welch wrote:The point: is this different than 1929 (that is, "can't step in the same river twice).
Yes.
We were the largest exporter of maufactured goods and of energy. Largest creditor.
Now largest importer of manufactured goods and oil. Largest debtor.
Whatever happened in 1929 is past, and won't be much guidance to the future.
Are you trying to say largest "net" importer? That's a totally different point then largest importer. Why do you only include manufacturing? And again, does measuring trade deficits as a percent of GDP have ANY meaning to you since you keep ignoring it? And why are you only looking at "manufactured" goods? What's the difference to the economy if it's a toaster versus a service? We were a manufacturing economy in 1929 and we are a service economy today. Higher end, higher margin, how is it bad?
On the "creditor" you are ONLY including the US government, why? Why don't all the American's loaning money to, investing in and operating businesses IN foreign countries matter? Why are we only concerned that the US government is a net creditor? And again, consider as a PERCENT OF GDP!!!!! How is that changing? What does it mean in REAL terms, not MARGINAL measures?
The article only talks about GDP in terms of financial services and manufacturing as a percent of GDP. It doesn't talk about the other measures.