The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

DEHog wrote:I’d like to think that BPA is the way to go, but there always seems to be a reason to do otherwise and SC is no different. Probably his biggest whiff was taking (or not trading down) Alex Smith over Rodgers. Was Alex Smith the BPA in that entire draft? QB seems to be that one position that throws draft strategies out the window. Looking over his draft history (with the 9ers, he wasn’t “the man” in Seattle) he’s been OK, not great…not horrible. It’s interesting that he’s already said no position is off the table, including QB, nor should it be! It’s also interesting to see the posts here; people are already naming and suggesting positions we should draft vs. BPA. Looking over SC history he’s not afraid to trade up or down, should be fun to watch a real GM run things for a change. Hope the team and the fan base give him some time to build!!

I assume by SC you mean SM?

DEHog wrote:I’d like to think that BPA is the way to go, but there always seems to be a reason to do otherwise and SC is no different. Probably his biggest whiff was taking (or not trading down) Alex Smith over Rodgers. Was Alex Smith the BPA in that entire draft? QB seems to be that one position that throws draft strategies out the window. Looking over his draft history (with the 9ers, he wasn’t “the man” in Seattle) he’s been OK, not great…not horrible. It’s interesting that he’s already said no position is off the table, including QB, nor should it be! It’s also interesting to see the posts here; people are already naming and suggesting positions we should draft vs. BPA. Looking over SC history he’s not afraid to trade up or down, should be fun to watch a real GM run things for a change. Hope the team and the fan base give him some time to build!!

I think people are still misunderstanding the BPA strategy. It doesn't necessarily mean that you just line up 200 players and say this is the best guy, this is the #2 best guy, this is the #3 guy. Like you've pointed out, if you just did that you might end up drafting five WRs in a row or something.

The BPA strategy means you assign players a grade based on a bunch of factors: the player's talent, the value of the position (which is why the best QB goes in the first round and the best Kicker goes in the sixth), and also the needs of the team. When you get to your pick, the highest graded guy may or may not be the position with your greatest need.

I agree with you about Scot's willingness to make trades, but I'm curious about his trading up in the draft. Where in his draft history has he traded picks to move up? Just curious about that. In his interviews last week, he was pretty adamant about not trading away picks.

Well that’s my point, when I hear a GM say they take BPA…it doesn’t always seem to be the case.
Here are a few trades he made


He sent Denver a second- and third-round pick to obtain the 22nd overall choice, which they used on defensive end Manny Lawson, who was a full-time starter in five years with San Francisco.
He traded two seventh-round choices to Jacksonville for a sixth-round choice, which they used on defensive end Melvin Oliver.
He sent a fourth-round choice plus a 2008 first-rounder to New England for the 28th overall pick in 2007 (He took Joe Staley).

I just hope that this franchise makes a plan and let's this new GM and the NFL people run things for a while ..

does anyone really think that things have a chance at getting better if we continue managing this franchise the way we have lately? How bad a job could real NFL people do? Do you really think that if we have a poor draft, that things are going to continue to be bad here - I could care less who we draft or bring in - as long as the people making the decisions are not the same people that we've been using - that way is Dan Snyder's method and we know that does not work - having NFL people make decisions and making a plan for the future is something we have not tried - it will work

if things don't get better here with the NFL guys running things - I will not say "Dan Snyder's involved, that's the problem"

we do know that if he doesn't stop meddling and and give these guys time to fix this mess he's created, we will not get better

building through the draft + having a plan is just the right way to do things

we've tried the free agent, bring in the 'best available player or coach' route - that was hopeless

DEHog wrote:Well that’s my point, when I hear a GM say they take BPA…it doesn’t always seem to be the case.

I'm not really sure how any of us would know that without seeing the grades the GMs have given. With Alex Smith, for example, how do we know that he didn't get the 49ers highest grade that year? He was a highly rated player coming into the draft. QB is an extremely valuable position. And the 49ers were starting Tim Rattay at that point, so they definitely needed a QB. Doesn't seem weird that he would have one of the highest grades for the 49ers that year.

Its hard to say btw that Scot whiffed on Alex Smith v. Aaron Rodgers. Wasn't Rodgers drafted like 24th that year? Everybody whiffed on him.

DEHog wrote:He sent Denver a second- and third-round pick to obtain the 22nd overall choice, which they used on defensive end Manny Lawson, who was a full-time starter in five years with San Francisco.
He traded two seventh-round choices to Jacksonville for a sixth-round choice, which they used on defensive end Melvin Oliver.
He sent a fourth-round choice plus a 2008 first-rounder to New England for the 28th overall pick in 2007 (He took Joe Staley).

thanks for sharing that! Nothing too crazy in his upward trades, thankfully.

riggofan wrote:

DEHog wrote:Well that’s my point, when I hear a GM say they take BPA…it doesn’t always seem to be the case.

I'm not really sure how any of us would know that without seeing the grades the GMs have given. With Alex Smith, for example, how do we know that he didn't get the 49ers highest grade that year? He was a highly rated player coming into the draft. QB is an extremely valuable position. And the 49ers were starting Tim Rattay at that point, so they definitely needed a QB. Doesn't seem weird that he would have one of the highest grades for the 49ers that year.

Its hard to say btw that Scot whiffed on Alex Smith v. Aaron Rodgers. Wasn't Rodgers drafted like 24th that year? Everybody whiffed on him.

DEHog wrote:He sent Denver a second- and third-round pick to obtain the 22nd overall choice, which they used on defensive end Manny Lawson, who was a full-time starter in five years with San Francisco.
He traded two seventh-round choices to Jacksonville for a sixth-round choice, which they used on defensive end Melvin Oliver.
He sent a fourth-round choice plus a 2008 first-rounder to New England for the 28th overall pick in 2007 (He took Joe Staley).

thanks for sharing that! Nothing too crazy in his upward trades, thankfully.

There's that word again...

SkinsJock wrote:I just hope that this franchise makes a plan and let's this new GM and the NFL people run things for a while ..

does anyone really think that things have a chance at getting better if we continue managing this franchise the way we have lately? How bad a job could real NFL people do? Do you really think that if we have a poor draft, that things are going to continue to be bad here - I could care less who we draft or bring in - as long as the people making the decisions are not the same people that we've been using - that way is Dan Snyder's method and we know that does not work - having NFL people make decisions and making a plan for the future is something we have not tried - it will work

if things don't get better here with the NFL guys running things - I will not say "Dan Snyder's involved, that's the problem"

we do know that if he doesn't stop meddling and and give these guys time to fix this mess he's created, we will not get better

building through the draft + having a plan is just the right way to do things

we've tried the free agent, bring in the 'best available player or coach' route - that was hopeless

How will we know...as soon as we start losing or SM drafts a player that leaves the media and fan base scratching their heads...Snyder will be blamed!!

I dont think its fair to say Rodgers was even a whiff.

What if Washington wouldof drafted Rodgers? He would be a backup at best somewhere now. Part of why Rodgers is great is because he spent 3 years on the bench watching and learning. He learned what to do and not to do from one ofthe greatest QBs of all time Brett Favre. Then he was plugged into a succesful roster whetr he could grow and not be thrown to the wolves.

Drafting is like gambling. You play your best odds but its always possible someone else wins the jackpot.

We will agree to disagree about him being a backup...
Well the 9ers needed a QB while the Packers didn’t…to my point…which team was drafting BPA??
And by that I’m not saying the 9ers thought Rodgers was better than Smith, just that it’s hard to believe that they would have had Smith as the best player in the draft overall.

riggofan wrote:Its hard to say btw that Scot whiffed on Alex Smith v. Aaron Rodgers. Wasn't Rodgers drafted like 24th that year? Everybody whiffed on him.

Vinny (or Joe Gibbs) didn't, we were set to draft him, but the Packers took him at 23 (I believe it was), and we took Jason Campbell with the next pick (which I believe we traded up for).

Prowl33 wrote:I dont think its fair to say Rodgers was even a whiff.

What if Washington wouldof drafted Rodgers? He would be a backup at best somewhere now. Part of why Rodgers is great is because he spent 3 years on the bench watching and learning. He learned what to do and not to do from one ofthe greatest QBs of all time Brett Favre. Then he was plugged into a succesful roster whetr he could grow and not be thrown to the wolves.

Drafting is like gambling. You play your best odds but its always possible someone else wins the jackpot.

Exactly.

Deadskins wrote:

riggofan wrote:Its hard to say btw that Scot whiffed on Alex Smith v. Aaron Rodgers. Wasn't Rodgers drafted like 24th that year? Everybody whiffed on him.

Vinny (or Joe Gibbs) didn't, we were set to draft him, but the Packers took him at 23 (I believe it was), and we took Jason Campbell with the next pick (which I believe we traded up for).

Yep...and in hindsight shouldn't have taken a QB there but they were set on it.

Drafting is like gambling. You play your best odds but its always possible someone else wins the jackpot

Couldn't disagree more...to say this is to insinuate you or I could run the draft this year.

DEHog wrote:

Drafting is like gambling. You play your best odds but its always possible someone else wins the jackpot

Couldn't disagree more...to say this is to insinuate you or I could run the draft this year.

No its not at all... SM knows how to make an educated selection much better than us, but just because he is so good at it and we arent wouldnt mean that he wont come up with any duds, or we wouldnt get a couple studs.

The whole point of my comment is, no one KNOWS beyond a doubt who will and wont be good. Pick the horse with the 3:1 odds and youll win more often than not, but every once in a while the horse with the 1:40 odds wins.

we're not expecting this FO (and Scot) to absolutely nail every draft pick

I'll guarantee 1 thing - this draft will give the Redskins a much better chance than if we did it the way we've been doing the past 5 years

it's like the old story about the 2 hunters ... "what are you going to do if a bear attacks us?" 'I'm going to run' "You're crazy! you can't outrun a bear" 'I don't have to - I just need to outrun you'

DEHog wrote:We will agree to disagree about him being a backup...
Well the 9ers needed a QB while the Packers didn’t…to my point…which team was drafting BPA??
And by that I’m not saying the 9ers thought Rodgers was better than Smith, just that it’s hard to believe that they would have had Smith as the best player in the draft overall.

Both teams were drafting BPA. You're just wrongly assuming that NEEDS don't play any part in scoring players. Of course they do.

it's been frustrating to be a Redskins fan and now it looks like we have hired a GM that is for the most part going to do be in charge of player acquisition - this is a good thing - I hope that the media and fans give this new scenario the time it's going to take to get this franchise back in the hunt - we are already seeing suggestions from B/R (bleacher report) on what needs to happen in order to make the playoffs in 2015 - this is ridiculous - we realistically might have a shot in 2017 if we can stay the course and give these guys the time and support they need

Danny has to stay away from things and we need to be patient - give these guys a few drafts and then let's see where we're at

Prowl33 wrote:

DEHog wrote:

Drafting is like gambling. You play your best odds but its always possible someone else wins the jackpot

Couldn't disagree more...to say this is to insinuate you or I could run the draft this year.

No its not at all... SM knows how to make an educated selection much better than us, but just because he is so good at it and we arent wouldnt mean that he wont come up with any duds, or we wouldnt get a couple studs.

The whole point of my comment is, no one KNOWS beyond a doubt who will and wont be good. Pick the horse with the 3:1 odds and youll win more often than not, but every once in a while the horse with the 1:40 odds wins.

Well the average for picking a players who plays meaning downs in the NFL ranges from 30-40 percent overall...There wouldn't be a Vegas if gamblers were that good!!

riggofan wrote:

DEHog wrote:We will agree to disagree about him being a backup...
Well the 9ers needed a QB while the Packers didn’t…to my point…which team was drafting BPA??
And by that I’m not saying the 9ers thought Rodgers was better than Smith, just that it’s hard to believe that they would have had Smith as the best player in the draft overall.

Both teams were drafting BPA. You're just wrongly assuming that NEEDS don't play any part in scoring players. Of course they do.

Quite the opposite, I was making the argument that need does play a part. IMO BPA is something GM's like to say and players like to hear.

Deadskins wrote:

riggofan wrote:Its hard to say btw that Scot whiffed on Alex Smith v. Aaron Rodgers. Wasn't Rodgers drafted like 24th that year? Everybody whiffed on him.

Vinny (or Joe Gibbs) didn't, we were set to draft him, but the Packers took him at 23 (I believe it was), and we took Jason Campbell with the next pick (which I believe we traded up for).

Correct.

Thompson wasn't beholden to short-term planning or positional needs. He saw Rodgers as the heir apparent to Favre, even if he didn't take a single snap for three or four years. He took the best player on the board, and decided to figure the rest out later.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/ted-thom ... z3OqPztnhK

I've scoured his drafts and posted. He seems to adhere to the BPA policy pretty strictly.

I seriously doubt he will take the hole-filling approach. He will look for big guys who either already dominate or have the chance to.

Pick 5 of them a year for 5 years and you have a dominant roster. If that's 3 DL, 3 OL, 3 LBs, 3 DBs, 3 WRs, 3 RBs, 3 TEs, and 4 of anything else ... well, I'm way cool with that.

History says it'll be more like 8 or 9 from among QB, WR, RB, and TE with the other 16 or 17 being OL, DL, LB, and DB.

Since so many other GMs reach for need, the BPA will never be a WR 5 times in a row so R E L A X.

I agree to the BPA philosophy to a point but, what if:

at 5, it just may be this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9Hq4bdFY0. Brandon Scherff OT, Iowa

Would you guys pull the trigger even though we have Trent? If yes, which one starts on the right side?

I mean, this dude is an animal. I think Williams has better feet but, Scherff may be nastier.

jmooney wrote:I agree to the BPA philosophy to a point but, what if:

at 5, it just may be this guy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9Hq4bdFY0. Brandon Scherff OT, Iowa

Would you guys pull the trigger even though we have Trent? If yes, which one starts on the right side?

I mean, this dude is an animal. I think Williams has better feet but, Scherff may be nastier.

If Scherff is truly the BPA when we pick at 5 then he is a must pick.

He can play LG, RG, or RT since we have Trent as an Pro Bowl caliber LT.

He fits the mold of a big man who can dominate.

DEHog wrote:

riggofan wrote:

DEHog wrote:We will agree to disagree about him being a backup...
Well the 9ers needed a QB while the Packers didn’t…to my point…which team was drafting BPA??
And by that I’m not saying the 9ers thought Rodgers was better than Smith, just that it’s hard to believe that they would have had Smith as the best player in the draft overall.

Both teams were drafting BPA. You're just wrongly assuming that NEEDS don't play any part in scoring players. Of course they do.

Quite the opposite, I was making the argument that need does play a part. IMO BPA is something GM's like to say and players like to hear.

Talent, positional value and needs are all a part of scoring and determining BPA. Its not one or the other regardless of what your IMO is.

^Isn't that what I said??