't think it will get done and Kirk is gone after 2017 if not before. If Cousins gets the franchise tag I think he'd be smart to refuse to sign the 2017 version of a low ball offer. After doing it two years in a row he knows he can produce at a very high level so he should be confident he can have another great year in 2017 under the tag. So why negotiate with another team after signing the tender? Play again under a 1 year as knowing his leverage will be insurmountable in 2018. Then Skins will then be in the very painful position of tagging him for 34.5M knowing Cousins would content to play on another 1 year deal and be free the following year or watching Cousins walk and going with McCoy, Sudfield or the guy behind curtain number three with the Skins getting just what they deserve for jerking Cousins around, bupkis.

If they tag him for 34.5M they better be prepared for Kirk say thank you, sign it with no further interest interested in a LTD with the Redskins. Why would he want to sign a LTD then when the next franchise tag is unthinkable sum of 49.68M. If the Skins are reticent about making a generous offer and doing the deal before they tag him then I think Cousins will bet on himself again knowing he'll be able to get 34.5M next for 1 year or be absolutely free to cut his own deal with whatever club he chooses including of course the 49ers or the Rams with the Skins getting what they will deserve, bupkis.

So your prediction is ... ?

[DarthMonk]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

The phrase I have seen is "entitled to."

Can we shop a guy who is not under some sort of contract?

[OldSchool]

I think the most problable outcome is the Skins will offer Kirk top 5 money and get the deal before March 1. If they get the Kirk deal done before using a franchise tag it makes everything easier because they can allocate their time and energy to the draft and FA effort with rest of their budget and work their plan.

If it doesn't get done by March 1 then I think they are unwilling to pay Kirk top 5 money because they don't think the QB position is worth top 5 money. I don't anyone in the organization doubts Kirk is a top 5 performer or if they feel Kirk's beneath top 5 the difference isn't enough to warrant protracted negotiations.

I think if Kirk is tagged without a deal the issue is a far more intractable problem a belief on the part of SM that the position itself doesn't warrant that much money. If that is the case I think the Cousin camp will know that by March 1 when Kirk gets the tag. At that point I think Cousins will sign the voucher without soliciting other offers because he will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2017 with a wider range of choices since the acquiring team won't have to compensate the Redskins.

So my prediction is Kirk is 1 and done if no LTD in February.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

^^
I think the answer to this question, answerers the FT/Trade question. I’ve never seen wording that the FT compensation is negotiable or that the team get “at least” two first round draft picks. IMO this is the difference. In your example the Skins could just shop Cousins, asking GM’s if they would give more than 2 first rounder’s. I think the NFL took the negotiation out of it by setting the price to sign a FT player.

The phrase I have seen is "entitled to."

Can we shop a guy who is not under some sort of contract?

Sort of. There is an exclusive negotiating window prior to free agency.

There is also the possibility of working out a sign and trade but those are fairly rare. That requires a player helping a team for no good reason.

If a free agent player can be signed and traded then he can just negotiate directly with the team that wants him in most cases.

Obviously the exception to that is the exclusive franchise tag.

[DarthMonk]

This makes me feel we are more likely to retain Kirk:

Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is preparing for a Super Bowl on Sunday night. But he's also putting together a quarterback wishlist for his next gig: Head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.

NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport noted Sunday that if Shanahan cannot get his hands on Redskins quarterback and soon-to-be free agent Kirk Cousins, his plans would shift to Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo and Falcons backup Matt Schaub.

While the report will inevitably cause 49ers fans to panic when thinking about the 35-year-old Schaub as their starting quarterback, it is important to remember that Shanahan is simply in the market right now for signal callers who have worked with him in the past. With the exception of Garoppolo, all names associated with Shanahan have been players who worked directly underneath him. Garoppolo also runs a similar up-tempo offense in New England.

Schaub could be serving a similar function as Chase Daniel did with the Eagles this season; a coach on the field and an experienced backup.

In the three years Schaub worked directly with Shanahan in Houston (Shanahan was his quarterbacks coach in 2007 and offensive coordinator in 2008 and 2009), he had a 67 percent accuracy rate, 10,054 yards, 53 touchdowns and just 34 interceptions. He made one of his two Pro Bowls in that time.

Aside from a solid 2012, though, Schaub's career has fallen off. He has not started more than eight games in a season since 2013.

Shanahan has no choice but to cast a wide net at quarterback. With quality signal callers at a premium, Shanahan may opt to use his first-round pick on a quarterback but rope in a veteran who can hold the fort down. With plans ranging from the high-level Cousins and the high-upside Garoppolo all the way down to Schaub, it shows just how many balls are in the air for the 37-year-old, soon-to-be first-time head coach.

Unfortunately, he cannot bring Matt Ryan with him.