The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

riggofan wrote:Its a fair comment from BGF. I don't personally think that losing Garcon and/or DJax is going to cause Cousins to fall apart, but losing a guy like DJax does seem like it might be less likely he's passing for 4000 yards next season. That guy is a home run hitter, no doubt about it.

The Skins are either about to pay him a fortune or franchise tag him again to find out.

Yes and no. I mean, don't you agree that the team will replace Garcon and Djax with someone? That's a lot of money freed up by those two players. I'm sure they'll bring in another decent WR, pretty much have to.

I still think they'll try to Garcon back too, but who knows if that will pan out.

markshark84 wrote:

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

markshark84 wrote:It's a story as old as time. And that is another reason I am so bullish on Cousins. Only the "great" QBs have this ability. Rodgers, Stafford, and co. still get sacked. They don't have the ability to make the quick reads that Cousins does. Very very very few QBs do. It's seriously impressive.

We'll see how great his reads are when his X and Y receivers aren't two of the best in the game.

First off, getting the ball out quickly has NOTHING to do with whom (or the talent of) a QB is throwing to. NOTHING. Can't emphasis that enough.

It does in that, on a hot read, the receiver has to be able to break free if the QB is going to go that way. Otherwise he would have to pull it down and take the sack.

riggofan wrote:

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:Yes, Cousins can continue to get rid of the ball "quickly" but when his receivers are average and aren't where they need to be his completion percentage will take a dive and his interceptions will go up.

You seem to be talking now about a quick RELEASE. What you wrote earlier was about a quick READ. "We'll see how great his reads are when his X and Y receivers aren't two of the best in the game." That was just confusing.

It doesn't do much good to read the play quickly and then be slow with the release, now does it?

For the purposes of this discussion they are one and the same.

riggofan wrote:Yes and no. I mean, don't you agree that the team will replace Garcon and Djax with someone? That's a lot of money freed up by those two players. I'm sure they'll bring in another decent WR, pretty much have to.

I still think they'll try to Garcon back too, but who knows if that will pan out.

Yes, but this digresses back to my original statement. They won't be two of the best in the game. Anyone else will be a downgrade from Jackson's deep threat capabilities. Not many catch the ball as well as Garcon. Those who do are not usually available in free agency.

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:

markshark84 wrote:First off, getting the ball out quickly has NOTHING to do with whom (or the talent of) a QB is throwing to. NOTHING. Can't emphasis that enough.

To hell it doesn't. The QB can't just count to x and throw the ball without any knowledge or confidence his receivers are where they should be or close enough to make a play on the ball.

Yes, Cousins can continue to get rid of the ball "quickly" but when his receivers are average and aren't where they need to be his completion percentage will take a dive and his interceptions will go up.

Without Jackson's speed to stretch the defense there will be more defenders to make plays on those passes.

Without Garcon's hands on 3rd downs there will be more attention paid to Reed.

It's not a vacuum. Everything affects everything else.

This strategy of *f$ck* the offense and fix the defense is not one I'd care to see employed.

I agree with everything you are saying here. I just don't know how this relates to Cousins' ability to make quick reads and dissect a DEF. You either do it or not. Whether the WR makes a play doesn't mean the QB can or cannot make reads.

And I agree that a QB can't just count to x and throw the ball without any knowledge or confidence his receivers are where they should be or close enough to make a play on the ball --- because that would have nothing to do with making a proper read. It's the opposite; a QB has to read the DEF and make a throw quickly based on the situation ---- regardless of how good or bad the personnel he has are. What I maintain is that Cousins can quickly obtain that knowledge and know where his WRs will be and release the ball quickly irrespective of whom he is throwing the ball to or where. That is a QB's job. Make it work --- and he did in 2016 with different lineups, OLs, WRs, TEs, RBs, etc. This is also supported by how many players he gets the ball to; we had 6 players with nearly 50 receptions or more (in 2013 we had 1 player with 50+ receptions; in 2012 we had 0 --- this year DAL had 3, OAK had 2, NE had 3, PIT had 2). Not only did the production from our "star" WRs go up, but also the production of everyone else (vs. previous seasons without Cousins).

And yes, Jackson spreads the field. BUT --- Cousins had HIGHLY productive games when Jackson wasn't in the lineup. Garcon has great hands, but Cousins had HIGHLY productive games when Reed was out.

And while I agree that everyone affects everyone else (I HIGHLY agree) --- certain players can do it with anyone: Brady, Brees, Manning, Wilson, Roeth, Wilson, Rivers, etc. I maintain that Cousins can as long as he has NFL talent at WR (not like we had back in the mid to late 2000s). I don't believe Garcon and Jackson are good enough to improve Cousins' ability to make reads and increase his production by 1,000+ yards and 10 TDs a season --- especially when neither of them are elite.

why can't we keep Cousins at QB, both Garcon and Jackson PLUS add a good RB and add all the FA defensive players we need

answer - I'm not sure we can afford that ... oh!

we're not suddenly Super Bowl contenders next season with Cousins - NO WAY! - it's going to take time
while some think that Cousins is already an elite QB, the FO does not seem to think that is happening

so we're faced with both building a franchise and finding a QB that will become an elite QB - This FO can do that - it will take time



no matter what happens with Cousins - we need to find his replacement

Deadskins wrote:

markshark84 wrote:

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:We'll see how great his reads are when his X and Y receivers aren't two of the best in the game.

First off, getting the ball out quickly has NOTHING to do with whom (or the talent of) a QB is throwing to. NOTHING. Can't emphasis that enough.

It does in that, on a hot read, the receiver has to be able to break free if the QB is going to go that way. Otherwise he would have to pull it down and take the sack.

Well, its not that simple as it depends on where the blitz is coming from, your formation, personnell, etc. Certain hot route options use 2 players on the same side of the field, others have the RB run out on a check down (in addition to the WR hot), some are the one no one situation (in isolation) with the RB staying to block. And typically when a QB calls a hot route ---- the read was made BEFORE the ball was even snapped.

riggofan wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:Cousins is a good NFL QB but he was certainly helped by having some very good receivers

Of course he was. What QB wouldn't be helped by that?

Its a fair comment from BGF. I don't personally think that losing Garcon and/or DJax is going to cause Cousins to fall apart, but losing a guy like DJax does seem like it might be less likely he's passing for 4000 yards next season. That guy is a home run hitter, no doubt about it.

Of course qb's are helped but when you have a top 3 corp if not the best in the league that really helps. The way our offense is setup, it isn't really based upon matchups however more for reading coverages. With that said, premiere talent isn't needed for us. But I do think you would see a nose dive in yards per pass without Jackson or 3rd down completion percentage without a Reed if he was injured per say. Those two guys are the best at what they do. DJax is the best WR deep threat since Randy Moss and one of the best ever, while Jordan Reed avg the best catch ratio's in the NFL the last 5 years.

mastdark81 wrote:Of course qb's are helped but when you have a top 3 corp if not the best in the league that really helps. The way our offense is setup, it isn't really based upon matchups however more for reading coverages. With that said, premiere talent isn't needed for us.

I agree with this --- except I don't consider our WR corps to be "best in the league"; top 10 perhaps. Now I agree our offense is one of scheme, which is why Crowder is just as successful as a Garcon or Jackson. And why Davis, a WILDLY inferior talent when compared to Reed, can come in and at least hold his own. Our OFF is very complex; much more than I think anyone truly understands. And that is why I think Cousins is so important. We fill in someone that isn't McCoy, the learning curve will be similar to what Matt Ryan had last year with Kyles (and McCoy is a SERIOUS downgrade and honestly not a terrific fit for the system) --- and that is only if they are top talent; a mediocre to poor QB can't last in our system. In essence, it will be a throw away season given our DEF ---- so much so that I wouldn't even buy my sunday ticket (and you'd probably hear a lot less of me on here --- which some on here may like.....).

mastdark81 wrote:But I do think you would see a nose dive in yards per pass without Jackson or 3rd down completion percentage without a Reed if he was injured per say. Those two guys are the best at what they do. DJax is the best WR deep threat since Randy Moss and one of the best ever, while Jordan Reed avg the best catch ratio's in the NFL the last 5 years.

Yards per pass, absolutely. Jackson is a deep threat guy and caught the majority of our deep balls. That alone will hurt the ypp stat --- however, I am less concern with that stat as I am with what Jackson does to spread the field. With our scheme, that is very important. Assuming we don't resign Jackson and/or pick up a similar talent via FA, my bet is Crowder would assume that role --- and do so quite well. Hopefully we can get Garcon back and Doctson will be healthy. You can never count on Reed, so I never assume he will ever be "healthy and available".

Reed tangent --- with his concussion situation, he should have retired. He talks about supporting "his family" but he's already made $13M and will NEVER see the back end of his contract ---- never. Honestly, if he gets injured in 2017 and misses more than 1 or 2 games, he'll have to either restructure his current deal and take less or he'll get cut (an oft-injured TE just isn't worth a 10M cap hit in 2018).

Ok back to it --- I think people tend to overestimate how important skills position players are. Yes, they are important, but their shelf lives are very short and can be inconsistent. You need a certain amount of talent in order to be productive, but good QBs in good systems get it done with an assortment of players. Brees, Brady, Luck, Rodgers, Rivers, Wilson, Manning (both), etc. Even Stafford's production didn't drop off when he lost Megatron (and they had a better record). There are a few guys like Julio Jones that are worth every penny, but in this day in age, it is the QB, OL, and scheme that are most important.

Now, I do disagree with your assessment of DJack --- maybe. I consider him a top 5 "deep threat WR", but not overall. His presence will be missed definitely --- but his skills are fleeting. He's turning 30 and that hamstring will only get worse. You mention Reed as helping on 3Downs, when he didn't play our 3D conversion rates were:
PHI: 7-13
DET: 9-15
AZ: 5-11
CHI: 8-13
Without Reed: 29 of 52 or 58%
For the season: 90 of 199 or 45%

So, what I am saying is that having a couple good options at WR is great and having a good OL and RB would be EVEN BETTER, but Cousins is the QB and he needs to make it work. Skills positions players come and go. If I were the GM, at least from the OFF side, I'd be less concerned about our WR situation and focus more (outside of Cousins) on improving our OL and RB situations. If you take away Garcon and DJack, we still have Crowder and Doctson and I know there will be FA WRs that will sprout up.

markshark84 wrote:

Deadskins wrote:

markshark84 wrote:First off, getting the ball out quickly has NOTHING to do with whom (or the talent of) a QB is throwing to. NOTHING. Can't emphasis that enough.

It does in that, on a hot read, the receiver has to be able to break free if the QB is going to go that way. Otherwise he would have to pull it down and take the sack.

Well, its not that simple as it depends on where the blitz is coming from, your formation, personnell, etc. Certain hot route options use 2 players on the same side of the field, others have the RB run out on a check down (in addition to the WR hot), some are the one no one situation (in isolation) with the RB staying to block. And typically when a QB calls a hot route ---- the read was made BEFORE the ball was even snapped.

Of course, but if that receiver isn't open then the quick release means nothing, because he can't go to him without risking the INT.

Deadskins wrote:

markshark84 wrote:

Deadskins wrote:It does in that, on a hot read, the receiver has to be able to break free if the QB is going to go that way. Otherwise he would have to pull it down and take the sack.

Well, its not that simple as it depends on where the blitz is coming from, your formation, personnell, etc. Certain hot route options use 2 players on the same side of the field, others have the RB run out on a check down (in addition to the WR hot), some are the one no one situation (in isolation) with the RB staying to block. And typically when a QB calls a hot route ---- the read was made BEFORE the ball was even snapped.

Of course, but if that receiver isn't open then the quick release means nothing, because he can't go to him without risking the INT.

And in that case, I maintain that whether or not the hot route is open depends on the read the QB makes at the line --- the WR just runs a quick route. Honestly, you could say that the WR/TE/RB "skill/talent" is even less important on a hot route........

Coming back to my original statement, getting the ball out quickly/making the correct reads isn't about supporting talent ---- and I think the hot route is actually a good example of that in that the "read" is the most important part in making the play successful. A hot route is basically a timing route being thrown to WHOMEVER is in the advantageous position --- irrespective of their skill.

Kory Lichtensteiger just retired. $3.5MM cap savings. Leaves Spencer Long as only center on roster.

markshark84 wrote:

mastdark81 wrote:Of course qb's are helped but when you have a top 3 corp if not the best in the league that really helps. The way our offense is setup, it isn't really based upon matchups however more for reading coverages. With that said, premiere talent isn't needed for us.

I agree with this --- except I don't consider our WR corps to be "best in the league"; top 10 perhaps. Now I agree our offense is one of scheme, which is why Crowder is just as successful as a Garcon or Jackson. And why Davis, a WILDLY inferior talent when compared to Reed, can come in and at least hold his own. Our OFF is very complex; much more than I think anyone truly understands. And that is why I think Cousins is so important. We fill in someone that isn't McCoy, the learning curve will be similar to what Matt Ryan had last year with Kyles (and McCoy is a SERIOUS downgrade and honestly not a terrific fit for the system) --- and that is only if they are top talent; a mediocre to poor QB can't last in our system. In essence, it will be a throw away season given our DEF ---- so much so that I wouldn't even buy my sunday ticket (and you'd probably hear a lot less of me on here --- which some on here may like.....).

mastdark81 wrote:But I do think you would see a nose dive in yards per pass without Jackson or 3rd down completion percentage without a Reed if he was injured per say. Those two guys are the best at what they do. DJax is the best WR deep threat since Randy Moss and one of the best ever, while Jordan Reed avg the best catch ratio's in the NFL the last 5 years.

Yards per pass, absolutely. Jackson is a deep threat guy and caught the majority of our deep balls. That alone will hurt the ypp stat --- however, I am less concern with that stat as I am with what Jackson does to spread the field. With our scheme, that is very important. Assuming we don't resign Jackson and/or pick up a similar talent via FA, my bet is Crowder would assume that role --- and do so quite well. Hopefully we can get Garcon back and Doctson will be healthy. You can never count on Reed, so I never assume he will ever be "healthy and available".

Reed tangent --- with his concussion situation, he should have retired. He talks about supporting "his family" but he's already made $13M and will NEVER see the back end of his contract ---- never. Honestly, if he gets injured in 2017 and misses more than 1 or 2 games, he'll have to either restructure his current deal and take less or he'll get cut (an oft-injured TE just isn't worth a 10M cap hit in 2018).

Ok back to it --- I think people tend to overestimate how important skills position players are. Yes, they are important, but their shelf lives are very short and can be inconsistent. You need a certain amount of talent in order to be productive, but good QBs in good systems get it done with an assortment of players. Brees, Brady, Luck, Rodgers, Rivers, Wilson, Manning (both), etc. Even Stafford's production didn't drop off when he lost Megatron (and they had a better record). There are a few guys like Julio Jones that are worth every penny, but in this day in age, it is the QB, OL, and scheme that are most important.

Now, I do disagree with your assessment of DJack --- maybe. I consider him a top 5 "deep threat WR", but not overall. His presence will be missed definitely --- but his skills are fleeting. He's turning 30 and that hamstring will only get worse. You mention Reed as helping on 3Downs, when he didn't play our 3D conversion rates were:
PHI: 7-13
DET: 9-15
AZ: 5-11
CHI: 8-13
Without Reed: 29 of 52 or 58%
For the season: 90 of 199 or 45%

So, what I am saying is that having a couple good options at WR is great and having a good OL and RB would be EVEN BETTER, but Cousins is the QB and he needs to make it work. Skills positions players come and go. If I were the GM, at least from the OFF side, I'd be less concerned about our WR situation and focus more (outside of Cousins) on improving our OL and RB situations. If you take away Garcon and DJack, we still have Crowder and Doctson and I know there will be FA WRs that will sprout up.

I won't go too deep into it b/c what we are talking about doesn't necessarily equate wins but we no worst than 3 as a receiving group. No team in the nfl is as deep as Jordan Reed, Desean Jackson, Garcon, Crowder, Vernon Davis, Chris Thompson as receiving threats...hell even Niles Paul when healthy bangs most NFL 2nd string te's. DJax has the highest yards per catch average almost in modern day football for a guy over 300 career catches...and he's still doing it on our team! As far as reliability no one out matches Reed's catch ratio the last 10 years and these are facts between the two guys:
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/bl ... ndervalued

Cousins didn't make DJax...nor Reed. I think Crowder benefits from Cousins and Chris Thompson based upon our offense. That is about it.

[

SkinsJock wrote:Cousins is a good NFL QB but he was certainly helped by having some very good receivers

I swear I think John Keim is lurking on this message board somewhere. Check those IPs for Bristol, CT...

John Keim ‏@john_keim 7m7 minutes ago

For those saying KC needs talent around him. Well, duh. Almost every QB does. If u think any can do, that's fine. Don't pay.

I'm gonna throw a name out there.

What about Joe Mixon in the 3rd or 4th round?
Let's say we go defense in the 1st and 2nd round. Should we take a chance on a player who has 1st round talent but has had trouble off the field?

mastdark81 wrote:I won't go too deep into it b/c what we are talking about doesn't necessarily equate wins but we no worst than 3 as a receiving group. No team in the nfl is as deep as Jordan Reed, Desean Jackson, Garcon, Crowder, Vernon Davis, Chris Thompson as receiving threats...hell even Niles Paul when healthy bangs most NFL 2nd string te's. DJax has the highest yards per catch average almost in modern day football for a guy over 300 career catches...and he's still doing it on our team! As far as reliability no one out matches Reed's catch ratio the last 10 years and these are facts between the two guys:
http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/bl ... ndervalued

Cousins didn't make DJax...nor Reed. I think Crowder benefits from Cousins and Chris Thompson based upon our offense. That is about it.

I think that having a "top 3" receiving core ABSOLUTELY equates to wins --- because if it doesn't, why are we even talking about it? Those players help the QB --- who wins games. It's not direct, but it helps.

I agree with much of what you are saying, but I struggle with "top 3". Reed can't stay on the field, Davis and Thompson aren't anything special. Crowder is good, but Cousins helps him. DJack is a VERY good WR. Garcon is decent, but his age is showing and does nothing after the catch. None of these guys are on the field all at the same time due to injuries.

It's a decent core, but no one other than DJack could even remotely be considered "dynamic" or a player that forces DCs to scheme against.

I also think our receiving "core" look better due to our OFF and Cousins' 5,000 passing yards. If we had a strong run game, the reduction in production of Davis, Thompson and Garcon or Crowder would be somewhat substantial --- to the point I think most would remove them from this list.

Cousins is a good NFL QB - end of story - our priorities here are to build a complete team not to just have a good QB

this is a team game - if the receivers don't have a good QB or the QB does not have good receivers, the offense does not work as well
Cousins doesn't make the offense work better if he doesn't have a good supporting group around him anymore than having good receivers makes an offense work better with a bad QB

Cousins has shown that he's a good QB and hopefully he wants to play here for a salary that means we can keep all the other good players and add a few more