The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

aswas71788 wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:I think that fans that think we are picking in the top 5 in the draft in 2012 are going to be a little disapointed

certainly a good indication they have ZERO idea about putting together a franchise

I would bet that the Redskins pick at about the same place as they did last year or maybe a little lower due to the soft schedule. Somewhere 10 to 14.

Curious as to what you are basing 10 - 14 on?
Here is my run down by positons as to why the Redskins will be better next year and will contend for at least a wild card into the last couple of weeks in the season. Since free agency hasn't happened except before the lockout, I will only look at who is currently on the roster to include draftees.

*You mention the soft schedule - that's a plus for a better record. Not a gimme but a plus.
*The O line- Better. Even if we don't add someone from free agency, it has to be better - they got better towards the end of last year. Theoretically Williams will be better, Kory will be better, Montgomery at guard will be better. Jaamal will be healed and better. They are all, at least, in their second year of Shanny ZBS. OK, you got me on Rabach - he won't be better, but even without any additions these guys can expect to play better because they know the scheme better.
*QB - Better. Grossman played just as well as McNabb - check his stats in his three starts. He kept us in all three games he started. With better O line play this year - QB play will be better this year. Grossman running Kyle's O the right way is better than McNabb running it wrong. Beck is the unknown so we will leave him out at this time.
*Recievers - Better. Assuming Moss is back. Armstrong should be better. Moss has found a home in the slot. Hankerson has to be better than Galloway. So our starting receivers are better. TE's - ey is ey. Could this be the year we exploit Fred Davis' talents?
*Running Backs - Better. Torain better (yes unknown about health), Helu - one cut with speed didn't have last year. Williams should be better. Just these three make out running back corps better than last year.
* The Defense - Better. It will be in its second year of the 3-4 that will make them better as is.
*The D line. Better. Already been upgraded with Anthony Young showing that he can hold space much better than Kemo. The Rookie Neild should give added depth at NT. The Rookie Jenkins should be an upgrade at one end. Carriker came on inthe second half of the season
*LBs - Better. Kerrigan is an upgrade over Carter and Alexander. Rocky, Fletch and Orakpo participated in player workouts so they all appear to be back. LBs are better than last year especially because it is their second year in this system.
*DBs - Better. Again going what we currently have on the roster - OJ, LL, CR and DH That lineup is clearly better than last year.
*ST - Better. Has to be better with the type of draft picks Shanny picked. Gano? Ok - we don't know about this guy. He is a key unknown as to how he will respond this year. Punter? - a question mark.

Intangibles. I have already mentioned the second year of the offense and defense in their respective schemes, but here is big difference maker for this year - This is becoming Mike's team. From a bunch of heavily fined guys by Mike to a bunch of work ethic guys picked by Mike. In the last three games, last year, a group of no name players didn't quit and came from 20+ points down against the Cowboys on their home turf to make a game out of a rout, they beat a play off contending Jax team on its home turf, they played the best Redskin game against the Giants (a play off contending team last year )since 2007. A bunch of no name guys did this!

Based on picks 10-15 this year - those teams had losing records and pick 16 had an 8-8 team. Why do you think the Skins will have a losing record next year? What are you basing that on?

No Luck fo rnext year!

Red_One43 wrote:
Curious as to what you are basing 10 - 14 on?
Here is my run down by positons as to why the Redskins will be better next year and will contend for at least a wild card into the last couple of weeks in the season. Since free agency hasn't happened except before the lockout, I will only look at who is currently on the roster to include draftees.

Currently on the roster and returning from last season is a big difference, with no CBA you can really only count the draftees and hope for the best with the free agents.

Blades, Buchanon, Golston, Grossman, Wilson and Heyer may return but
McIntosh, Rogers, and Brown might find work elsewhere while Doughty, Jones, Joseph, and Westbrook may not be offered contracts.

Red_One43 wrote:*You mention the soft schedule - that's a plus for a better record. Not a gimme but a plus.

But is it really a soft schedule? They have a early bye week and face the Jets, Giants, Eagles and Pats in the last five weeks after returning from Seattle.

Red_One43 wrote:*The O line- Better. Even if we don't add someone from free agency, it has to be better - they got better towards the end of last year. Theoretically Williams will be better, Kory will be better, Montgomery at guard will be better. Jaamal will be healed and better. They are all, at least, in their second year of Shanny ZBS. OK, you got me on Rabach - he won't be better, but even without any additions these guys can expect to play better because they know the scheme better.

Again the reality is Williams is the best lineman we have, we hope Kory and Montgomery are better as the starting guards although both are better centers than Rabach. Jaamal says he wants to play the same position that a first round pick was spent on last season, but may just want LT money. So there are still big holes here.

Red_One43 wrote:*QB - Better. Grossman played just as well as McNabb - check his stats in his three starts. He kept us in all three games he started. With better O line play this year - QB play will be better this year. Grossman running Kyle's O the right way is better than McNabb running it wrong. Beck is the unknown so we will leave him out at this time.

Can't argue Grossman with a better line versus McNabb with what he had, because that's the past and #5 won't be around. You dismiss Beck but he he has one thing Grossman doesn't... a contract

Red_One43 wrote:*Recievers - Better. Assuming Moss is back. Armstrong should be better. Moss has found a home in the slot. Hankerson has to be better than Galloway. So our starting receivers are better. TE's - ey is ey. Could this be the year we exploit Fred Davis' talents?
*Running Backs - Better. Torain better (yes unknown about health), Helu - one cut with speed didn't have last year. Williams should be better. Just these three make out running back corps better than last year.

They have made upgrades on paper, yet again a free agent is the key to this unit being better, and a veteran RB wouldn't surprise me either.

Red_One43 wrote: * The Defense - Better. It will be in its second year of the 3-4 that will make them better as is.
*The D line. Better. Already been upgraded with Anthony Young showing that he can hold space much better than Kemo. The Rookie Neild should give added depth at NT. The Rookie Jenkins should be an upgrade at one end. Carriker came on inthe second half of the season
*LBs - Better. Kerrigan is an upgrade over Carter and Alexander. Rocky, Fletch and Orakpo participated in player workouts so they all appear to be back. LBs are better than last year especially because it is their second year in this system.
*DBs - Better. Again going what we currently have on the roster - OJ, LL, CR and DH That lineup is clearly better than last year.

Got to go may be better here....

Can we say Kerrigan who has never played OLB will be better than AC a guy everyone knew wasn't a OLB but had played the spot before? The front seven will be a group that has never played together before regardless of what they are in the scheme. If Rocky doesn't resign that's another newbie learning how the guys around him play. Same goes if Rogers signs somewhere else


I could see them going 8-8 or 9-7 (a 2 or 3 win improvement over 2010) but doubt they make the post season, but 2012

1niksder wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:
Curious as to what you are basing 10 - 14 on?
Here is my run down by positons as to why the Redskins will be better next year and will contend for at least a wild card into the last couple of weeks in the season. Since free agency hasn't happened except before the lockout, I will only look at who is currently on the roster to include draftees.

Currently on the roster and returning from last season is a big difference, with no CBA you can really only count the draftees and hope for the best with the free agents.

Blades, Buchanon, Golston, Grossman, Wilson and Heyer may return but
McIntosh, Rogers, and Brown might find work elsewhere while Doughty, Jones, Joseph, and Westbrook may not be offered contracts.

Red_One43 wrote:*You mention the soft schedule - that's a plus for a better record. Not a gimme but a plus.

But is it really a soft schedule? They have a early bye week and face the Jets, Giants, Eagles and Pats in the last five weeks after returning from Seattle.

Red_One43 wrote:*The O line- Better. Even if we don't add someone from free agency, it has to be better - they got better towards the end of last year. Theoretically Williams will be better, Kory will be better, Montgomery at guard will be better. Jaamal will be healed and better. They are all, at least, in their second year of Shanny ZBS. OK, you got me on Rabach - he won't be better, but even without any additions these guys can expect to play better because they know the scheme better.

Again the reality is Williams is the best lineman we have, we hope Kory and Montgomery are better as the starting guards although both are better centers than Rabach. Jaamal says he wants to play the same position that a first round pick was spent on last season, but may just want LT money. So there are still big holes here.

Red_One43 wrote:*QB - Better. Grossman played just as well as McNabb - check his stats in his three starts. He kept us in all three games he started. With better O line play this year - QB play will be better this year. Grossman running Kyle's O the right way is better than McNabb running it wrong. Beck is the unknown so we will leave him out at this time.

Can't argue Grossman with a better line versus McNabb with what he had, because that's the past and #5 won't be around. You dismiss Beck but he he has one thing Grossman doesn't... a contract

Red_One43 wrote:*Recievers - Better. Assuming Moss is back. Armstrong should be better. Moss has found a home in the slot. Hankerson has to be better than Galloway. So our starting receivers are better. TE's - ey is ey. Could this be the year we exploit Fred Davis' talents?
*Running Backs - Better. Torain better (yes unknown about health), Helu - one cut with speed didn't have last year. Williams should be better. Just these three make out running back corps better than last year.

They have made upgrades on paper, yet again a free agent is the key to this unit being better, and a veteran RB wouldn't surprise me either.

Red_One43 wrote: * The Defense - Better. It will be in its second year of the 3-4 that will make them better as is.
*The D line. Better. Already been upgraded with Anthony Young showing that he can hold space much better than Kemo. The Rookie Neild should give added depth at NT. The Rookie Jenkins should be an upgrade at one end. Carriker came on inthe second half of the season
*LBs - Better. Kerrigan is an upgrade over Carter and Alexander. Rocky, Fletch and Orakpo participated in player workouts so they all appear to be back. LBs are better than last year especially because it is their second year in this system.
*DBs - Better. Again going what we currently have on the roster - OJ, LL, CR and DH That lineup is clearly better than last year.

Got to go may be better here....

Can we say Kerrigan who has never played OLB will be better than AC a guy everyone knew wasn't a OLB but had played the spot before? The front seven will be a group that has never played together before regardless of what they are in the scheme. If Rocky doesn't resign that's another newbie learning how the guys around him play. Same goes if Rogers signs somewhere else


I could see them going 8-8 or 9-7 (a 2 or 3 win improvement over 2010) but doubt they make the post season, but 2012

So we are in agreement. I said contend for a post season spot up until the last couple weeks in the season which usually translates to 8-8 and 9-7 (Of course, last season, it was 7-9 (Rams) to 10-6 (Giants)). Yes, there are too many holes to expect a sure play-off team. Even scoring big (meaning guys that fit - not names) in free agency, it will be a challenge to make the play-offs, because we do need some talent upgrades and we need better play out of Gano and whoever our punter will be.

The intangibles will make the biggest difference - A bunch of high motor guys with a work ethic to win, picked to fit the defensive and offensive schemes will make this team better (key word is better) than last year's team. According to Shanny, last year's team was the most fined team he ever coached. No wonder guys like Tryon and others said words to the effect, that winning was not a priority amongst Redskin players. Just changing that culture makes a team better.

Notes*

*I chose the current roster to show how even with the current players we would be better. If McIntosh, Rogers and Brown leave it will be because we let them go and that we have other players we want to replace them. I could speculate we get Nnamdi Asomugha who is better than Rogers. I could speculate we get Ryan Harris for right tackle who knows ZBS . I could speculate that we get a true 3-4 ILB in free agency or speculate, as I believe, that Riley is the real deal and maybe even Henson, as others believe, to take McIntosh's spot. I am trying to reduce the speculation by just looking at who we have currently on this roster and looking at how they played last year and the reasons why they might not have played their best. If folks are going to predict a team performance no better than last season, before free agency plays out and before the CBA, then I ask, what are they basing their prediction on? Not only am I using the current roster to reduce speculating, I am using the current roster to show that these exact same guys would be better than last year because of the number guys who were coming off missed seasons (2009) - Kemo, Jarmon, Carriker, Brown are now healed. They will be going into their second year of their schemes. They will have a QB that will run the system as prescribed. Hankerson (unproven rookie) vs. Galloway? I mean no knock on Galloway's career play, but he didn't finish the season (it wasn't because of injury). That's a bust in my book. So even if Hankerson turns out to be a bust (which I highly doubt), he would still be an upgrade over Galloway.

*I didn't dismiss Beck. He didn't play last year, so I had no hard data to base saying that he would be an upgrade the QB position, or at least just as good. If I go by gut, I would say Kyle's O can help make Beck a better QB, he is willing to run it like Kyle wants it to be run. Beck has better upside than Grossman but so did McNabb.

*On Kerrigan being better than AC at LB - did you see AC out there?(I am using the reverse here, that we were so weak that Kerrigan gets the nod as better) That is why Alexander, a guy who never played the postion before took his place. Kerrigan is a high motor guy that wants to play LB and wants to be good. That work ethic and desire makes me willing to say he will be better than AC at that posiion and as good, if not better, right off the bat than Alexander. The only question that remains for Kerrigan is, can he be a stud LB. We know he can pass rush, but can do pass coverage effectively? We know AC and Zo were weak in that area. Therefore Kerrigan will be better.

*On the prospective front seven never having played together. Last year's front seven never played together, so the front sevens of last year and the prosepctive front seven are equal on that issue. My point was this front seven will be better just with who is on the roster from last year. With Young (he had a concussion for most of the year and missed a lot of games), Kemo (healed), Neild (high motor guy) as NTs. Carriker (played better at the end of the season - he was coming off injured reserve from the previos season), Jenkins (considered a good fit), Jarmon (who will be healed) as ends. Your point of not having played together is well taken as a reason why not to expect a play off season, but when you stay with me on my point, you might agree that our front seven will be better this year as a unit than last year.

*On the schedule, like I said, not a gimme that it is soft. It is hard to gage schedules at the beginning of the season, but I rather be looking at ours than Philadelphia's (keeping it in the division).

For those who see the Redskins as being no better than last year, I ask, what are you basing that on? Keep in mind that free agency hasn't played out yet.

So, to keep it on topic, we can win with Beck or Grossman. Winning record - yes. Play offs? long shot.

Strength of schedule link:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... f-schedule

Red_One43 wrote:

1niksder wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:
Curious as to what you are basing 10 - 14 on?
Here is my run down by positons as to why the Redskins will be better next year and will contend for at least a wild card into the last couple of weeks in the season. Since free agency hasn't happened except before the lockout, I will only look at who is currently on the roster to include draftees.

Currently on the roster and returning from last season is a big difference, with no CBA you can really only count the draftees and hope for the best with the free agents.

Blades, Buchanon, Golston, Grossman, Wilson and Heyer may return but
McIntosh, Rogers, and Brown might find work elsewhere while Doughty, Jones, Joseph, and Westbrook may not be offered contracts.

Red_One43 wrote:*You mention the soft schedule - that's a plus for a better record. Not a gimme but a plus.

But is it really a soft schedule? They have a early bye week and face the Jets, Giants, Eagles and Pats in the last five weeks after returning from Seattle.

Red_One43 wrote:*The O line- Better. Even if we don't add someone from free agency, it has to be better - they got better towards the end of last year. Theoretically Williams will be better, Kory will be better, Montgomery at guard will be better. Jaamal will be healed and better. They are all, at least, in their second year of Shanny ZBS. OK, you got me on Rabach - he won't be better, but even without any additions these guys can expect to play better because they know the scheme better.

Again the reality is Williams is the best lineman we have, we hope Kory and Montgomery are better as the starting guards although both are better centers than Rabach. Jaamal says he wants to play the same position that a first round pick was spent on last season, but may just want LT money. So there are still big holes here.

Red_One43 wrote:*QB - Better. Grossman played just as well as McNabb - check his stats in his three starts. He kept us in all three games he started. With better O line play this year - QB play will be better this year. Grossman running Kyle's O the right way is better than McNabb running it wrong. Beck is the unknown so we will leave him out at this time.

Can't argue Grossman with a better line versus McNabb with what he had, because that's the past and #5 won't be around. You dismiss Beck but he he has one thing Grossman doesn't... a contract

Red_One43 wrote:*Recievers - Better. Assuming Moss is back. Armstrong should be better. Moss has found a home in the slot. Hankerson has to be better than Galloway. So our starting receivers are better. TE's - ey is ey. Could this be the year we exploit Fred Davis' talents?
*Running Backs - Better. Torain better (yes unknown about health), Helu - one cut with speed didn't have last year. Williams should be better. Just these three make out running back corps better than last year.

They have made upgrades on paper, yet again a free agent is the key to this unit being better, and a veteran RB wouldn't surprise me either.

Red_One43 wrote: * The Defense - Better. It will be in its second year of the 3-4 that will make them better as is.
*The D line. Better. Already been upgraded with Anthony Young showing that he can hold space much better than Kemo. The Rookie Neild should give added depth at NT. The Rookie Jenkins should be an upgrade at one end. Carriker came on inthe second half of the season
*LBs - Better. Kerrigan is an upgrade over Carter and Alexander. Rocky, Fletch and Orakpo participated in player workouts so they all appear to be back. LBs are better than last year especially because it is their second year in this system.
*DBs - Better. Again going what we currently have on the roster - OJ, LL, CR and DH That lineup is clearly better than last year.

Got to go may be better here....

Can we say Kerrigan who has never played OLB will be better than AC a guy everyone knew wasn't a OLB but had played the spot before? The front seven will be a group that has never played together before regardless of what they are in the scheme. If Rocky doesn't resign that's another newbie learning how the guys around him play. Same goes if Rogers signs somewhere else


I could see them going 8-8 or 9-7 (a 2 or 3 win improvement over 2010) but doubt they make the post season, but 2012

So we are in agreement. I said contend for a post season spot up until the last couple weeks in the season which usually translates to 8-8 and 9-7 (Of course, last season, it was 7-9 (Rams) to 10-6 (Giants)). Yes, there are too many holes to expect a sure play-off team. Even scoring big (meaning guys that fit - not names), it will be a challenge to make the play-offs because we do need some talent upgrades and we need better play out of Gano and whoever our punter will be.

The intangibles will make the biggest difference - A bunch of high motor guys with a work ethic to win, picked to fit the defensive and offensive schemes will make this team better (key word is better) than last year's team. According to Shanny, last year's team was the most fined team he ever coached. No wonder guys like Tryon and others said words to the effect, that winning was not a priority amongst Redskin players. Just changing that culture makes a team better.

Notes*

*I chose the current roster to show how even with the current players we would be better. If McIntosh, Rogers and Brown leave it will be because we let them go and that we have other players we want to replace them. I could speculate we get Nnamdi Asomugha who is better than Rogers. I could speculate we get Ryan Harris for right tackle who knows ZBS . I could speculate that we get a true 3-4 ILB in free agency or speculate, as I believe, that Riley is the real deal and maybe even Henson, as others believe, to take McIntoshes spot. I am trying to reduce the speculation by just looking at who we have on this currently on this roster and looking at how they played last year and the reasons why they might not have played their best. If folks are going to predict a team performance no better than last season, before free agency plays out and before the CBA, then I asked what are they basing their prediction on. Not only am I using the current roster to reduce speculating, I am using the current roster to show that these exact same guys would be better than last year because of the number guys who were coming off missed seasons - Kemo, Jarmon, Carriker, Brown are now healed. They will be going into their second year of their schemes. They will have a QB that will run the system as prescribed. Hankerson (un proven rookie) vs. Galloway? I mean no knock in Galloway's career play, but he didn't end finish the season (it wasn't because of injury). That's a bust in my book. So even if Hankerson turns out to be a bust (which I highly doubt), he would still be an upgrade over Galloway.

*I didn't dismiss Beck. He didn't play last year, so I had no hard data to base saying that he would be an upgrade the QB position, or at least just as good. If I go by gut, I would say Kyle's O can help make Beck a better QB, he is willing to run it like Kyle wants it to be run. Beck has better upside than Grossman but so did McNabb.

*On Kerrigan being better than AC at LB - did you see AC out there (I am using the reverse here, that we were so weak that Kerrigan gets the nod as better)? That is why Alexander, a guy who never played the postion before took his place. Kerrigan is a high motor guy that wants to play LB and wants to be good. That work ethic and desire makes me willing to say he will be better than AC at that posiion and as good, if not better, right off the bat than Alexander. The only question that remains for Kerrigan is, can he be a stud LB. We know he can pass rush, but can do pass coverage effectively? We know AC and Zo were weak in that area. Therefore Kerrigan will be better.

*On the prospective front line never having played together. Last year the front line never played together, so they front sevens of last year and the prosepctive front seven are equal on that issue. My point was this front seven will be better just with who is on the roster from last year. with Young (he had a concussion for most of the year and missed a lot of games), Kemo (healed), Neild (high motor guy) as NTs. Carriker (played better at the end of the season - he was coming off injured reserve from the previos season), Jenkins (considered a good fit), Jarmon (who will be healed) as ends. Your point of not having played together is well taken as a reason why not to expect a play off season, but when you stay with me on my point.

*On the schedule, like I said, not gimme that it is soft. It is hard to gage schedules at the beginning of the season, but I rather be looking at ours than Philadelphia's (keeping it in the division).

For those who see the Redskins as being no better than last year, I ask, what are you basing that on? Keep in mind that free agency hasn't played out yet.

So, to keep it on topic, we can win with Beck or Grossman. Winning record - yes. Play offs? long shot.

Strength of schedule link:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... f-schedule

This has got to be one of the best point-counterpoint discussions I have seen in many months. There is respectful discussion, well identified opinion, fact, challenge, and response, all with no emotional defensiveness or counterattack.

Well done, SJ, CH, LPJ, ATX, hamo, aswas, chiefhogs, canes, RO43, 1niks, and everyone else!
I'm hoping a few folks are paying attention to how it's done! It's not necessary to be disagreeable in order to disagree.

Thanks for the encouragement, CT!

Of course, being better does not a better record make.

Do we split in our division? Maybe but we probably all agree we are the worst team going in and 2-4 in the NFC East would be a realistic expectation if not actually optimistic.

Pats, Jets, Fins, and Bills? At least 2 of them are better than we are and the Fins and Bills are on the road. 2-2 would be a success. 1-3 would not be a surprise.

Cards and 49ers at home and Seahawks and Rams away? This is our chance. I see anywhere from 4-0 to 0-4 with 2-2 being a relistic expectation.

@ Carolina and the Vikes here? Let's be very optimistic and say 2-0.

I see 2-4 plus 2-2 plus 2-2 plus 2-0 making 8-8 an optimistic good result while there is a real possibility of going 1-5 plus 1-3 plus 2-2 plus 1-1 allowing us to be a pessimistic and not unlikely 5-11.

7-9 seems about right. I'll attend 2 games and cheer wildly. Inspite of everything that happened last year I will feel less confident on opening day against the Giants with Rex than I did last year at home against a Cowboy team (that had just gone 13-3) with McNabb.

DarthMonk

DarthMonk wrote:

Of course, being better does not a better record make.

This is very true. Being better doesn't always mean a better record. Injuries can send a better team's record south real quick. Also, tinkering with a roster during the season as Mike did last season can cost a few games. Rotating guards during the season games? What's Mike's priority for this season? Long range or short range?

Do we split in our division? Maybe but we probably all agree we are the worst team going in and 2-4 in the NFC East would be a realistic expectation if not actually optimistic.

We haven't beaten the Giants since 2007. We split with the Dallas and Philly last year and in other years. It is quite reasonable to see 2-4. Removing my burgundy and gold lenses, I would have to admit, that we look like the worst team in the division.

Pats, Jets, Fins, and Bills? At least 2 of them are better than we are and the Fins and Bills are on the road. 2-2 would be a success. 1-3 would not be a surprise.

2-2 is reasonable.

Cards and 49ers at home and Seahawks and Rams away? This is our chance. I see anywhere from 4-0 to 0-4 with 2-2 being a relistic expectation.

2-2 is realistic

@ Carolina and the Vikes here? Let's be very optimistic and say 2-0.

I don't even have to put on my burgundy and gold lenses to see 2-0.

I see 2-4 plus 2-2 plus 2-2 plus 2-0 making 8-8 an optimistic good result while there is a real possibility of going 1-5 plus 1-3 plus 2-2 plus 1-1 allowing us to be a pessimistic and not unlikely 5-11.

I like your work with the numbers and respect your opinion, but who saw the Buccaneers as a 10-6 team last season coming into the season? There are always surprises. The Redskins will be a better team next year and barring a slew of injuries, have a better record. One major difference, from last year to this year, regardless of whose names are on the backs of the jerseys, is this team is becoming Mike's team - this year's team will be his guys he personally brought in or guys who were here before, but bought into his system. There will be some surprise showings by these high motor, work ethic guys. One more thing, have you done any scouting reports on the teams we play this year. We don't play Pittsburgh this year, but even a consistent NFL power like the Steelers finish 8-8 like 2 years ago. Not likely for the Pats, but are the Jets that stable?

7-9 seems about right. I'll attend 2 games and cheer wildly. Inspite of everything that happened last year I will feel less confident on opening day against the Giants with Rex than I did last year at home against a Cowboy team (that had just gone 13-3) with McNabb.

I understand why you feel less confident. We haven't beaten these guys since 2007. Rex threw what looked like a gimme interception and coughed the ball up twice while driving into Giant territory. Here's a reason to feel confident. You remember how our reserves nearly beat the play off contending Giants last year in the last game with Rex at QB? These will be Mike's high motor, work ethic guys short on talent, but long on playing every play to win, playing the Giants who just might be heading in the opposite direction of the Skins after their let down last season that almost cost Coughlin his job.

Thanks also Ct

My feelings about the overall performance are based on 2 things:

the OC and DC will do a better job - I think that Kyle and Jim did not handle their jobs or the players as well as they should have

the players will continue to show (as the offensive line did towards the end of last year) that they get it and, just as importantly they really want it

the fact is this is most importantly a team game and we need another season together to be consistently competitive on both sides of the ball

we are lacking at the most important position on the team = the QB - I am not at all confident that ANYONE is going to come in here and suddenly we're going to have a dependable QB

that is why I am hopeful we can continue to grow and that we'll have a chance at seeing a consistently competitive product on the field and a franchise that is playoff bound each and every year - this is entirely possible next season

predicting records is not really easy this far out - I just hope we add guys that make the other guys already here better but also for the long term not just for a year or two

I also hope we see a lot younger group here this season

I do believe this staff will be very aggressive and will continue to make the players feel that they have to earn their positions

I think this franchise is on the right track

I don't think that McNabb is here but I sure hope these guys have a QB in mind not named Beck or Grossman

SkinsJock wrote:Thanks also Ct

My feelings about the overall performance are based on 2 things:

the OC and DC will do a better job - I think that Kyle and Jim did not handle their jobs or the players as well as they should have

the players will continue to show (as the offensive line did towards the end of last year) that they get it and, just as importantly they really want it

the fact is this is most importantly a team game and we need another season together to be consistently competitive on both sides of the ball

we are lacking at the most important position on the team = the QB - I am not at all confident that ANYONE is going to come in here and suddenly we're going to have a dependable QB

that is why I am hopeful we can continue to grow and that we'll have a chance at seeing a consistently competitive product on the field and a franchise that is playoff bound each and every year - this is entirely possible next season

predicting records is not really easy this far out - I just hope we add guys that make the other guys already here better but also for the long term not just for a year or two

I also hope we see a lot younger group here this season

I do believe this staff will be very aggressive and will continue to make the players feel that they have to earn their positions

I think this franchise is on the right track

I don't think that McNabb is here but I sure hope these guys have a QB in mind not named Beck or Grossman

I see on Hog Haven that proficiency ratings based on film studies show that our only offensive lineman who is as good as the average NFL offensive lineman is Mongomery. T. Williams and Heyer are rated among the worse 22 OL players in the league. Stats also show that our so-called improvement in OL play over the course of the year was imaginery.

I've said it before and will say it again. Until we drastically improve the OL by acquiring new, talented personel, we will not have an effective quarterback. I also say that those who think the current bunch of journeymen and geezers will "come together" are wrong. Further, my expectation of T. Williams is that he will step up to being an average player, that is, if he works hard. I think we made a mistake in drafting him as high as we did. I hope I'm wrong. Anyway, neither Grossman nor Beck will do zip this year.

Red_One43 wrote:this team is becoming Mike's team - this year's team will be his guys he personally brought in or guys who were here before, but bought into his system. There will be some surprise showings by these high motor, work ethic guys.

This is one of the main things. In spite of everything we did wrong last year we easily could have had a much better (or worse) record. We could go 5-11 this year. We could also find something and go 11-5. I feel like we are a 7-9 club that is finally starting to do things we need to do to get good long-term. I am not impatient. I will gladly suffer some more to get good. I want to be young and hungry. It means more than a lot of other things ... and who knows, like Tampa and the Ravens before them, youth movements sometimes pay instant dividends. Having said all that, there is plenty of rationale for thinking we will have a losing record this coming season.

DarthMonk

7-9 would be a losing record - but also would be "better" than last season

the record is not as important this season as putting the team in a position to be able to be a playoff contender ever year from 2012 on

I am looking at putting a group of players together that consistently are in the playoffs

2011 is the first step towards that goal

even when we make the playoffs each and every year - I guarantee we'll have some fans here that say we should be doing better

gotta love this site

DarthMonk wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:this team is becoming Mike's team - this year's team will be his guys he personally brought in or guys who were here before, but bought into his system. There will be some surprise showings by these high motor, work ethic guys.

This is one of the main things. In spite of everything we did wrong last year we easily could have had a much better (or worse) record. We could go 5-11 this year. We could also find something and go 11-5. I feel like we are a 7-9 club that is finally starting to do things we need to do to get good long-term. I am not impatient. I will gladly suffer some more to get good. I want to be young and hungry. It means more than a lot of other things ... and who knows, like Tampa and the Ravens before them, youth movements sometimes pay instant dividends. Having said all that, there is plenty of rationale for thinking we will have a losing record this coming season.

DarthMonk

I hear ya, but let's come back to this after free agency and see if what happens there influences your opinion to change any.

crazyhorse1 wrote:

I see on Hog Haven that proficiency ratings based on film studies show that our only offensive lineman who is as good as the average NFL offensive lineman is Mongomery. T. Williams and Heyer are rated among the worse 22 OL players in the league. Stats also show that our so-called improvement in OL play over the course of the year was imaginery.

Rich Tandler:

A quick way to evaluate an offensive line is to look at the sacks allowed per pass play and the average yards per rush. Here is how the Redskins did in those areas in 2010 for the first ten games and then for the last six, when Montgomery and Lichtensteiger were the starting guards.

Yards/rush
First 10: 4.1 yards
Last 6: 4.3 yards

Sacks/pass play
First 10: 7.6%
Last 6: 6.3%

The improvement in yards per rush attempt is small but not insignificant. The league average for the sack rate is about 6.5 percent so they improved from bad to mediocre when the line became set.

These aren't imaginery gains. They weren't significant, but they were still gains.

crazyhorse1 wrote:

I've said it before and will say it again. Until we drastically improve the OL by acquiring new, talented personel, we will not have an effective quarterback. I also say that those who think the current bunch of journeymen and geezers will "come together" are wrong. Further, my expectation of T. Williams is that he will step up to being an average player, that is, if he works hard. I think we made a mistake in drafting him as high as we did. I hope I'm wrong. Anyway, neither Grossman nor Beck will do zip this year.

Rich Tandler:

Certainly, they want to be better than average and maybe a change of personnel would accomplish that. But, wait, they did that a year ago. Only one 2009 starter, center Casey Rabach, started on the line in 2010. And Jammal Brown, the starting right tackle in 2010, is a free agent and may or may not be back. So, after undergoing 80 percent turnover on the line last year, do the Redskins really want to have another change of 40 to 60 percent this year? Talent is important but so is continuity....The rule of thumb is that an offensive line needs to play together for 1000 snaps before it starts to gel. The current unit has fewer than 400 snaps together. Do Mike Shanahan and company have enough faith in the current unit to give them the work they need to function as a unit? Or will they shake things up again and restart the snap count at zero?

I think that Mike is still tinkering and will go after some O linemen in free agency like Davin Joseph G ( A Bruce Allen draftee) and Ryan Harris T ( A Shanahan Denver draftee). Send the sanp count back to zero. We do need better than average line play especially with Beck or Grossman at QB because all young QBs need a running game to take the pressure off of them.

http://www.csnwashington.com/06/30/11/R ... eedID=4717

SkinsJock wrote:

the record is not as important this season as putting the team in a position to be able to be a playoff contender ever year from 2012 on

I am looking at putting a group of players together that consistently are in the playoffs

2011 is the first step towards that goal

Well said! This is what Mike's priority is for this season. More long range planning. We will see more tinkering from Mike such as once again turnover on the O line and for that matter turn over of personnel. As Dangelo Hall said. Mike is looking for 53 guys who are high motor, work ethic guys.

The first and major problem is the drilled in idea that this team is one player/one year away from the play offs, AND the fans expectations that this team be fixed in one or two years.

Face the facts folks, if this was a good team with good management and we only changed the coaching staff this team could turn around quickly like Green Bay did, but the Skins are not that fortunate. They have had poor management, poor coaching, and poor player aquasition. No way should anyone be EXPECTING a one year fix after 10 years of ruining the team.

Our best hope is everyone from the ownership down stays patient and allows Allen and MS to fix this mess which might take the usual 3-4 years to fix.

SkinsJock wrote:Thanks also Ct

My feelings about the overall performance are based on 2 things:

the OC and DC will do a better job - I think that Kyle and Jim did not handle their jobs or the players as well as they should have

the players will continue to show (as the offensive line did towards the end of last year) that they get it and, just as importantly they really want it

the fact is this is most importantly a team game and we need another season together to be consistently competitive on both sides of the ball

we are lacking at the most important position on the team = the QB - I am not at all confident that ANYONE is going to come in here and suddenly we're going to have a dependable QBthat is why I am hopeful we can continue to grow and that we'll have a chance at seeing a consistently competitive product on the field and a franchise that is playoff bound each and every year - this is entirely possible next season

predicting records is not really easy this far out - I just hope we add guys that make the other guys already here better but also for the long term not just for a year or two

I also hope we see a lot younger group here this season

I do believe this staff will be very aggressive and will continue to make the players feel that they have to earn their positions

I think this franchise is on the right track

I don't think that McNabb is here but I sure hope these guys have a QB in mind not named Beck or Grossman

We not only lack a QB, but arguably the most important position in a 3-4: NT. There is no one on our roster who has convinced me he can start in the NFL at this time.

yupchagee wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

1niksder wrote:

aswas71788 wrote:The problem is that there is no one out there in free agancy that is a significant upgrade over Grossman and/or Beck. Even those that are an upgrade seem to be already committed somewhere, it is just a matter of the lockout ending. No other team is going to trade the Redskins (or any other team) a franchise quarterback unless the asking price is extraordinarly outragious. McNabb was a failure. I think the Eagles knew he was done so they took what they could get. The Redskins bit!

If the Redskins want a franchise quarterback, they are going to have to draft and develop one. Moving up in the draft to get a first or second draft spot is going to cost, big time. Unless, of course, the Redskins are going to tank this season to get the first pick in the next year.

I think McNabb to the Viking rumors are still out there for a reason, I don't think Brigham Young hands out degrees to idiots that just run their mouth, so John Beck got the OK to say what he's saying from somewhere (if you think coaches and players aren't talking,than Canes wants to talk to you about a bridge... that I should get a finders fee for). Grossman might be back but if they don't trade for Orton or grab Alex Smith than it'll mire than likely be Beck. If he pays off great if not, it's a one year deal anyway. We won't be bad enough for the "suck for Luck" camp but next year's draft class of QBs are WAY better than what was offered this year.

I'm hoping for "Suck and Luck" but I agree that we are unlikely to get the #2 overall pick (Carolina has #1 locked up again) to grab Luck. But with Landry Jones and Matt Barkley also likely available, we should be in a good position to grab one of them, or only have to move up a spot or two, to draft one of them.

People are saying the same things about Luck this year that they were saying about Locker last year. Things can change in a hurry.

The Locker and Luck situations aren't really comparable in any way. Luck is a much better prospect than Locker and doesn't have the question marks (i.e., accuracy) surrounding his game that Locker did. Luck would have to completely tank or get seriously injured to not be a top 3 pick.

VRIEL1 wrote:The first and major problem is the drilled in idea that this team is one player/one year away from the play offs, AND the fans expectations that this team be fixed in one or two years.

Face the facts folks, if this was a good team with good management and we only changed the coaching staff this team could turn around quickly like Green Bay did, but the Skins are not that fortunate. They have had poor management, poor coaching, and poor player aquasition. No way should anyone be EXPECTING a one year fix after 10 years of ruining the team.

Our best hope is everyone from the ownership down stays patient and allows Allen and MS to fix this mess which might take the usual 3-4 years to fix.

I agree with what you are saying that this won't be a quick turnaround because we needed more than just a coaching change. Our roster in Mike's first year had a big turnover and there will be a big turnover from last year. Since you mentioned at the Packers as an example of a quick turn around, let's look at the Packers turnaround.

2005 - Packers finish 4-12 but they had been consistent playoff participants the past 4 years.
2006 - Mike McCarthy's first year, the Pack starts out 4-8 and finishes 8-8
2007 13-3
2008 6 -10 - Aaron Rogers first year as a starter. Mike Carthy says things that happened in year one resurfaced - fires some assistants
2009 11-5 Packers switch to 3-4 defense for the 2009 season. Dom Capers is a 3-4 guru. Kampman and Cullen Jenkins were great fits. Raji drafted to play NT for 2009 season - Conclusion had the personnel to make the switch
2010 10-6 Super Bowl - devastated by injuries but still manage to win a Super Bowl

My conclusion - Packers front office is the key to success when they had the letdown in 2008. Mike Mcarthy was supported all the way with the changes that he made with coaches and scheme. The made the move to go with Rogers and stuck with him even though the team finished with a losing record. Colts, Steelers and Pats all have strong front offices which is an important ingredient to being a consistent winner.

Skins
2009 - 4-12
2010 -6-10 up and down season, but I see the glass as half full with the performance of the reserves in the last three games - a narrow loss to archrival Dallas on in Dallas, A win over a play-off contending team in Jax and a best showing against the Giants since 2007 - Giants being a contending play-off team. These three games reinforce what Mike is preaching, that work ethic guys should be the core of what this team is about about - not overpaid "superstars."
2011 - The McNabb trade clearly is a setback. Instead of having a vet QB in his second year of a new offense, Skins are left with two journeyman QB's one that showed flashes in this Offense and one who has jouneyed but not played. The draft was considered by most critics a success. Free agency has yet to be played in full. High marks for signing Atogwe and for letting high priced needs - Shawn Rodgers NT walk away. Still in transistion - roster will turnover. My synopsis, the Redskins are building a core of high motor, work ethic guys and thus will be competitive. To win with Grossman, he must be protected and have a running game. Grossman cannot beat you with his legs. Beck has the mobility to move in the pocket but is unproven. If he is a good fit for Kyle's Offense, he will surprise a lot of folks except Mike Shanahan. Beck is proving to be a leader in the offseason. Skins will win with grit and precison play, but will be short on talent at some positions. Before a good pre camp prediction can be made, free agency most play out. It will be hard to build a cohesive unit with so little time for rookies and free agents and any surprise undrafted free agents to gel. The Skins record will not be the most important issue. The most important issue will be does this team have an identiy and is it moving in the right direction. The will be a better team next year and will seek to fill in the major pieces like QB after the 2011 season - 2012 draft and free agency.
2012 - serious talk about play off for this team. Will they dip like the Packers did the third year? Will the play the QB drafted in 2012 or will Beck prove to be the QB for a few more year.

To stay with the thread. At best for Grossman, he is a stop gap. He is a poor decision maker and cannot beat you with his feet which a staple of this offense - see Matt Schuab - Houston Texans. Beck is the best bet to be that good all around QB for now. Can we win with them? If we mean winning record - Yes, but it also depends on the defense and O line (before you say no brainer about the O line - See Ben R. at Pittsburgh and check out their O line).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_McCar ... n_football)

Another comparison besides the Pack:


Tampa Bay Bucccaneers under Gruden

TB 2002 12 4 0 .750 1st in NFC South 3 0 1.000 Won Super Bowl XXXVII
TB 2003 7 9 0 .438 3rd in NFC South - - - -
TB 2004 5 11 0 .312 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2005 11 5 0 .688 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to Washington Redskins in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2006 4 12 0 .250 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2007 9 7 0 .563 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to New York Giants in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2008 9 7 0 .563 3rd in NFC South - - -

Tampa Bay under Morris

TB 2009 3 13 0 .188 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2010 10 6 0 .625 3rd in NFC South


Tampa Bay's front office wasn't exactly great (Yes, Bruce was there too but we know his role here has little to do with aquiring players).
That cleaned house for 2009 drafted well and surprised folks with a one season turnaround and just missed the play-offs, but it is too early to tell if this is not one of those flukes or the the team will be a consistent winner. Coming into 2010, folks said that the Bucs were weak at QB. Josh Freeman surprised folks.

My point is, at this point, pre free agency, we do not know what we have yet. Some folks have chosen to be pessimistic - can't blame them with what they have seen over the years here. Some folks choose to be patient and wait and see. Some folks like me say, If Tampa Bay can produce a 10-6 season this year, a team that we walked up and down the field on missed two field goals and a botched extra point, then there is no reason why it cannot happen this year with solid football play and coaching - two things that we didn't have last year (Yes, Mike made mistakes and having an OC not in sync with his QB - we all saw the sideline TV shots so we know it is true - did not help coaching), but I trust we will have it this year - not because I have blind faith because Mike is a proven winner and has taken steps this off season that show he is on the right track and I believe that he can get the job done and that job isn't done with one 10-6 season but a consistent winner in the mode of Green Bay, Pitt, Indy and NE.

Red_One43 wrote:

VRIEL1 wrote:The first and major problem is the drilled in idea that this team is one player/one year away from the play offs, AND the fans expectations that this team be fixed in one or two years.

Face the facts folks, if this was a good team with good management and we only changed the coaching staff this team could turn around quickly like Green Bay did, but the Skins are not that fortunate. They have had poor management, poor coaching, and poor player aquasition. No way should anyone be EXPECTING a one year fix after 10 years of ruining the team.

Our best hope is everyone from the ownership down stays patient and allows Allen and MS to fix this mess which might take the usual 3-4 years to fix.

I agree with what you are saying that this won't be a quick turnaround because we needed more than just a coaching change. Our roster in Mike's first year had a big turnover and there will be a big turnover from last year. Since you mentioned at the Packers as an example of a quick turn around, let's look at the Packers turnaround.

2005 - Packers finish 4-12 but they had been consistent playoff participants the past 4 years.
2006 - Mike McCarthy's first year, the Pack starts out 4-8 and finishes 8-8
2007 13-3
2008 6 -10 - Aaron Rogers first year as a starter. Mike Carthy says things that happened in year one resurfaced - fires some assistants
2009 11-5 Packers switch to 3-4 defense for the 2009 season. Dom Capers is a 3-4 guru. Kampman and Cullen Jenkins were great fits. Raji drafted to play NT for 2009 season - Conclusion had the personnel to make the switch
2010 10-6 Super Bowl - devastated by injuries but still manage to win a Super Bowl

My conclusion - Packers front office is the key to success when they had the letdown in 2008. Mike Mcarthy was supported all the way with the changes that he made with coaches and scheme. The made the move to go with Rogers and stuck with him even though the team finished with a losing record. Colts, Steelers and Pats all have strong front offices which is an important ingredient to being a consistent winner.

Skins
2009 - 4-12
2010 -6-10 up and down season, but I see the glass as half full with the performance of the reserves in the last three games - a narrow loss to archrival Dallas on in Dallas, A win over a play-off contending team in Jax and a best showing against the Giants since 2007 - Giants being a contending play-off team. These three games reinforce what Mike is preaching, that work ethic guys should be the core of what this team is about about - not overpaid "superstars."
2011 - The McNabb trade clearly is a setback. Instead of having a vet QB in his second year of a new offense, Skins are left with two journeyman QB's one that showed flashes in this Offense and one who has jouneyed but not played. The draft was considered by most critics a success. Free agency has yet to be played in full. High marks for signing Atogwe and for letting high priced needs - Shawn Rodgers NT walk away. Still in transistion - roster will turnover. My synopsis, the Redskins are building a core of high motor, work ethic guys and thus will be competitive. To win with Grossman, he must be protected and have a running game. Grossman cannot beat you with his legs. Beck has the mobility to move in the pocket but is unproven. If he is a good fit for Kyle's Offense, he will surprise a lot of folks except Mike Shanahan. Beck is proving to be a leader in the offseason. Skins will win with grit and precison play, but will be short on talent at some positions. Before a good pre camp prediction can be made, free agency most play out. It will be hard to build a cohesive unit with so little time for rookies and free agents and any surprise undrafted free agents to gel. The Skins record will not be the most important issue. The most important issue will be does this team have an identiy and is it moving in the right direction. The will be a better team next year and will seek to fill in the major pieces like QB after the 2011 season - 2012 draft and free agency.
2012 - serious talk about play off for this team. Will they dip like the Packers did the third year? Will the play the QB drafted in 2012 or will Beck prove to be the QB for a few more year.

To stay with the thread. At best for Grossman, he is a stop gap. He is a poor decision maker and cannot beat you with his feet which a staple of this offense - see Matt Schuab - Houston Texans. Beck is the best bet to be that good all around QB for now. Can we win with them? If we mean winning record - Yes, but it also depends on the defense and O line (before you say no brainer about the O line - See Ben R. at Pittsburgh and check out their O line).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_McCar ... n_football)

Another comparison besides the Pack:


Tampa Bay Bucccaneers under Gruden

TB 2002 12 4 0 .750 1st in NFC South 3 0 1.000 Won Super Bowl XXXVII
TB 2003 7 9 0 .438 3rd in NFC South - - - -
TB 2004 5 11 0 .312 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2005 11 5 0 .688 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to Washington Redskins in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2006 4 12 0 .250 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2007 9 7 0 .563 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to New York Giants in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2008 9 7 0 .563 3rd in NFC South - - -

Tampa Bay under Morris

TB 2009 3 13 0 .188 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2010 10 6 0 .625 3rd in NFC South


Tampa Bay's front office wasn't exactly great (Yes, Bruce was there too but we know his role here has little to do with aquiring players).
That cleaned house for 2009 drafted well and surprised folks with a one season turnaround and just missed the play-offs, but it is too early to tell if this is not one of those flukes or the the team will be a consistent winner. Coming into 2010, folks said that the Bucs were weak at QB. Josh Freeman surprised folks.

My point is, at this point, pre free agency, we do not know what we have yet. Some folks have chosen to be pessimistic - can't blame them with what they have seen over the years here. Some folks choose to be patient and wait and see. Some folks like me say, If Tampa Bay can produce a 10-6 season this year, a team that we walked up and down the field on missed two field goals and a botched extra point, then there is no reason why it cannot happen this year with solid football play and coaching - two things that we didn't have last year (Yes, Mike made mistakes and having an OC not in sync with his QB - we all saw the sideline TV shots so we know it is true - did not help coaching), but I trust we will have it this year - not because I have blind faith because Mike is a proven winner and has taken steps this off season that show he is on the right track and I believe that he can get the job done and that job isn't done with one 10-6 season but a consistent winner in the mode of Green Bay, Pitt, Indy and NE.

I tend to value quality picks in the draft and dismiss the notion that late round picks will help much. Year after year they become camp fodder, but we still get excited when they're are stockpiled. Even when one of them makes it, he's usually an average player at best. To pick up Banks and AA last year was incredible--lighning sometimes does strike when you need a bon fire-- but remember neither was a late-round pick. I note that most late-round successes people like to cite are players of another era, like Johnny Unitas. I think that scouting is thorough these days and players are likely to be correctly evaluated, unlike in the past. If a player these day is projected as a late-round pick, he's not very often an over-looked player, but rather a player with serious deficiencies in relation to
physical gifts.

My point becomes: if we're going to have an adequate OL anytime soon, it will be because we'll draft a number of OL in the first three rounds and spend big bucks for FA's. It's simply not true that we can win with a bunch of guys with modest talent (and don't cost much) who are going to get fired up and work hard. Virtually everyone in the NFL gets fired up on a regular basis and works hard.

It's also true that its unlikely for a team in football at any level to win without superstars. Think about it. Those who think we don't need to invest in a few, gamble or not, are just not looking at reality. In football games, average players on opposite sides usually cancel each other out and the outstanding players win or lose the games. I'm sorry to say such a thing. It goes against the grain, but it's the truth.

Our trouble is, unfortunately, not just lack of superstars, but also coming up with average players. Stats show that the only offensive lineman we have that holds his own as a blocker is Montgomery.

crazyhorse1 wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

VRIEL1 wrote:The first and major problem is the drilled in idea that this team is one player/one year away from the play offs, AND the fans expectations that this team be fixed in one or two years.

Face the facts folks, if this was a good team with good management and we only changed the coaching staff this team could turn around quickly like Green Bay did, but the Skins are not that fortunate. They have had poor management, poor coaching, and poor player aquasition. No way should anyone be EXPECTING a one year fix after 10 years of ruining the team.

Our best hope is everyone from the ownership down stays patient and allows Allen and MS to fix this mess which might take the usual 3-4 years to fix.

I agree with what you are saying that this won't be a quick turnaround because we needed more than just a coaching change. Our roster in Mike's first year had a big turnover and there will be a big turnover from last year. Since you mentioned at the Packers as an example of a quick turn around, let's look at the Packers turnaround.

2005 - Packers finish 4-12 but they had been consistent playoff participants the past 4 years.
2006 - Mike McCarthy's first year, the Pack starts out 4-8 and finishes 8-8
2007 13-3
2008 6 -10 - Aaron Rogers first year as a starter. Mike Carthy says things that happened in year one resurfaced - fires some assistants
2009 11-5 Packers switch to 3-4 defense for the 2009 season. Dom Capers is a 3-4 guru. Kampman and Cullen Jenkins were great fits. Raji drafted to play NT for 2009 season - Conclusion had the personnel to make the switch
2010 10-6 Super Bowl - devastated by injuries but still manage to win a Super Bowl

My conclusion - Packers front office is the key to success when they had the letdown in 2008. Mike Mcarthy was supported all the way with the changes that he made with coaches and scheme. The made the move to go with Rogers and stuck with him even though the team finished with a losing record. Colts, Steelers and Pats all have strong front offices which is an important ingredient to being a consistent winner.

Skins
2009 - 4-12
2010 -6-10 up and down season, but I see the glass as half full with the performance of the reserves in the last three games - a narrow loss to archrival Dallas on in Dallas, A win over a play-off contending team in Jax and a best showing against the Giants since 2007 - Giants being a contending play-off team. These three games reinforce what Mike is preaching, that work ethic guys should be the core of what this team is about about - not overpaid "superstars."
2011 - The McNabb trade clearly is a setback. Instead of having a vet QB in his second year of a new offense, Skins are left with two journeyman QB's one that showed flashes in this Offense and one who has jouneyed but not played. The draft was considered by most critics a success. Free agency has yet to be played in full. High marks for signing Atogwe and for letting high priced needs - Shawn Rodgers NT walk away. Still in transistion - roster will turnover. My synopsis, the Redskins are building a core of high motor, work ethic guys and thus will be competitive. To win with Grossman, he must be protected and have a running game. Grossman cannot beat you with his legs. Beck has the mobility to move in the pocket but is unproven. If he is a good fit for Kyle's Offense, he will surprise a lot of folks except Mike Shanahan. Beck is proving to be a leader in the offseason. Skins will win with grit and precison play, but will be short on talent at some positions. Before a good pre camp prediction can be made, free agency most play out. It will be hard to build a cohesive unit with so little time for rookies and free agents and any surprise undrafted free agents to gel. The Skins record will not be the most important issue. The most important issue will be does this team have an identiy and is it moving in the right direction. The will be a better team next year and will seek to fill in the major pieces like QB after the 2011 season - 2012 draft and free agency.
2012 - serious talk about play off for this team. Will they dip like the Packers did the third year? Will the play the QB drafted in 2012 or will Beck prove to be the QB for a few more year.

To stay with the thread. At best for Grossman, he is a stop gap. He is a poor decision maker and cannot beat you with his feet which a staple of this offense - see Matt Schuab - Houston Texans. Beck is the best bet to be that good all around QB for now. Can we win with them? If we mean winning record - Yes, but it also depends on the defense and O line (before you say no brainer about the O line - See Ben R. at Pittsburgh and check out their O line).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_McCar ... n_football)

Another comparison besides the Pack:


Tampa Bay Bucccaneers under Gruden

TB 2002 12 4 0 .750 1st in NFC South 3 0 1.000 Won Super Bowl XXXVII
TB 2003 7 9 0 .438 3rd in NFC South - - - -
TB 2004 5 11 0 .312 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2005 11 5 0 .688 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to Washington Redskins in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2006 4 12 0 .250 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2007 9 7 0 .563 1st in NFC South 0 1 .000 Lost to New York Giants in NFC Wild-Card Game.
TB 2008 9 7 0 .563 3rd in NFC South - - -

Tampa Bay under Morris

TB 2009 3 13 0 .188 4th in NFC South - - - -
TB 2010 10 6 0 .625 3rd in NFC South


Tampa Bay's front office wasn't exactly great (Yes, Bruce was there too but we know his role here has little to do with aquiring players).
That cleaned house for 2009 drafted well and surprised folks with a one season turnaround and just missed the play-offs, but it is too early to tell if this is not one of those flukes or the the team will be a consistent winner. Coming into 2010, folks said that the Bucs were weak at QB. Josh Freeman surprised folks.

My point is, at this point, pre free agency, we do not know what we have yet. Some folks have chosen to be pessimistic - can't blame them with what they have seen over the years here. Some folks choose to be patient and wait and see. Some folks like me say, If Tampa Bay can produce a 10-6 season this year, a team that we walked up and down the field on missed two field goals and a botched extra point, then there is no reason why it cannot happen this year with solid football play and coaching - two things that we didn't have last year (Yes, Mike made mistakes and having an OC not in sync with his QB - we all saw the sideline TV shots so we know it is true - did not help coaching), but I trust we will have it this year - not because I have blind faith because Mike is a proven winner and has taken steps this off season that show he is on the right track and I believe that he can get the job done and that job isn't done with one 10-6 season but a consistent winner in the mode of Green Bay, Pitt, Indy and NE.

I tend to value quality picks in the draft and dismiss the notion that late round picks will help much. Year after year they become camp fodder, but we still get excited when they're are stockpiled. Even when one of them makes it, he's usually an average player at best. To pick up Banks and AA last year was incredible--lighning sometimes does strike when you need a bon fire-- but remember neither was a late-round pick. I note that most late-round successes people like to cite are players of another era, like Johnny Unitas. I think that scouting is thorough these days and players are likely to be correctly evaluated, unlike in the past. If a player these day is projected as a late-round pick, he's not very often an over-looked player, but rather a player with serious deficiencies in relation to
physical gifts.

My point becomes: if we're going to have an adequate OL anytime soon, it will be because we'll draft a number of OL in the first three rounds and spend big bucks for FA's. It's simply not true that we can win with a bunch of guys with modest talent (and don't cost much) who are going to get fired up and work hard. Virtually everyone in the NFL gets fired up on a regular basis and works hard.

It's also true that its unlikely for a team in football at any level to win without superstars. Think about it. Those who think we don't need to invest in a few, gamble or not, are just not looking at reality. In football games, average players on opposite sides usually cancel each other out and the outstanding players win or lose the games. I'm sorry to say such a thing. It goes against the grain, but it's the truth.

Our trouble is, unfortunately, not just lack of superstars, but also coming up with average players. Stats show that the only offensive lineman we have that holds his own as a blocker is Montgomery.

True, but hopefully you are not reading my posts to say we do not need to upgrade intalent. I am saying that we do. You do need some talent especially at QB - Pack, Pats, Colts, Steelers - You do need some defensive stars - see the the mentioned team again, but you don't need the highest priced guys at several positions - see the Dallas Cowboys. That is why consistant winners like the before mentioned teams don't give into contract demands of players that have a great season or two and want a huge contract.

I am saying that the Redskins will be a better team next year. If you don't believe high motor guys don't produce victories explain how Grossman and a bunch of reserves could beat a play-off contending team, Jax, on its home turf. If you claim it was a fluke, the same guys went out the next week and gave us a showing against the 9-6 Giants, still in the play off hunt, that was better than we had seen with more talented guys since 2007. Check all of our Giants games prior to this one. Look at the Dallas game, these same guys could have quit against Dallas when they were 20 points down and they darn near won the game. A dropped pass right in the hands might have been the difference. Now, I agree that rah, rah alone doesn't win a game, but add to the rah, rah, a second year in offensive and defensive schemes. Add to it, personnel who are a better fit to the schemes. Add to it a QB who has the whole season to play in sync with his OC and you have a better. Not just three games. Subtract the guys who were getting fined by Shanahan all the time (Haynesworth was never fined tough he should have been). Do you have a Super Bowl contending team? No, but you have a better team in year two with another off season and draft to fill in holes. You and I are in agreement that it doesn't happen overnight. We just differ how we see things right now.

yupchagee wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

1niksder wrote:

aswas71788 wrote:The problem is that there is no one out there in free agancy that is a significant upgrade over Grossman and/or Beck. Even those that are an upgrade seem to be already committed somewhere, it is just a matter of the lockout ending. No other team is going to trade the Redskins (or any other team) a franchise quarterback unless the asking price is extraordinarly outragious. McNabb was a failure. I think the Eagles knew he was done so they took what they could get. The Redskins bit!

If the Redskins want a franchise quarterback, they are going to have to draft and develop one. Moving up in the draft to get a first or second draft spot is going to cost, big time. Unless, of course, the Redskins are going to tank this season to get the first pick in the next year.

I think McNabb to the Viking rumors are still out there for a reason, I don't think Brigham Young hands out degrees to idiots that just run their mouth, so John Beck got the OK to say what he's saying from somewhere (if you think coaches and players aren't talking,than Canes wants to talk to you about a bridge... that I should get a finders fee for). Grossman might be back but if they don't trade for Orton or grab Alex Smith than it'll mire than likely be Beck. If he pays off great if not, it's a one year deal anyway. We won't be bad enough for the "suck for Luck" camp but next year's draft class of QBs are WAY better than what was offered this year.

I'm hoping for "Suck and Luck" but I agree that we are unlikely to get the #2 overall pick (Carolina has #1 locked up again) to grab Luck. But with Landry Jones and Matt Barkley also likely available, we should be in a good position to grab one of them, or only have to move up a spot or two, to draft one of them.

People are saying the same things about Luck this year that they were saying about Locker last year. Things can change in a hurry.

Andrew Luck was a win away from playing for the National Championship. Had his team beat Oregon it would have been Stanford in the Championship? The Stanford Oregon game was very close might I add. Jake Locker never had his team with that type of success.
I like Locker but Luck has had a better college career. Has not under achieved as Locker has. Two very different situations.

HEROHAMO wrote:

yupchagee wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

1niksder wrote:

aswas71788 wrote:The problem is that there is no one out there in free agancy that is a significant upgrade over Grossman and/or Beck. Even those that are an upgrade seem to be already committed somewhere, it is just a matter of the lockout ending. No other team is going to trade the Redskins (or any other team) a franchise quarterback unless the asking price is extraordinarly outragious. McNabb was a failure. I think the Eagles knew he was done so they took what they could get. The Redskins bit!

If the Redskins want a franchise quarterback, they are going to have to draft and develop one. Moving up in the draft to get a first or second draft spot is going to cost, big time. Unless, of course, the Redskins are going to tank this season to get the first pick in the next year.

I think McNabb to the Viking rumors are still out there for a reason, I don't think Brigham Young hands out degrees to idiots that just run their mouth, so John Beck got the OK to say what he's saying from somewhere (if you think coaches and players aren't talking,than Canes wants to talk to you about a bridge... that I should get a finders fee for). Grossman might be back but if they don't trade for Orton or grab Alex Smith than it'll mire than likely be Beck. If he pays off great if not, it's a one year deal anyway. We won't be bad enough for the "suck for Luck" camp but next year's draft class of QBs are WAY better than what was offered this year.

I'm hoping for "Suck and Luck" but I agree that we are unlikely to get the #2 overall pick (Carolina has #1 locked up again) to grab Luck. But with Landry Jones and Matt Barkley also likely available, we should be in a good position to grab one of them, or only have to move up a spot or two, to draft one of them.

People are saying the same things about Luck this year that they were saying about Locker last year. Things can change in a hurry.

Andrew Luck was a win away from playing for the National Championship. Had his team beat Oregon it would have been Stanford in the Championship? The Stanford Oregon game was very close might I add. Jake Locker never had his team with that type of success.
I like Locker but Luck has had a better college career. Has not under achieved as Locker has. Two very different situations.

Caneskins wrote

The Locker and Luck situations aren't really comparable in any way. Luck is a much better prospect than Locker and doesn't have the question marks (i.e., accuracy) surrounding his game that Locker did. Luck would have to completely tank or get seriously injured to not be a top 3 pick.

You miss my point. Every year it seems like 1 or (usually) more QB's for the following year are hyped as saviors. Frequently, it doesn't happen that way. Just saying...

Red_One43 wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:

the record is not as important this season as putting the team in a position to be able to be a playoff contender ever year from 2012 on

I am looking at putting a group of players together that consistently are in the playoffs

2011 is the first step towards that goal

Well said! This is what Mike's priority is for this season. More long range planning. We will see more tinkering from Mike such as once again turnover on the O line and for that matter turn over of personnel. As Dangelo Hall said. Mike is looking for 53 guys who are high motor, work ethic guys.

What a good idea. Some of the coaches out there are looking for low motor, night-life goof offs. Seriously though, what we also need is talent.

crazyhorse1 wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:

the record is not as important this season as putting the team in a position to be able to be a playoff contender ever year from 2012 on

I am looking at putting a group of players together that consistently are in the playoffs

2011 is the first step towards that goal

Well said! This is what Mike's priority is for this season. More long range planning. We will see more tinkering from Mike such as once again turnover on the O line and for that matter turn over of personnel. As Dangelo Hall said. Mike is looking for 53 guys who are high motor, work ethic guys.

What a good idea. Some of the coaches out there are looking for low motor, night-life goof offs. Seriously though, what we also need is talent.

Here's a player example of what I am talking about and what I believe Shanny is saying: Ryan Kerrigan vs. Robert Quinn. Obviously, both are talented. Both are D lineman. Quinn was the more athletic guy and considered to be the best prospect because of his "boom" upside. In other words Quinn was higher rated than Kerrigan. Kerrigan had the high motor, team first, and leadership reputation. Shanny picked Kerrigan.
Jenkins was not the best rated DE on the board when the Redskins picked in the second round, but he is a guy that accepted his team role and that was to free up Bowers who got all the glory. Is Jenkins talented? Of course he is. Was he the best talented DE on the board? - no- but we took him because he is high motor, team player who fit what we want to do with our defense. Niles Paul definitely wasn't the most talented WR on the board when we took him, but he is a relentless special teamer whowas asked to be the crack back specialist from the WR position. He won the starting receiver job his senior yet, but stayed on all special teams until the coach took him off. This guy is a high motor guy who will do what the coaches ask of him. I am sure that you were a Skins fan in the George Allen days and saw the Skins win some games with special teams. This guy was not brought here to be camp fodder. Each draft choice this year was carefully scouted to fill a role here. They weren't drafted to excite fans looking for the number one rated this and that. Check out the Dallas Cowboys, last year's preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl. Year end and year out for the past couple of years, it has been said that they are the most talented team in the NFL. They have won exactly the same number of play-off games as the Redskins since 2005 and that is 1. George Allen's teams were not the most talented. Joe Gibbs build his Super Bowl winners with Plan B free agents. Again, no one is saying we don't need a couple of stars on the roster. Now, should the Shanny go after free agent linemen for free agency? Yes, you and I are in agreement here. Let's say Shanny goes after Ryan Harris a ZBS guy for right Tackle and let's the more talented Jamaal Brown go. That makes sense to me because talent is not the biggest issue. It is what you ask your guys to do. Road Grader? A la Gibbs - You keep Dockery. ZBS (Dockery's weakness) - you let Dockery go and keep a lesser talent Kory L. And no nobody is looking for low motor guys -- It is just that a lot of coaches want the big splash guy and perennial winners like the Steelers, Colts and Pats let their star players go who want more money - the only ones they keep and pay are ones in keep positions that are high motor and the most talented - ie. Freeney DE, Manning, Brady, Mankins - T, Rolthlisberger, Polomalu - SS, Harrison - Rush Line Backer, Hampton NT etc. If you can get both high motor and most talented, you get him - that's something all of us can live with but you can't pay all the most talented guys either - See Steelers, Colts, Pats and Packers ( they are letting a couple of very talented guys test the free agent market). Shanny knows something about building for continuity as well.

Red_One asked what I base my 10 - 14 draft selection on. I base it on the fact that I see no real imporvements other than imn personnel attitude.

QB - same
RB - not as good, unless the drafted backs show more than expected of a
rookie back.
Receivers - same if Moss resigned, otherwise worse
OL - same
DL - same
Linebacker - same, depending on what Kerrigan does. Maybe better,
maybe worse depending on Kerrigan and FA
Defensive Backfield - same, depending on Rogers replacement
Special Teams - same
Schedule - better than last year.
Team attitude - better

Everything is now depending on the FA's, which is an unknown
right now. I see improvements but do not see earthshaking improvements. Again, everything depends on FA.

In today's NFL, the quarterback is the sparkplug that drives the team. The Redskins have no one capable of doing that (IMO). Does anyone other than Grossman or Beck really expect to see one of these two catch fire and become the next Manning, Brady or even a Flacco or Ryan? I just don't see the Redskins in a position to get Luck in the next draft without crippling the progress of the team. Luck will not be the only quarterback in the next draft and maybe not the best.