No Luck... so... Now What?

GoSkins · Post by **GoSkins** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:38 pm

The Hogster wrote:Hey there Landry Jones -> You come here often??

There's a gap in talent between the top 2 and Landry.

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:49 pm

We are so lucky that we have Bruce and Mike in charge here

NO WAY are we giving up any picks or players - we are adding players not giving them away
we will continue the process we've seen here the last 2 seasons

Bruce & Mike understand better than we do how important the QB is
They will find a way to have a decent starting QB and bring in another to get ready to play

CanesSkins26 · Post by **CanesSkins26** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:51 pm

GoSkins wrote:
The Hogster wrote:Hey there Landry Jones -> You come here often??

There's a gap in talent between the top 2 and Landry.

Not really. Landry's stock has fallen a little bit because he struggled the last 3-4 games for Oklahoma. He's 6'4, 229, and has a very strong arm. Once teams start working him out (if he declares) his stock will shoot right back up.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:04 pm

CanesSkins26 wrote:
The Hogster wrote:Hey there Landry Jones -> You come here often??

I can understand Barkley going back. USC will challenge for the NC next year. Griffin and Jones would be insane to go back to school.

+1

RGIII should definately come out.....

Jones is a toss up, his late season performance hurt his stock but Barkley staying in school will help his status

The Hogster · Post by **The Hogster** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:18 pm

GoSkins wrote:
The Hogster wrote:Hey there Landry Jones -> You come here often??

There's a gap in talent between the top 2 and Landry.

Yeah, that's what they said about Alex Smith & Aaron Rodgers. I agree though. My opinion is trading up would cost too much for a team that needs those picks. And, if we're picking between 7-12, Landry Jones may be the guy. He doesn't have to be Peyton Manning to win a ring. Peyton only has 1 - other guys can lead a good team to where we want to go.

The Hogster · Post by **The Hogster** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:22 pm

1niksder wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
The Hogster wrote:Hey there Landry Jones -> You come here often??

I can understand Barkley going back. USC will challenge for the NC next year. Griffin and Jones would be insane to go back to school.

+1

RGIII should definately come out.....

Jones is a toss up, his late season performance hurt his stock but Barkley staying in school will help his status

With the changes to the CBA and new compensation to rookies, someone will reach and grab Landry Jones unless he has some character issue that comes out Justifying a Ryan Mallet-like fall. Ponder was projected to be a 2nd Rounder and many people thought that Jake Locker's stock had fallen too. Premium positions i.e. QBs, LTs, Pass Rushers, & CBs will dominate the 1st round as long as the pay is the way it is.

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 6:28 pm

Marino did not win a Super Bowl

this FO just has to keep adding players that are not stars per se but help the other players around them

we will find a starting QB - Bruce & Mike will draft a QB

this franchise used to be managed like some here want it managed again

we are not going to just find the best player and add him to the mix

I like the job this FO has done - I look for them to continue to draft and add players that suit what we need

we do not need to just add the best QB available - we need the best QB that suits the offense & the players we have

if he's not there, don't waste the pick

this franchise is getting better and the Shanaplan rolls on

The Hogster · Post by **The Hogster** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:15 pm

SkinsJock wrote:Marino did not win a Super Bowl

this FO just has to keep adding players that are not stars per se but help the other players around them

we will find a starting QB - Bruce & Mike will draft a QB

this franchise used to be managed like some here want it managed again

we are not going to just find the best player and add him to the mix

I like the job this FO has done - I look for them to continue to draft and add players that suit what we need

we do not need to just add the best QB available - we need the best QB that suits the offense & the players we have

if he's not there, don't waste the pick

this franchise is getting better and the Shanaplan rolls on

I agree with this. Can't please all of the fans from a management perspective. But, I actually like Landry Jones where it looks like we'll be picking. If not, I'm all for taking the best player available and picking up a guy in Round 2 like Brandon Weeden from OSU.

The Hogster · Post by **The Hogster** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:28 pm

This fanbase needs to get prepared for the Redskins repeating their draft philosophy from last year and trade back.

I know we all want a Franchise QB, but maybe picking up an extra 2nd round pick allows us to address 3 needs instead of 2 (Kerrigan & Jenkins) from last year. We could have used that second 2, but we wound up sliding back even further.

This year with a full compliment of picks, we might be able to do some damage. But, casual fans might be pi$$ed on draft day if they don't know the names of the guys we pick.

welch · Post by **welch** » Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:48 pm

SkinsJock wrote:Marino did not win a Super Bowl

we do not need to just add the best QB available - we need the best QB that suits the offense & the players we have

if he's not there, don't waste the pick

this franchise is getting better and the Shanaplan rolls on

Agree. Draft a QB if he's the right one...not just because he's available and somebody rates him high.

Going through the drafts, it seems like almost 9 out of 10 drafted QB's fail. Just repeating: Rex G was supposed to be the star of all stars. Or...there was the Big Question: Vince Young or Matt Leinert (I think it was Leinert). Answer is "neither". Tony Romo was not supposed to be special, because the Cowboys had a failed Yankee third-baseman -- can't remember his name now, but he was going to be New York's next big thing, but he flopped and went back to football. Flopped there, too.

SprintRightOption · Post by **SprintRightOption** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 12:09 am

welch wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:
Agree. Draft a QB if he's the right one...not just because he's available and somebody rates him high.

Going through the drafts, it seems like almost 9 out of 10 drafted QB's fail. Just repeating: Rex G was supposed to be the star of all stars. Or...there was the Big Question: Vince Young or Matt Leinert (I think it was Leinert). Answer is "neither". Tony Romo was not supposed to be special, because the Cowboys had a failed Yankee third-baseman -- can't remember his name now, but he was going to be New York's next big thing, but he flopped and went back to football. Flopped there, too.

Of the three quarterbacks drafted amongst Vince Young, Leinart and Jay Cutler, which is the one still starting and last year made it to the NFC Championship with no offensive talent? That would be Jay Cutler drafted by Mike Shanahan.

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 12:46 am

just watched a no name QB help the offense go down the field and score a TD against a good Texans defense

we just need a group of guys playing together and this FO knows how to bring in guys that suit what will work here

we don't need talented players - they're ALL talented - we need players that make the other players here better

The Shanaplan is at work and we are seeing it happen here

crazyhorse1 · Post by **crazyhorse1** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:48 am

SkinsJock wrote:We are so lucky that we have Bruce and Mike in charge here

NO WAY are we giving up any picks or players - we are adding players not giving them away
we will continue the process we've seen here the last 2 seasons

Bruce & Mike understand better than we do how important the QB is
They will find a way to have a decent starting QB and bring in another to get ready to play

All of your opinions are nonsense. Bruce and Mike have and will continue to give away players, and our going with Grossman and Beck this year is solid evidence that they are quite capable of starting a season with inferior quarterbacks.

The Hogster · Post by **The Hogster** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:44 am

SkinsJock wrote:just watched a no name QB help the offense go down the field and score a TD against a good Texans defense

They're 2-13 though. Grossman can take a team downfield too, but we need someone who can do that consistently enough to win games.

die cowboys die · Post by **die cowboys die** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:30 am

if we end up not getting our QB because the draft runs out of the top guys 1 QB-needy team before us, then i will sincerely hope Matt Barkley breaks his arm and misses his whole senior year as punishment for screwing up the draft. if we get our guy, then i'll wish him the best. right now i am pissed that he his going back. i am even more pissed that the COLTS are screwing up the whole thing to begin with by being in position to take a top QB because they lost Peyton for ONE season. it is outrageous. they should be disallowed from drafting a QB at the top of the draft. they have not earned it. tons of other teams have been waiting decades for a top QB. there should be a separate draft for QBs and they would have the 32nd pick in that draft based on having had Peyton for so long.

StorminMormon86 · Post by **StorminMormon86** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 9:57 am

The title of this thread should be renamed, "No Luck...No RG3....No Barkley...so now what?"

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:46 am

CanesSkins26 wrote:
1niksder wrote:Latest Rumor has Luck as the ONLY UNDERCLASSMAN coming out....
Man that would screw the Skins, I mean no Barkley, RGIII, or Landry Jones

This would screw us beyond belief.
And as I was typing that - Barkley announced he's going back to USC.
We are so screwed.

WHY? - we have a QB issue, for sure - but ... we are not far off from being competitive in the NFC East

we don't need to draft a superstar - we just need a QB that can do better than Grossman - how hard is that?
and we need to draft a QB to get ready to take over

be great to have a top 5 pick in all rounds but ... we are not picking in the top 5 - this FO will find the players we need

to our FO - just keep doing what you've been doing - it's looking good

SkinsJock · Post by **SkinsJock** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:53 am

The Hogster wrote:
SkinsJock wrote:just watched a no name QB help the offense go down the field and score a TD against a good Texans defense

They're 2-13 though. Grossman can take a team downfield too, but we need someone who can do that consistently enough to win games.

Bruce & Mike know how important it is to find a QB
Not only for the future but also THEY MUST find a QB for next season

they will get that done - the franchise has to have better play from the QB
how hard could it be to bring in a QB that can do better than Grossman?

CanesSkins26 · Post by **CanesSkins26** » Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:17 am

SkinsJock wrote:
CanesSkins26 wrote:
1niksder wrote:Latest Rumor has Luck as the ONLY UNDERCLASSMAN coming out....
Man that would screw the Skins, I mean no Barkley, RGIII, or Landry Jones

This would screw us beyond belief.
And as I was typing that - Barkley announced he's going back to USC.
We are so screwed.

WHY? - we have a QB issue, for sure - but ... we are not far off from being competitive in the NFC East

we don't need to draft a superstar - we just need a QB that can do better than Grossman - how hard is that?
and we need to draft a QB to get ready to take over

be great to have a top 5 pick in all rounds but ... we are not picking in the top 5 - this FO will find the players we need

to our FO - just keep doing what you've been doing - it's looking good

This is total nonsense. Not far from competing? Competing for what, a 9-7 wild card birth? That's just fantastic. We are still quite a ways away from being a consistently competitive team and until we find a real solution to our qb situation, and not running over-the-hill or never-has-been qbs out there on Sundays, it wont be any different. This is a pass-heavy qb dominated league now, and for long-term success you need a franchise quarterback.

RayNAustin · Post by **RayNAustin** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 11:50 am

Aside the evidence showing how the Vikings 3rd stringer outperformed our starting QB, which was the difference in the game .... last night's Bears-Packers game is another case study in the world of elite QBs versus the average QB.

The first half last night saw the Jay Cutler-less Bears bring in a semi-retired former journeyman QB McCown, who hadn't played since 2007, and was a High School coach a couple of weeks ago. The Bears played outstanding defense in the first half, and McCown played remarkably well under the circumstances (very Rex Grossmanish), helped by an excellent running game. The Bears actually dominated the statistics, but lost the points battle as Aaron Rodgers chipped away at them, eventually compiling a 5 Touchdown game, and an easy win even though the Pack was dominated in the statistical game.

Furthermore, the Jay Cutler bears were 7-3 this year, and the Cutler-less Bears are now 0-5. Even more surprising is the 14-1 Packers defense has actually allowed more yards this year than their offense has produced .... and both the Packers (14-1) and the Patriots (12-3) are the 31st and 32nd ranked defenses in the league. Take Brady and Rodgers out of the equation, and both teams are likely to be 8-8, or worse ... just like we saw happen this year to the Peyton Manning-less Colts.

There is simply no way to avoid the obvious conclusions .... you cannot be a legitimate contender without a first rate QB, and an elite QB can overcome almost any deficiencies on a team.

So my point is, you couldn't replace Aaron Rodgers with 3 or 4 additional players at different positions, on either offense or defense, no matter how good they are, and expect them to compensate for Rodgers not being on the field. That's why an elite QB is worth 4 high draft picks.

The Bears gave up 2-1st round picks, a 3rd rd pick, and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler, and as it turned out, the Bears came out the winners in that deal, as the new Genius Child Coach of Denver who orchestrated that deal imploded the Broncos and was fired after two years. And Cutler is a MARGINAL elite QB .... not quite making the cut when being compared to a Brady-Brees-Manning-Rodgers group.

For those who think that Andrew Luck isn't worth 3 or 4 draft picks (especially given that Barkley is not coming out, and it doesn't look like RGIII is either, eliminating those options) you are CRAZY.

Whatever "future" prospects that the Redskins could add to the team by saving those picks WILL NOT and CAN NOT possibly substitute for what a premier QB would offer.

GoSkins · Post by **GoSkins** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 12:21 pm

RayNAustin wrote:Aside the evidence showing how the Vikings 3rd stringer outperformed our starting QB, which was the difference in the game .... last night's Bears-Packers game is another case study in the world of elite QBs versus the average QB.

The first half last night saw the Jay Cutler-less Bears bring in a semi-retired former journeyman QB McCown, who hadn't played since 2007, and was a High School coach a couple of weeks ago. The Bears played outstanding defense in the first half, and McCown played remarkably well under the circumstances (very Rex Grossmanish), helped by an excellent running game. The Bears actually dominated the statistics, but lost the points battle as Aaron Rodgers chipped away at them, eventually compiling a 5 Touchdown game, and an easy win even though the Pack was dominated in the statistical game.

Furthermore, the Jay Cutler bears were 7-3 this year, and the Cutler-less Bears are now 0-5. Even more surprising is the 14-1 Packers defense has actually allowed more yards this year than their offense has produced .... and both the Packers (14-1) and the Patriots (12-3) are the 31st and 32nd ranked defenses in the league. Take Brady and Rodgers out of the equation, and both teams are likely to be 8-8, or worse ... just like we saw happen this year to the Peyton Manning-less Colts.

There is simply no way to avoid the obvious conclusions .... you cannot be a legitimate contender without a first rate QB, and an elite QB can overcome almost any deficiencies on a team.

So my point is, you couldn't replace Aaron Rodgers with 3 or 4 additional players at different positions, on either offense or defense, no matter how good they are, and expect them to compensate for Rodgers not being on the field. That's why an elite QB is worth 4 high draft picks.

The Bears gave up 2-1st round picks, a 3rd rd pick, and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler, and as it turned out, the Bears came out the winners in that deal, as the new Genius Child Coach of Denver who orchestrated that deal imploded the Broncos and was fired after two years. And Cutler is a MARGINAL elite QB .... not quite making the cut when being compared to a Brady-Brees-Manning-Rodgers group.

For those who think that Andrew Luck isn't worth 3 or 4 draft picks (especially given that Barkley is not coming out, and it doesn't look like RGIII is either, eliminating those options) you are CRAZY.

Whatever "future" prospects that the Redskins could add to the team by saving those picks WILL NOT and CAN NOT possibly substitute for what a premier QB would offer.

I completely agree.

RayNAustin · Post by **RayNAustin** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 1:38 pm

Just to add .... good QBs are so valuable these days that Carson Palmer (33 years old) brought a #1 pick and a #2 pick (that could become a #1).

But further illustrating the point .... most probably don't realize that between 1969-1981 the Redskins only had 2 #1 draft picks (13 years) and built the Redskin dynasty of the 1980's. (And this was long before free agency)

From 1981-1991 (the last year the Redskins won the Super Bowl) they had 2 more #1 draft picks. That's a total of 4 #1 picks over 22 years, and ZERO QBs.

From 1992-2011 we've had 17 #1 picks. Which of these #1 picks could the Redskins have not manged without? Listed along side are Successful QB's drafted in the same year:

1992 - Desmond Howard (Brad Johnson)
1993 - Tom Carter (Drew Bledsoe, Trent Greeen, Mark Brunnel)
1994 - Heath Shuler (Trent Dilfer)
1995 - Michael Westbrook (Steve McNair, Kerry Collins)
1996 - Andre Johnson
1997 - Kenard Lang (Jake Plummer)
1998 - no pick (Peyton Manning, Matt Hasselbeck)
1999 - Champ Bailey (Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper)
2000 - LaVar Arrington (Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Marc Bulger)
2001 - Rod Gardner (Drew Brees, Michael Vick)
2002 - Patrick Ramsey
2003 - No pick (Carson Palmer)
2004 - Sean Taylor (E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Shaub)
2005 - Carlos Rogers, Jason Campbell (Aaron Rodgers)
2006 - No pick (Jay Cutler)
2007 - LaRon Landry
2008 - no pick (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco)
2009 - Brain Orakpo (Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman)
2010 - Trent Williams (Bradford, Tebow)
2011 - Ryan Kerrigan (Newton, Dalton)

This data would seem to indicate that for 22 years, the Redskins had 4 #1 draft picks and won 3 Super Bowls and appeared in 5. Since then, we've had 17 #1 picks and no Super Bowls.

Looking back realistically and historically from the 1992 season until now, there have been 200+ QBs drafted, with only a few of them becoming the elite QBs or potentially elite .....

The reality is, very few draft classes have what can be described as a "Sure Thing" .... guys like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, E Manning, etc. Those that had potential to be great fill in the other spots and are also few and far between. And then there are the few surprises like Tom Brady (very rare). So when a really remarkable prospect comes along like Andrew Luck, who is being compared to guys like John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, it's a very rare .... RARE situation. And a team that desperately needs a top tier QB CANNOT AFFORD TO PASS, regardless of cost. Luck could be a bust, but he's the least likely bust seen to come along in the last 10 years or more, and if you pass on him, it might be several years later before another one like him is even available.

Here's a good read on the likelihood of getting a good QB outside the elite prospect classification

http://pick256.wordpress.com/2011/11/14 ... he-top-50/

Excerpt:

Individually, Brady, Romo et al. are success stories. But the chances of finding a top QB outside of the top tier of prospects are very, very slim. It’s a good strategy to take a QB every year or 2 in the hopes of hitting on one, but a QB-needy team that passes on the elite prospect in hopes of finding a guy later on is probably going to fail to find their quarterback of the future.

RayNAustin · Post by **RayNAustin** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 1:55 pm

The hopes and dreams of Redskin fans (even if they are too stubborn or dense headed to realize it) hinges on whether or not Bruce Allen has a little George Allen in his bones, and embraces the idea that "The Future Is Now" and understands that for the Redskins to drag themselves out of a 20 year drought of success, an Elite Quarterback is THE BEST FORMULA given all the evidence we have for how valuable guys like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady have been to their respective franchises.

What is Andrew Luck really worth ? (assuming he lives up to his potential). He's worth whatever it takes to get him ..... WHATEVER IT TAKES .... 4 #1's ? ABSOLUTELY he's worth every penny of 4 1st round picks without a moment's hesitation.

1niksder · Post by **1niksder** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 3:16 pm

RayNAustin wrote:The hopes and dreams of Redskin fans (even if they are too stubborn or dense headed to realize it) hinges on whether or not Bruce Allen has a little George Allen in his bones, and embraces the idea that "The Future Is Now" and understands that for the Redskins to drag themselves out of a 20 year drought of success, an Elite Quarterback is THE BEST FORMULA given all the evidence we have for how valuable guys like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady have been to their respective franchises.

What is Andrew Luck really worth ? (assuming he lives up to his potential). He's worth whatever it takes to get him ..... WHATEVER IT TAKES .... 4 #1's ? ABSOLUTELY he's worth every penny of 4 1st round picks without a moment's hesitation.

Your list of elite quarterbacks on has one guy that was taken #1 overall and he was traded the same day, none of the others got picked in the top 20. Two weren't even picked in the 1st round.

If you look at the last 10 QBs taken with the number one overall pick you have two that are no longer in the NFL, one that took a break to spend some time in prison, one that held out this off season demanding a trade. Eil Manning and his backup and 4 four guys that have never played in a post season game.

It's a crap shoot....

RayNAustin · Post by **RayNAustin** » Mon Dec 26, 2011 4:14 pm

1niksder wrote:
RayNAustin wrote:The hopes and dreams of Redskin fans (even if they are too stubborn or dense headed to realize it) hinges on whether or not Bruce Allen has a little George Allen in his bones, and embraces the idea that "The Future Is Now" and understands that for the Redskins to drag themselves out of a 20 year drought of success, an Elite Quarterback is THE BEST FORMULA given all the evidence we have for how valuable guys like Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady have been to their respective franchises.

What is Andrew Luck really worth ? (assuming he lives up to his potential). He's worth whatever it takes to get him ..... WHATEVER IT TAKES .... 4 #1's ? ABSOLUTELY he's worth every penny of 4 1st round picks without a moment's hesitation.

Your list of elite quarterbacks on has one guy that was taken #1 overall and he was traded the same day, none of the others got picked in the top 20. Two weren't even picked in the 1st round.

If you look at the last 10 QBs taken with the number one overall pick you have two that are no longer in the NFL, one that took a break to spend some time in prison, one that held out this off season demanding a trade. Eil Manning and his backup and 4 four guys that have never played in a post season game.

It's a crap shoot....

That was the point. I never suggested that the QBs I listed were elite. ... just successful to one degree or another, with the truly elite QBs very rare. But I'm covering a lot more territory than just the last 10 picks. I covered the last 20 years, and ALSO noted how many of the Redskin's 17 1st round picks were total busts ... which kinda takes the wind out of the sails of those who think picks shouldn't be traded, as if some other choice besides a QB is somehow a lock for being a star player.

Also, the link I posted showed that among those that are very successful to elite are taken early in the draft, and those who become franchise QB taken later in the draft are almost non-existent.

Top tier QBs coming from the high 1st round picks are about 50/50 success rate .... outside of that, about 95% FAIL rate.

So ... which odds would you take, with YOUR MONEY? 50% or 5% ? That was the point. That 95% fail rate is almost a guaranteed failure, taking the approach many have suggested that we trade down, not up, and pick a QB in the 2nd round ... or trade for someone like Flynn, who fits the same category.

But I don't know a thing. We all know how wrong I was when I told all of you 6 years ago that Jason Campbell would never amount to more than a backup QB at best.