The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

fredp45 wrote:and you believe everything -- or ANYTHING -- you hear from NFL GMs and coaches right now?

Uh, no. What's your point?

I hope you're saying UNCLE, because I'm not...I don't need to!!

I don't believe BPA is some exact science whereby all teams have the same BPA board -- the draft is absolutely a crap shoot.

What I believe is, a teams BPA board on draft day is made up a lot of factors -- and I truly believe that need is part of that equation...as is drug use, college playing days, interviews at combine, etc...

My point is -- you said, I need to be listening to Jay and Scot -- which I do... DO I think a lot of what they're saying is smokescreen, yeah...I do!

fredp45 wrote:I hope you're saying UNCLE, because I'm not...I don't need to!!

I don't believe BPA is some exact science whereby all teams have the same BPA board -- the draft is absolutely a crap shoot.

What I believe is, a teams BPA board on draft day is made up a lot of factors -- and I truly believe that need is part of that equation...as is drug use, college playing days, interviews at combine, etc...

many teams do not draft the best player available in the same manner as we are hoping this franchise will do in this draft ...

The Bucs are clearly not taking the best player available in the draft by taking Winston or Mariota

fredp45 wrote:I don't believe BPA is some exact science whereby all teams have the same BPA board

Master of the straw man. Nobody has remotely implied that.

fredp45 wrote:I hope you're saying UNCLE, because I'm not...I don't need to!!

I don't believe BPA is some exact science whereby all teams have the same BPA board -- the draft is absolutely a crap shoot.

Obviously teams don't have the same boards because they have different scouts who have differing opinions on which player is best. Also, many teams factor in things like need into their boards.

What I believe is, a teams BPA board on draft day is made up a lot of factors -- and I truly believe that need is part of that equation...as is drug use, college playing days, interviews at combine, etc...

You can "truly believe" that the Redskins use need as a substantive contribution to their judgment of BPA, but there are two problems with that belief: (a) it contradicts the basic definition of BPA, which is picking the best player regardless of who you already have on your team, and (b) McCloughan's whole professional career has been dedicated to this BPA strategy I've described. He has been asked about this very specifically and repeatedly and has always given detailed and consistent responses affirming that, no, team needs don't really factor in his draft board.

You can "truly believe" that he's been lying about this 100%, but it's bizarre to me that you do, especially since you have no evidence or good reason to think so.

Keep believe that....

or better put...

keep believing that!

Best Player available – How need could enter into a team’s drafting…

You’re the Skins…you’ve already picked who you believe are the BPAs at rounds 1 & 2 -- an OLB in round 1 and an OL in round 2. (wow, Interesting to note, both are positions of need, but that's unimportant)

It’s your turn to pick in the 3rd round. The next four BPA’s on your board are -- in order:

1) OLB – rated a 74.5 (on whatever scale you use to rate players)
2) WR – rated a 73.5
3) DL – rated a 73.5
4) FS – rated a 73

WHO do you pick? Who does Scot pick? If you go strictly, without a doubt, by Scot’s words you pick the OLB, right?
We all know our team is short on safeties…especially free safeties. We all know our team may have a need for WR in a year or so.
What has to be determined by the war room – do the extra 1.5 rating, MAKE you pick the OLB? Do you give up the 1.5 points to get a FS – a position that you need? OR will you give up 1 rating point to get the WR versus the OLB?
Does Need enter into this process?
I believe it will and -- I believe it has to.

... really amazing

You can SCRATCH Randy Gregory OUT...!!! We ain't touching that pot smoker....!!! He'll drop to the mid or end of round 1.

tribeofjudah wrote:You can SCRATCH Randy Gregory OUT...!!! We ain't touching that pot smoker....!!! He'll drop to the mid or end of round 1.

Two words: Warren Sapp. The Redskins passed on him for this same reason. Don't care if you like him as a person... he was one HELL of a football player.

This isn't to say that I would prefer Gregory... just that this is a dumb reason to pass on a player.

We'll that's up our new GM and staff.

I would also mention: Randy Moss (he was a beast).......... it's the risk you take on draft day.

Countertrey wrote:

tribeofjudah wrote:You can SCRATCH Randy Gregory OUT...!!! We ain't touching that pot smoker....!!! He'll drop to the mid or end of round 1.

Two words: Warren Sapp. The Redskins passed on him for this same reason. Don't care if you like him as a person... he was one HELL of a football player.

This isn't to say that I would prefer Gregory... just that this is a dumb reason to pass on a player.

Do you really think its dumb though? I agree with you that it might be dumb to completely write a guy off, but you definitely need to take a really hard look at him. For every Warren Sapp there's a Fred Davis. And I think you'd agree we are not a team that can afford to pick the wrong guy in the first round.

Its just such epic stupidity. Such an insane lack of discipline that this kid couldn't not smoke for a few weeks leading up to the combine. At #5 I'd probably be more inclined to take the guy who didn't fail his drug test.

Randy Gregory might become a really great player but there are other players that just jumped over him on the depth chart

a really, really dumb choice on his part

we're not taking the chance but I agree that some franchise will

riggofan wrote:

Countertrey wrote:

tribeofjudah wrote:You can SCRATCH Randy Gregory OUT...!!! We ain't touching that pot smoker....!!! He'll drop to the mid or end of round 1.

Two words: Warren Sapp. The Redskins passed on him for this same reason. Don't care if you like him as a person... he was one HELL of a football player.

This isn't to say that I would prefer Gregory... just that this is a dumb reason to pass on a player.

Do you really think its dumb though? I agree with you that it might be dumb to completely write a guy off, but you definitely need to take a really hard look at him. For every Warren Sapp there's a Fred Davis. And I think you'd agree we are not a team that can afford to pick the wrong guy in the first round.

Its just such epic stupidity. Such an insane lack of discipline that this kid couldn't not smoke for a few weeks leading up to the combine. At #5 I'd probably be more inclined to take the guy who didn't fail his drug test.

you still have to weigh everything. I get that "epic stupid" thing, but... you are still dealing with KIDS, in a culture that increasingly says "pot is no big deal". Unless you think that he actually IS NOT going to learn (remember, Fred never gave anyone reason to think he was contrite), you still look at the whole picture. I still think this kid is more Sapp than Davis.

I don't think we're going to "pass" on anyone that we think might become a very good player but Randy Gregory just lost a huge amount of cash because a number of future greats just became a lot more attractive to future employers

I'd pass on Gregory.

Sounds like he's way more than a recreational user...a guy who woke up smoking it.

What will millions of dollars mean to him? I'm afraid we'd have another Tanard...where we know we have a good player but he teases up!

I'm thinking the #1 guy on Scot's board is a 6 foot 5 inch 300+ pounder named Leonard Williams. I'm thinking both QBs, Dante Fowler, and Amari Cooper will be gone and we will snap up Williams with the 5th pick.

DarthMonk wrote:I'm thinking the #1 guy on Scot's board is a 6 foot 5 inch 300+ pounder named Leonard Williams. I'm thinking both QBs, Dante Fowler, and Amari Cooper will be gone and we will snap up Williams with the 5th pick.

This is brilliant! LOL!!! You've been channeling me...

Countertrey wrote:Y'all are setting your sights too low. There is a path... yes a slim one... that can result in the best player in this draft falling to 5. If Winston and Mariotta are taken among the first 2, and the next 2 draft for need, Williams may still be there. This IS possible. Instant BEAST DL. Suddenly, Murphy becomes a much better pass rusher, and Kerrigan gets even better than he is already!

um... aren't I supposed to be dead before you can do that?

Countertrey wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:I'm thinking the #1 guy on Scot's board is a 6 foot 5 inch 300+ pounder named Leonard Williams. I'm thinking both QBs, Dante Fowler, and Amari Cooper will be gone and we will snap up Williams with the 5th pick.

This is brilliant! LOL!!! You've been channeling me...

Countertrey wrote:Y'all are setting your sights too low. There is a path... yes a slim one... that can result in the best player in this draft falling to 5. If Winston and Mariotta are taken among the first 2, and the next 2 draft for need, Williams may still be there. This IS possible. Instant BEAST DL. Suddenly, Murphy becomes a much better pass rusher, and Kerrigan gets even better than he is already!

um... aren't I supposed to be dead before you can do that?

If he is still there at #5, we should RUN to the podium.

While I'm one of the very few posters who believes need is always apart of a teams picks, especially picks early in the first round, I believe Williams would be a great pick --even though we don't really need him in 2015. We have a stout DL without him, of course he wouldn't hurt! HOWEVER, Williams is so good you can't pass on this guy...unless someone wants to move up to get him and will overpay.

DarthMonk wrote:I'm thinking the #1 guy on Scot's board is a 6 foot 5 inch 300+ pounder named Leonard Williams. I'm thinking both QBs, Dante Fowler, and Amari Cooper will be gone and we will snap up Williams with the 5th pick.

From your lips to God's ears . . .

fredp45 wrote:While I'm one of the very few posters who believes need is always apart of a teams picks, especially picks early in the first round, I believe Williams would be a great pick --even though we don't really need him in 2015. We have a stout DL without him, of course he wouldn't hurt! HOWEVER, Williams is so good you can't pass on this guy...unless someone wants to move up to get him and will overpay.

I was thinking that for Scot, need would seldom be a factor - especially early in the first round, and that the only time it would be a factor would be in the sort of tiebreaker scenario you described a few posts back.

Countertrey wrote:

DarthMonk wrote:I'm thinking the #1 guy on Scot's board is a 6 foot 5 inch 300+ pounder named Leonard Williams. I'm thinking both QBs, Dante Fowler, and Amari Cooper will be gone and we will snap up Williams with the 5th pick.

This is brilliant! LOL!!! You've been channeling me...

Countertrey wrote:Y'all are setting your sights too low. There is a path... yes a slim one... that can result in the best player in this draft falling to 5. If Winston and Mariotta are taken among the first 2, and the next 2 draft for need, Williams may still be there. This IS possible. Instant BEAST DL. Suddenly, Murphy becomes a much better pass rusher, and Kerrigan gets even better than he is already!

um... aren't I supposed to be dead before you can do that?

I am simply elevating your insight to the level of a prediction while filling in a few details.