Should the Skins re-sign Cousins....?

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

His source is Bruce Allen.

hah. Really?

Unfortunately, yes. Kirwan named his source.

[riggofan]

His source is Bruce Allen.

hah. Really?

Unfortunately, yes. Kirwan named his source.

huh. Just a weird way to state it unless he's heard something new. "Looks like a deal will get done". "nice development". I've heard both McCloughan and Cousins speak optimistically about a deal over the past few weeks, but nothing along those lines. More like: "we'd like to get a deal done unless we don't."

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

huh. Just a weird way to state it unless he's heard something new. "Looks like a deal will get done". "nice development". I've heard both McCloughan and Cousins speak optimistically about a deal over the past few weeks, but nothing along those lines. More like: "we'd like to get a deal done unless we don't."

What's Cousins' incentive to get a deal done? He'd have to think he's going to crap the bed to want to sign a deal now. If he thinks he's going to play like a top five quarterback then he's smarter to wait until he plays like a top five quarterback and then negotiate. It's a calculated risk either way but he is far more likely to raise his own price by performing well before he negotiates. The big picture for Cousins is he has most of his career ahead of him. A couple million a year makes a difference over the next ten or fifteen seasons. The Redskins aren't going to bid against themselves here. This is Scot McCloughan, not Bruce Allen or Vinny Cerrato. They're approaching it from the same perspective. A couple million a year makes a big difference in who they can afford to sign or re-sign. I won't say it's entirely out of the question but I do think the odds of a deal being struck before the July 15th deadline are slim to none.

[riggofan]

huh. Just a weird way to state it unless he's heard something new. "Looks like a deal will get done". "nice development". I've heard both McCloughan and Cousins speak optimistically about a deal over the past few weeks, but nothing along those lines. More like: "we'd like to get a deal done unless we don't."

What's Cousins' incentive to get a deal done? He'd have to think he's going to crap the bed to want to sign a deal now.

Job security? Minimizing risk? There are plenty of things that could happen other than just crapping the bed. He could break his leg in the preseason.

Not saying he has incentive to accept a cheap deal. But playing on the franchise tag is a risk for him or any player.

[OldSchool]

huh. Just a weird way to state it unless he's heard something new. "Looks like a deal will get done". "nice development". I've heard both McCloughan and Cousins speak optimistically about a deal over the past few weeks, but nothing along those lines. More like: "we'd like to get a deal done unless we don't."

What's Cousins' incentive to get a deal done? He'd have to think he's going to crap the bed to want to sign a deal now. If he thinks he's going to play like a top five quarterback then he's smarter to wait until he plays like a top five quarterback and then negotiate. It's a calculated risk either way but he is far more likely to raise his own price by performing well before he negotiates. The big picture for Cousins is he has most of his career ahead of him. A couple million a year makes a difference over the next ten or fifteen seasons. The Redskins aren't going to bid against themselves here. This is Scot McCloughan, not Bruce Allen or Vinny Cerrato. They're approaching it from the same perspective. A couple million a year makes a big difference in who they can afford to sign or re-sign. I won't say it's entirely out of the question but I do think the odds of a deal being struck before the July 15th deadline are slim to none.

I think Kirk wants the Skins to make a long term commitment. Let's not forget he was Shanny's guy now he wants the Skins to commit to him. Obviously the franchise tag was a major step in that direction but I believe he would prefer them to offer him a long term commitment with a very substantial portion guaranteed. My guess he isn't as interested in getting the biggest deal as he is in having the bigger portion of it guaranteed.

If he gets a long term contract and a very substantial guarantee at a lower annual rate he obtains the full commitment from the Skins and the Skins will have more to pay others to help Kirk succeed. Just my guess as to his motives but he's a lot smarter and grounded than most NFL players and may be focused on the benefits for him as well as the Skins in a more modest annual salary provided if it comes with a bigger guarantee.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Job security? Minimizing risk? There are plenty of things that could happen other than just crapping the bed. He could break his leg in the preseason.

Not saying he has incentive to accept a cheap deal. But playing on the franchise tag is a risk for him or any player.

These are true but he could also do that on the first play of the regular season, costing the team $20MM this season for nothing.

I think the real answer is that the team doesn't want to give him a long-term contract until they see more than half a season of good play. I think that's why they tagged him without blinking.

I don't think it has anything to do with Cousins not wanting a long-term deal.

[Countertrey]

Job security? Minimizing risk? There are plenty of things that could happen other than just crapping the bed. He could break his leg in the preseason.

Not saying he has incentive to accept a cheap deal. But playing on the franchise tag is a risk for him or any player.

These are true but he could also do that on the first play of the regular season, costing the team $20MM this season for nothing.

I think the real answer is that the team doesn't want to give him a long-term contract until they see more than half a season of good play. I think that's why they tagged him without blinking.

I don't think it has anything to do with Cousins not wanting a long-term deal.

I also suspect that they think it's a pretty good bet...

[riggofan]

Job security? Minimizing risk? There are plenty of things that could happen other than just crapping the bed. He could break his leg in the preseason.

Not saying he has incentive to accept a cheap deal. But playing on the franchise tag is a risk for him or any player.

These are true but he could also do that on the first play of the regular season, costing the team $20MM this season for nothing.

Sure, but what does that have to do with Kirk's incentive to do a deal?

I think the real answer is that the team doesn't want to give him a long-term contract until they see more than half a season of good play. I think that's why they tagged him without blinking.

I don't think it has anything to do with Cousins not wanting a long-term deal.

I'm sure that's true. But you asked: "What's Cousins' incentive to get a deal done? He'd have to think he's going to crap the bed to want to sign a deal now."

I still think there is incentive for the team too btw. Assuming that they like Kirk, the longer deal allows them more flexibility with the salary cap. They've shown they're pretty good at managing that.

I would also argue that its cheaper and cap advantageous to sign him now at the $19 or $20m/yr price. The salary cap will go up next year like it always does. The increase this year was $12m.

[SkinsJock]

Cousins most likely takes the long term deal but I'd be happy with him not doing it and having a really great season and getting paid really well

Cousins most likely has a good (not great) season and gets a ton of money anyway because the price for good (not great) QBs will still be up there - I'd love for Cousins to show that he's an elite QB, I just don't think that this FO thinks that he is


Scot and this FO know what is best for this franchise and they are acting accordingly - they are not really stupid like the clueless Texans FO

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

I'm sure that's true. But you asked: "What's Cousins' incentive to get a deal done? He'd have to think he's going to crap the bed to want to sign a deal now."

I still think there is incentive for the team too btw. Assuming that they like Kirk, the longer deal allows them more flexibility with the salary cap. They've shown they're pretty good at managing that.

I would also argue that its cheaper and cap advantageous to sign him now at the $19 or $20m/yr price. The salary cap will go up next year like it always does. The increase this year was $12m.

Just looking at both sides of the issue. I think a contract structure similar to Josh Norman's would work for both sides. Obviously the total value for Cousins is going to be substantially higher. Norman's deal was five years for $75MM with $50MM guaranteed with $15MM signing bonus and $2MM in roster bonus. Norman's cap figure is manageable the first year ($8MM), astronomical the second year ($20MM), and then gradually decreases over the remainder of the contract.

I'm spit-balling here but based upon contracts of similar players I think they eventually agree to a contract somewhere around the following numbers:

5 Years, $110MM, $55MM guaranteed, $30MM signing bonus, 2017 cap figure of $20MM, 2018 cap hit of $30MM, 2019 cap hit of $25MM, 2020 cap hit of $20MM, 2021 cap hit of $15MM.

It's slightly more than Matt Ryan's contract and considerably more than Andy Dalton's but Matt Ryan's contract was three years ago, Andy Dalton's was two years ago, neither has done anything in the playoffs that would place their market value substantially higher than Kirk Cousins, and the cost of quarterbacks keeps going up. Having said that, Dalton does have a 50-26 career record and has never had a losing regular season record. But he is 0-4 in the playoffs. Ryan, on the other hand, has a 74-52 career record with a 4-12 season and a 6-10 season. He is 1-4 in the playoffs.

That 7 year $126MM contract the Bears gave Jay Cutler, who hasn't even reached the playoffs since 2010, two years ago really jacked up the cost of marginal quarterbacks.

Now, this is where Scot McCloughan comes in. If he can somehow reduce the total figure, the guaranteed portion, or the cap hit figures then he is the genius we thought he was. Market value says the team is taking it in the shorts on this contract.

[riggofan]

#Redskins GM Scot McCloughan again says he wants a deal done with Kirk Cousins. "But it's a big contract." July 15 deadline could be in play

"The deadline is July 15. Don't worry. We'll figure something out." - Scot McCloughan on a Kirk Cousins extension. #Redskins

Chris Russell ‏@Russellmania621 39m39 minutes ago

Scot McCloughan just said at @NatCapLLS that Kirk Cousins will be here for a long time. Put more of the issue on what agent wants. #Redskins

[SkinsJock]

Cousins still trying to figure out what works best ...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/kirk- ... on-advice/

Now, the stakes are even higher for Cousins. He's playing under the franchise tag, so another successful season should result in a big-time offer from the front office. Washington's general manager, Scot McCloughan, already said he'd be happy to "overpay" for Cousins. If Cousins experiences a decline, though, his future will become murky -- a reality he's seemingly accepted.
"If they feel like they have enough information and want to make that call right now, then great, too," Cousins told 106.7 The Fan, a CBS Sports Radio station earlier this month. "But I think the ball's in their court and I will react accordingly to whatever decision they make. But I am totally comfortable playing more football, and frankly if I don't play well next season, I don't deserve to be back. I don't deserve a long-term deal. So I want to go out and earn it, and prove myself, and if I need to prove myself again, that's fine. I'll go see if I can do that."

good plan - let him play and prove he's a good QB - love to see him show he's worth a ton of money

[riggofan]

Cousins still trying to figure out what works best ...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/kirk- ... on-advice/

Now, the stakes are even higher for Cousins. He's playing under the franchise tag, so another successful season should result in a big-time offer from the front office. Washington's general manager, Scot McCloughan, already said he'd be happy to "overpay" for Cousins. If Cousins experiences a decline, though, his future will become murky -- a reality he's seemingly accepted.
"If they feel like they have enough information and want to make that call right now, then great, too," Cousins told 106.7 The Fan, a CBS Sports Radio station earlier this month. "But I think the ball's in their court and I will react accordingly to whatever decision they make. But I am totally comfortable playing more football, and frankly if I don't play well next season, I don't deserve to be back. I don't deserve a long-term deal. So I want to go out and earn it, and prove myself, and if I need to prove myself again, that's fine. I'll go see if I can do that."

good plan - let him play and prove he's a good QB - love to see him show he's worth a ton of money

Its really easy to say that now. Wait until next February when the price tag is $24m/yr instead of $18m/yr.

Amazes me how people were so ready and willing to gamble and give away three first round picks on a QB who had never played a down in the league. But locking up this guy is somehow just too much of a risk.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Its really easy to say that now. Wait until next February when the price tag is $24m/yr instead of $18m/yr.

Amazes me how people were so ready and willing to gamble and give away three first round picks on a QB who had never played a down in the league. But locking up this guy is somehow just too much of a risk.

We're the Washington Redskins. We're once bitten twice shy on signing quarterbacks to huge contracts. Except, in our case, it's more like twelve times bitten since 2000.

Speaking only for myself, I wasn't ready to give away anything for RGIII. I thought then and still think now it was a stupid trade to make.

Likewise, I think giving Kirk Cousins a long term deal based upon ten games is a stupid thing to do. I will continue to think that until he has more playoff wins than Tony Romo.

I still don't believe Cousins is more than a passable starter. He should not be paid like a franchise quarterback.

But he will be because NFL quarterbacks are a sellers market. There aren't nearly enough good ones for all 32 teams to have one.

One positive I like to remember while gritting my teeth over paying marginal players huge money is that Joe Gibbs made a career of winning with marginal quarterbacks.

[riggofan]

Its really easy to say that now. Wait until next February when the price tag is $24m/yr instead of $18m/yr.

Amazes me how people were so ready and willing to gamble and give away three first round picks on a QB who had never played a down in the league. But locking up this guy is somehow just too much of a risk.

We're the Washington Redskins. We're once bitten twice shy on signing quarterbacks to huge contracts. Except, in our case, it's more like twelve times bitten since 2000.

Speaking only for myself, I wasn't ready to give away anything for RGIII. I thought then and still think now it was a stupid trade to make.

Yeah I get it. I guess that comment is actually more directed towards Snyder than anyone else. The draft haul we gave up put us in way more of a bind than a LTD with Cousins ever would. That's just a fact. You pay Kirk what seems like a lot now, but the cap is going to go up next year and so are the deals the QBs get next year. A deal done this July will look like a bargain eventually.

Two years into it, if its not looking like Kirk is the guy who can take the next step, then draft a QB high without the pressure of NEEDING a QB to start.

Forget about this "elite" bs. Even if Kirk levels off and is basically Ryan Fitzpatrick. Starting QBs in this league are a rarity, and this is what it costs to keep them around. It will be a win for this franchise just starting the season with the same QB for two years in a row.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

[Yeah I get it. I guess that comment is actually more directed towards Snyder than anyone else. The draft haul we gave up put us in way more of a bind than a LTD with Cousins ever would. That's just a fact. You pay Kirk what seems like a lot now, but the cap is going to go up next year and so are the deals the QBs get next year. A deal done this July will look like a bargain eventually.

Two years into it, if its not looking like Kirk is the guy who can take the next step, then draft a QB high without the pressure of NEEDING a QB to start.

Forget about this "elite" bs. Even if Kirk levels off and is basically Ryan Fitzpatrick. Starting QBs in this league are a rarity, and this is what it costs to keep them around. It will be a win for this franchise just starting the season with the same QB for two years in a row.

I agree. I just don't want to be locked into Kirk Cousins for five years if he's not the guy.

[SkinsJock]

+1 - I'm not V. sure that Cousins is any more than a good NFL QB - if Scot & this FO think he's worth $20M+, then they'll give him the money

I'm fine with him playing this season on the franchise tag & showing that he's worth a whole bunch more

IMO Cousins signs the long term agreement before 7/15

[Countertrey]

+1 - I'm not V. sure that Cousins is any more than a good NFL QB - if Scot & this FO think he's worth $20M+, then they'll give him the money

I'm fine with him playing this season on the franchise tag & showing that he's worth a whole bunch more

IMO Cousins signs the long term agreement before 7/15

OTOH if he plays while still tagged like he did last year, the price goes way up.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

OTOH if he plays while still tagged like he did last year, the price goes way up.

Which is why Scot McCloughan wants to get a deal done. And why Cousins is in no rush to get a deal done.

[SkinsJock]

The fair market value for really good NFL QBs next season could be $25M+ - if Cousins clearly shows that he's a $25M QB, then that is what he should get - if Cousins signs a long term deal for $20M and then has a great season and that he's actually worth $25M, then he should get paid that - It's not my money - I just don't think that Cousins is going to have a season that drives his value up to $25M+ - IMO Cousins 2016 value as an NFL QB is in the $17M - $19M range - that may go up a little if he has a good season but I doubt that he's a $24M+ QB

my money's on Cousins signing a long term deal before July but I'd love it if he didn't

[riggofan]

OTOH if he plays while still tagged like he did last year, the price goes way up.

Which is why Scot McCloughan wants to get a deal done. And why Cousins is in no rush to get a deal done.

Yeah that's my point exactly. I'm not in the tank for Cousins at all and agree that he still has a lot to prove. But freaking hell, look at what guys like Osweiler and Bradford are getting paid right now. Look at the deal Fitzpatrick is holding out for.

I just think its more likely than not that the offense is going to be as good or better than last year, including Cousins. We're going to put ourselves in a bind with him playing on the FT.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

Yeah that's my point exactly. I'm not in the tank for Cousins at all and agree that he still has a lot to prove. But freaking hell, look at what guys like Osweiler and Bradford are getting paid right now. Look at the deal Fitzpatrick is holding out for.

I just think its more likely than not that the offense is going to be as good or better than last year, including Cousins. We're going to put ourselves in a bind with him playing on the FT.

How could it not be? Scotty Mac gave Cousins the best set of receivers in the league. The running game is still suspect but the pass protection was great even with LeRibeus at center last season.

If Cousins fails he will have no excuses.

But in my opinion no quarterback could possibly fail with that group of weapons. Jackson, Garcon, Crowder, Doctson, Grant, Ross, Reed, Davis, Paul.

Holy You Know What

They're going to have to pay him to play him so better now than later.

[riggofan]

I just don't think that Cousins is going to have a season that drives his value up to $25M+

Why not? Its not as hard for him to do that as you're making out. He doesn't have to be Tom Brady this year to earn that kind of money.

Cousins can go out there this season and just be competent. Be ok. Finish a top 12-15 QB. At the end of the season, we will either have to let him walk, pay him $23m on the franchise tag, or come up with a deal that beats that franchise tag number.

As it stands now, he's going out there with one of the best pass catching TEs in the league. Healthy and hungry Niles Paul coming back. DeSean Jackson. Pierre Garcon catching 65% of his passes. AND we just drafted one of the best WRs in the draft in the first round. I'd say he's got a better than even chance of putting together some pretty solid stats at QB this year.

[riggofan]

But in my opinion no quarterback could possibly fail with that group of weapons. Jackson, Garcon, Crowder, Doctson, Grant, Ross, Reed, Davis, Paul.

Holy You Know What

They're going to have to pay him to play him so better now than later.

YES YES YES.

I need to let you start writing my posts for me.

[SkinsJock]

I still hope he does not sign the long term deal ... I love it when these guys get paid 'fair market value' ....

IMO Scot and the FO have a pretty good idea of what the market value for Cousins is right now and what it might be in 2017 - they'll make him a very good contract - I just hope he holds out for more ... it's a win/win