The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Posted: **Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:28 pm**

mastdark81 wrote:If you think about it he probably will want $60mil guaranteed at least. Redskins won't pay that because they will factor in the $20mil he is getting this year under the tage and low ball him to lets say $40mil.

Yes, the Redskins will pay that. If Jay Cutler was worth 7 years and $126.7 million with $54 million guaranteed two years ago, and if Ryan Tannehill was worth 4 years and $77 million with $45 million guaranteed last season then Kirk Cousins is worth at least what Cutler got plus $1 million a year since the salary cap has gone up $32.27 million since Cutler's deal. Andrew Luck got $87 million guaranteed and he hasn't done much more than Kirk Cousins has done.

Posted: **Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:02 pm**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:
mastdark81 wrote:If you think about it he probably will want $60mil guaranteed at least. Redskins won't pay that because they will factor in the $20mil he is getting this year under the tage and low ball him to lets say $40mil.

Yes, the Redskins will pay that. If Jay Cutler was worth 7 years and $126.7 million with $54 million guaranteed two years ago, and if Ryan Tannehill was worth 4 years and $77 million with $45 million guaranteed last season then Kirk Cousins is worth at least what Cutler got plus $1 million a year since the salary cap has gone up $32.27 million since Cutler's deal. Andrew Luck got $87 million guaranteed and he hasn't done much more than Kirk Cousins has done.

Those numbers makes perfect sense from an AGENT perspective but not from the Redskins apparently because they didn't pay it. They could view Cutler as a guy whom if he was here in Washington he would perform better and say hey you shouldn't be getting Cutler money.

Redskins could also play the comparison game and say Brian Hoyer & Cody Kessler currently have a higher passer rating than Kirk so he should be getting what they are currently paid.

Luck has won several playoff games multiple years in the league so he is more accomplished and was a #1 overall pick (that plays heavily) so he had to get an increase percentage wise higher than what he was already making. Colts admitted they overpaid and it would be hard to sign others upcoming but that is another story.

There is no way he is getting Luck's number. I am not saying you are suggesting that but you brought it up, Skins would trade him for a pick if that is what he is asking for. I don't think they believe he is an elite qb. If so he would have been signed long term. Good thing is Kirk has a chance to get whatever he wants and our WINS will dictate what he gets at the end of the year.

Posted: **Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:03 pm**

riggofan wrote:
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:That would be a $4MM paycut for Garcon. I can't think of a single reason why he would or should take a paycut.

I can: he'll be a 31 year old #2 WR. He's finishing up a 5 year $42m contract. I'd be surprised if anybody is matching that this time around.

He absolutely would take $10 million. Not sure I get where the $14 million is coming from; the top paid WR in the league, AJ Green, leads the NFL at $15 million a year. $10 mill a year puts you as a top 15 paid WR...and no one could credibly argue Garcon is a top 15 wideout. I love him as a player, but the dude has had an 1000 yard season exactly 1 time in his career.

Posted: **Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:19 pm**

PulpExposure wrote:
riggofan wrote:
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:That would be a $4MM paycut for Garcon. I can't think of a single reason why he would or should take a paycut.

I can: he'll be a 31 year old #2 WR. He's finishing up a 5 year $42m contract. I'd be surprised if anybody is matching that this time around.

He absolutely would take $10 million. Not sure I get where the $14 million is coming from; the top paid WR in the league, AJ Green, leads the NFL at $15 million a year. $10 mill a year puts you as a top 15 paid WR...and no one could credibly argue Garcon is a top 15 wideout. I love him as a player, but the dude has had an 1000 yard season exactly 1 time in his career.

The discussion is in re Garcon taking a $4 million paycut from $10 million to $6 million.

I'm not sure from where a $14 million figure came either.

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:35 pm**

After this game, Kirk Cousins is:
3rd in Passing yards
4th in completions
4th in yards per game
5th in Yards per attempt
6th in QBR
11th in TDs
14th in INT
22nd in INT %

Since Cousins is top 6 in all major QB statistical categories except TDs (and based on his play over the past 5 games and our opponents, I would expect his stats to improve or at least stay close to where they are currently thru year-end) and the QB position is the most important in the NFL --- I would expect Scot's offseason priorities #1, 2, and 3 to be resigning Cousins.

Going into next year, the cap will be $166M. Currently, our 2017 cap number is $120M; however, I assume that we will cut:
- DHALL: 4.25M savings
- Niles Paul: 2M savings
- Carrier: 1.075M savings
- Lichtensteiger: 3.5M savings
- MJones: 500k savings
- Lauvao??: 4M savings
- Bruton??: 1.6M savings

If you take all of those cuts, we have 62.925M to sign FAs. I can't think of everyone, but we'll need to sign:
- Cousins
- Garcon/DJack
- Baker
- Davis
- Whitner
- Thompson
- Compton
- Nsekhe
- Sundberg?

Taking out Cousins, Garcon, and DJack, I'd expect those resignings to cost roughly $10-14M in Year 1 of their respective contracts. Reduce that by 5M for rookie deals and that leaves us with 44M for Cousins, Garcon/DJack and assorted FAs to fill need. My guess is that we'll allocate $20-22M to Cousins, leaving 24M for Garcon/DJack and other FAs. I personally don't think we'll resign Garcon AND DJack as we hopefully will have Doctson and they are both turning 30 with diminishing stats. Then again, that could be a catalyst in offering (and they accepting) smaller deals --- although this is most likely not how it will play out considering both WRs know this will be their LAST lucrative deal....

Regardless, a whole lot of posters are saying how Cousins "needs" to take less in order to fill out the roster. If I were Cousins, there's no way I'm doing that. I'm taking whatever I can get from a team that has made it particularly difficult on me. There is enough cap space to fill out the roster with what he needs to run a good offense. And after all, the cap situation isn't Cousins' problem. That is up to Scot to make work. Every player should be trying to get everything they are worth. In the NFL, loyalty is for suckers. The only guys that will restructure are the ones that have already made 9 figures in prior contracts and want to win a SB.....

But I am also trying to say that we have the space to pay Cousins 22M and fill out the roster. After all --- stars are not signed, they are DRAFTED. And when you DRAFT stars, they come cheap up front.

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:51 pm**

markshark84 wrote:But I am also trying to say that we have the space to pay Cousins 22M and fill out the roster. After all --- stars are not signed, they are DRAFTED. And when you DRAFT stars, they come cheap up front.

I agree with this comment. The cost comes though that you want to keep those stars you drafted beyond that rookie contract. Those players ARE signed.

There was a great graphic on FOX yesterday during the Eagles/Seahawks game showing how the Seahawks had locked up so many of the key players on that defense for the next several years. I have a feeling that's what McCloughan is looking at for building the team long term.

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:39 pm**

markshark84 wrote:Going into next year, the cap will be $166M.

Source? Last I heard it was projected to be $153.20 million, down slightly from this season.

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:57 pm**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:
markshark84 wrote:Going into next year, the cap will be $166M.

Source? Last I heard it was projected to be $153.20 million, down slightly from this season.

No idea where you are getting that number for a couple reasons:
1. I don't believe the actual 2017 cap number comes out until December
2. The 2016 cap number is $155.27M. So by your estimation, the cap will DECREASE in 2017 --- which would never happen.

Last year the cap went up 8%. If it continues at that trend, it will be $168M. I don't think it will continue the 8% trend given the decreased viewrtship, but I would think it would increase by at least 5%. If that was the case, it would be in the $163M range. If it went up by 7%, we are looking at just over 166M.

I got the 166M number from overthecap.com. I think that is a safe number for purposes of this exercise. It could be a couple million off, but in our case, that isn't a huge issue.

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:26 pm**

Maybe merge this with a thread five days older with almost the exact same name ??

Cousins and the Cap ---- Cousins & the Cap

Posted: **Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:31 pm**

Projected salary cap amounts for the 2017–20 seasons:

2017: $160.98 million

2018: $170.85 million

2019: $179.90 million

2020: $189.04 million

http://salarycapcrunch.com/projecting-n ... 0-seasons/

Posted: **Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:46 pm**

Thought this was a pretty good write up on what a Cousins contract might look like from @spotrac:

I disagree about the way they back loaded the contract so much. We have good enough cap space in 2017 that I don't see why they wouldn't eat some of that cap hit next year and keep the numbers lower later.

Its a lot of money, but I'm telling you by 2019 as long as Cousins is still a decent QB, $23m/yr is a bargain.

With basically three years guaranteed, you can start to see how a contract like this is do-able without crushing the team.

Posted: **Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:27 pm**

riggofan wrote:Thought this was a pretty good write up on what a Cousins contract might look like from @spotrac:

I disagree about the way they back loaded the contract so much. We have good enough cap space in 2017 that I don't see why they wouldn't eat some of that cap hit next year and keep the numbers lower later.

Its a lot of money, but I'm telling you by 2019 as long as Cousins is still a decent QB, $23m/yr is a bargain.

With basically three years guaranteed, you can start to see how a contract like this is do-able without crushing the team.

I see a few glaring problems with their contract. First of all, there is no way in hell Cousins is taking only 40% guaranteed. That would be the lowest GTD% of any veteran starting NFL quarterback. They're dreaming.

Secondly, Jay Cutler got $126.7 million over 7 years with $54 million guaranteed in 2014. Jay Cutler sucks. Kirk Cousins is easily worth more guaranteed money and more total money.

Thirdly, like you said, they've backloaded at least $10 million more than they needed to. Doing that forces the contract to be a longer term.

Obviously, if you mortgage the future of the organization you can sign anyone to any contract. I think the Skins are done playing that game.

Posted: **Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:51 pm**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:I see a few glaring problems with their contract. First of all, there is no way in hell Cousins is taking only 40% guaranteed. That would be the lowest GTD% of any veteran starting NFL quarterback. They're dreaming.

Secondly, Jay Cutler got $126.7 million over 7 years with $54 million guaranteed in 2014. Jay Cutler sucks. Kirk Cousins is easily worth more guaranteed money and more total money.

Sure but that's apples to oranges because of the contract length. Cousins is currently playing on a one year $20m franchise tag. If you put this year into the equation, Cousins will have been paid $135m over six years with $82.5m guaranteed v. Cutlers' 7 years/$54m guaranteed.

If you don't want to consider the tag year, $62.5/5years is sill $5m/yr better than $54/7 years.

I think they're looking at 2016 though as year one cash.

Posted: **Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:19 pm**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:I see a few glaring problems with their contract. First of all, there is no way in hell Cousins is taking only 40% guaranteed. That would be the lowest GTD% of any veteran starting NFL quarterback. They're dreaming.

I looked at that more closely. His guaranteed % is 54%. You're missing the $23m signing bonus. Total guaranteed money is $62.5m not $40m.

Cutler had no signing bonus at all btw in his $54m contract.

Posted: **Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:57 pm**

we have guys here now that know how to continue to make this franchise better and the cap just keeps getting bigger

Time to move on - The FO needs to lock up Cousins and get his replacement ready to go

Posted: **Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:23 am**

The season has to play out. There's still many possibilities.

Best case scenario a Lombardi trophy. Meaning record contact talks.

Worst case scenario Kirk gets injured he might get the tag again.

I think it's somewhere in the middle.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:45 pm**

riggofan wrote:Thought this was a pretty good write up on what a Cousins contract might look like from @spotrac:

I disagree about the way they back loaded the contract so much. We have good enough cap space in 2017 that I don't see why they wouldn't eat some of that cap hit next year and keep the numbers lower later.

Its a lot of money, but I'm telling you by 2019 as long as Cousins is still a decent QB, $23m/yr is a bargain.

With basically three years guaranteed, you can start to see how a contract like this is do-able without crushing the team.

So basically they are saying a 3 year, 62.5M contract. After year 3, the contract has zero dead money cap hit/guaranteed portion. It would inevitably be renegotiated after year 3 as the 31M cap hit would be insanely detrimental to the team.

I think the overall terms of the deal and guaranteed portion could be accurate (the only change would be taking the 10M "roster bonus" in Yrs. 5 & 6 out and making a portion of that "salary" and the other potion roster bonus -- perhaps 6M salary, 4M roster) if that is the way the FO and Cousins want to go. Personally, I wouldn't. For franchise QBs, there are 2 types of contracts:
1. the large number with less guarantee i.e., a 5-6 year, 115M with 55% guaranteed (see Cutler, Kaep, Rodgers, Romom, Newton, Ryan, Dalton, Taylor), or
2. The smaller year, guarantee heavy i.e., 4 year, 85-90M with approx. 70% guaranteed (see Manning, Rivers, Smith, Brady, Flacco, Wilson, Luck) and a good portion of it a signing bonus (around 30M).

The smart option for the player is the 2nd one as after 4 years, they can re-up and the "market" will be higher and receive another signing bonus. With Cousins being 28 now and 32 at next contract, I would expect that he'd want a shorter deal so he can renegotiate in "prime" or closer to prime years. And in the first scenario, most of the contracts are voided/renegotiated to the detriment of the player in later years.

I personally see Cousins have a deal similar to Flacco, but for 4 years. Something like a 4 year, 85M with 65% guaranteed. Then again and knowing Danny boy, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 or 6 year deal that can be voided after 3 --- if feel like Danny boy invented that structure.....

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:01 pm**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:If they offer 6 years, $150MM with 50% guaranteed it will look cheap in three seasons. The cost of quarterbacks is out of control.

A mate said their should be a separate salary cap for the quarterback and the rest of the team; citing how much the position alone warrants. I wouldn't argue with the idea.

Posted: **Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:47 pm**

Here are all contracted players with cap hits over $1 M. Looks like we could easily have $70 in cap room.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:44 am**

DarthMonk wrote:Here are all contracted players with cap hits over $1 M. Looks like we could easily have $70 in cap room.

See ya D. Hall

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:06 am**

Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:
riggofan wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:Too bad we didn't offer 6 years for $110 with $50 guaranteed last year early on. Probably would've done the trick and look real cheap real soon.
No doubt, man. If you pay another franchise tag next year, you're at $45m for two years already.
If you pay another franchise tag next season your GM should be fired.

The guys in charge would like to sign Cousins to a long term deal but not at fair market value for QBs which is out of control

Cousins will get a good offer but I don't think he'll take it - we tag him and he plays a year and then leaves
or
he plays elsewhere in 2017 and we get 2 1st round picks - that's not good but Cousins is not worth stupid money

I'm OK with how we build through the draft by taking BPA but we need to bring in some young free agents to help this defense

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:03 pm**

Deadskins wrote:
DarthMonk wrote:Here are all contracted players with cap hits over $1 M. Looks like we could easily have $70 in cap room.

See ya D. Hall

Same with Lauvao, Lichtensteger, and Paul..... unless they restructure.

DHall understands he's gone though, which is why he made that "I'm not trying to steal from anybody" comment with regards to his contract. He'll either restructure or retire --- as I don't think many teams would be interested. At this point he's an injury liability waiting to happen. If we sign him for $1 more than the league minimum I'd be flabbergasted.

Posted: **Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:48 am**

Does anyone believe Kirk will be an elite qb without Garcon and Jackson - which might happen if we pay Kirk the stupid numbers I've seen on this thread? Replace G & J with Doctson (if he's ever healthy) and some rookie WR or FA Wr that another team lets walk?

I'm worried he's a product of our good, getting better OLine and our numerous weapons...however, take away the two vet WRs, and replacing them with a near rookie WR and another rookie or FA WR. What that means is Reed and Crowder get more doubles and we're relying on the unknowns.

I like Kirk (don't love him), I just don't see him being worth that much cap space. If you read Mark Bullock's recent article on "The case against signing Kirk to a long term deal" it will bring back a bunch of his faults...overthrows wide open WRs (if you watched all the games, tell me you don't remember a number of those?), the dumb INTs he threw, and his propensity to not play well in big games. The Int vs Cowboys in week 2 was a back breaker, the final game against the Giants, the Panther game... I recognize the Defense failed us a number of times too but if you give him 20 mil of cap this year, it'll be hard to improve the D, OL and keep one or both of G or J.

I do think this issue is NOT -- is Kirk a good qb, he is..it's about, is he worth that much of our cap? 20 mil (which is on the low end) is about 1/8 of our cap! Is he good enough and enough of a game changer to warrant that much of the cap?

Will he be what he is 3 years from now? If so, I don't want to give him that much cap space -- be clear, it's not about money, that's Danny's issue, I care about the cap!

If Kyle wants him bad enough, I'll take their #2 this year and their #1 next year or a bunch of other lower picks, some being this year.

Posted: **Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:14 pm**

I trust he's good enough to unearth solid players like Jamison Crowder.

If Cousins decides to stay here, pressure will be more intense without Garçon or JDax.

Posted: **Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:54 pm**

If Cousins signs a long term deal he's going to get a lot more than he's worth - that's fine - we just need to be able to pay all the other players we need to be competitive because there's no way we're any good just because we have The Best Redskin In Decades playing QB - NO WAY

I'm all in for keeping Cousins but not if he wants stupid money - HE'S NOT WORTH IT

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