The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

DarthMonk wrote:Dream scenario:

Seattle and Atlanta lose a few more. Detroit keeps winning.

Seeding - COW, DET, SEA, ATL, WAS, NYG

We win @ ATL and NYG wins @ SEA.

We win at DET and NYG wins @ COW.

We host NFC title game and defeat NYG.

We beat Raiders in Super Bowl 38-9.

I love this but I'd also be happy if we can get a playoff game against the pukes - they are not that good

SkinsJock wrote:

riggofan wrote: that puke RB is not getting 100 yards this week

We rolled up 128 rushing yards against the Vikings, but Zeke Elliott won't be able to? I'll take that action.

really?

Zeke 'dazzled' us with 86 yards last night on 20 carries AND 30 of those were on 1 carry

The Dallas win last night over Minnesota was great for us. Minnesota's chances of making the playoffs nose-dived from almost 50% to 32%.

Beating Arizona would make our chances jump considerably. Right now we are at about 54% up from just under 50%.

WE WANT DALLAS .... WE WANT DALLAS

DarthMonk wrote:The Dallas win last night over Minnesota was great for us. Minnesota's chances of making the playoffs nose-dived from almost 50% to 32%.

Beating Arizona would make our chances jump considerably. Right now we are at about 54% up from just under 50%.

This AZ game is big. I actually don't really like the matchup, but we'll see.

SkinsJock wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:

riggofan wrote: that puke RB is not getting 100 yards this week

We rolled up 128 rushing yards against the Vikings, but Zeke Elliott won't be able to? I'll take that action.

really?

Zeke 'dazzled' us with 86 yards last night on 20 carries AND 30 of those were on 1 carry

Oh yes. Zeke "only" got 86 yards on 20 yards. A mere 4.3 yards per carry and a touchdown. And the pukes rushed for 123 yards on the unrushable Vikings.

Not really sure what I was thinking earlier this week.

DarthMonk wrote:Dream scenario:

Seattle and Atlanta lose a few more. Detroit keeps winning.

Seeding - COW, DET, SEA, ATL, WAS, NYG

We win @ ATL and NYG wins @ SEA.

We win at DET and NYG wins @ COW.

We host NFC title game and defeat NYG.

We beat Raiders in Super Bowl 38-9.

DUDE!

markshark84 wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:The Dallas win last night over Minnesota was great for us. Minnesota's chances of making the playoffs nose-dived from almost 50% to 32%.

Beating Arizona would make our chances jump considerably. Right now we are at about 54% up from just under 50%.

This AZ game is big. I actually don't really like the matchup, but we'll see.

Ugh, I remember how they use to trolloping The Redkins, when they were in the same division.

the puke RB did NOT get 100 yards despite your statement "I'll take that action"

if we get them again, he will not be getting 100 yards - he can be stopped

this kid is good but really good RBs cannot be stopped

riggofan wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:RB is not getting 100 yards again this week

We rolled up 128 rushing yards against the Vikings, but the Zeke Elliott won't be able to?

I'll take that action.

Zeke finished with 89? On like 50 carries ..... pay up!!

SkinsJock wrote: the puke RB did NOT get 100 yards despite your statement "I'll take that action"

if we get them again, he will not be getting 100 yards - he can be stopped

this kid is good but really good RBs cannot be stopped

Better forget about the Cowboys and Zeke's 100 yards for now, buddy. You've got things a ton more important to obsess over.

this team is going to have trouble making the playoffs if we continue to call STUPID plays on offense like we have all season

we have lost 2 games to the pukes that we could have won let alone find a way to win a couple of other games

this team was in control of their own destiny and now looks like they are going to hope for help to even make the playoffs

good teams don't need to hope for help - time for a change at the top

CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS - Carolina with 4 wins and Chicago with 3 wins still have a chance at making the playoffs

This loss REALLY hurt.

Our chances of making the playoffs dropped to 39%.

Tampa's rose to 54%.

The Giants are at 65%.

DarthMonk wrote:This loss REALLY hurt.

Our chances of making the playoffs dropped to 39%.

Tampa's rose to 54%.

The Giants are at 65%.

We still have to play the vaGiants again. All is not lost.

SkinsJock wrote: the puke RB did NOT get 100 yards despite your statement "I'll take that action"

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:This loss REALLY hurt. Our chances of making the playoffs dropped to 39%. Tampa's rose to 54%. The Giants are at 65%.

We still have to play the vaGiants again. All is not lost.

this team has clearly shown that it's a lot better than most think - who makes these odds up?

looking at the remaining schedule we end up 10-5-1 - maybe the vagiants can get to 10-6

the buccaneers are maybe winning 2 more

WE WANT DALLAS and it doesn't matter where we play them

SkinsJock wrote:who makes these odds up?

I would like to know how they are arriving at those odds. Are they saying every game is a 50/50 proposition? Luckily it doesn't work that way.

we have the eagles, panthers, bears and the vagiants

I think everyone agrees that we should win each of those games - well maybe not 'everyone'

we just need to take care of the eagles this week

If this FO believes that the way they want to build a team is the best thing to do they will continue to do that

we have seen an amazing turnaround since Scot came in - he will continue to do what he believes in - that's good enough for me

SkinsJock wrote:

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:This loss REALLY hurt. Our chances of making the playoffs dropped to 39%. Tampa's rose to 54%. The Giants are at 65%.

We still have to play the vaGiants again. All is not lost.

this team has clearly shown that it's a lot better than most think - who makes these odds up?

looking at the remaining schedule we end up 10-5-1 - maybe the vagiants can get to 10-6

the buccaneers are maybe winning 2 more

WE WANT DALLAS and it doesn't matter where we play them

People who understand probability calculate these odds.

You are counting on us winning out. I hope you are right but it is unlikely.

Tampa Bay just beat Kansas City, Seattle, and San Diego and they are ahead of us now.

We will be fortunate to get in.

As I always say I'm happy if we are playing meaningful games in December, after what this franchise has been through, it's nice to see back to back season where we are battling for a playoff spot!!

DarthMonk wrote:People who understand probability calculate these odds.

You are counting on us winning out. I hope you are right but it is unlikely.

Tampa Bay just beat Kansas City, Seattle, and San Diego and they are ahead of us now.

We will be fortunate to get in.

We just need the vaGiants to lose another game besides our matchup. I'm feeling like that is pretty likely, but you never know. Also, do you agree that these "People who understand probability" are considering each game as a 50/50 proposition? Or do you think they are creating odds for each matchup, and then figuring that into the overall picture?

Deadskins wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:People who understand probability calculate these odds.

You are counting on us winning out. I hope you are right but it is unlikely.

Tampa Bay just beat Kansas City, Seattle, and San Diego and they are ahead of us now.

We will be fortunate to get in.

We just need the vaGiants to lose another game besides our matchup. I'm feeling like that is pretty likely, but you never know. Also, do you agree that these "People who understand probability" are considering each game as a 50/50 proposition? Or do you think they are creating odds for each matchup, and then figuring that into the overall picture?

I think the latter.

Typical probabilities might look like this for us down the stretch:

46% to win at Philly, 57% to win hosting Carolina, 62% to win at Chicago, 60% to win hosting NYG.

Typical probabilities might look like this for Tampa Bay:

66% to win hosting New Orleans, 25% to win at Dallas, 48% to win at New Orleans, 57% to win hosting Carolina.

Meanwhile similar calcs are done for all relevant teams.

Then 100,000 sims are run that reflect the probabilities playing out with each other and in 39% of those sims we make the playoffs.

For example, there is a (.54)(.66) = 36% chance that we will lose to Philly AND Tampa Bay will beat New Orleans.

Converseley, there is a (.46)(.34) = 16% chance that we win AND they lose.

One can quibble with the weekly probabilities and everything changes from week to week but this is where we stand now with unemotional analysis.

Deadskins wrote:We just need the vaGiants to lose another game besides our matchup. I'm feeling like that is pretty likely, but you never know. Also, do you agree that these "People who understand probability" are considering each game as a 50/50 proposition? Or do you think they are creating odds for each matchup, and then figuring that into the overall picture?

I personally think the Giants are the most overrated team in the division. They have Dallas, Philly, Lions and Skins on the schedule remaining. Can lose any of those games.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Tampa. Their last four games are Saints twice, Dallas and Carolina.