The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Irn-Bru wrote:One of the main discussions evolving from this draft was the Redskins drafting strategy in the 3rd to 7th rounds. You can put me in the camp that is a little baffled that the Redskins appeared to pass on the opportunity to grab value in the 5th round by selecting an offensive tackle—an area of need, no less!—who most analysts believed was 3rd-4th round talent.

I look at 5th-7th round picks as total gambles. You can't (and shouldn't) expect to get starters from those picks; they are developmental guys, or special teams guys.

Just as an aside, I looked at OT drafted in the 2005 and 2006 drafts, to see how many of them are starters. Out of the 8 OTs drafted in 2005 and 2006, not one is a regular starter for their team. Zero.

PulpExposure wrote:

brad7686 wrote:there were tackles available in that round that were better than Stephon Heyer. I can definitely guarantee that.

Who?

He was discussing two at the time of the pick. Meredith was one, and I can't remember the other.

I think that Jansen will be "given" the job but I also have faith that Bugel (and Zorn) will have the best players playing despite their previous reputations - my concern is not so much that some of the back-ups might be better than they have shown and that Dockery will come back here and be much better than he showed last year. My concern is that the line has to be so much better than they were last year and that we need to get so many guys playing at a level that I think is bordering on a miraculous upgrade to what we have seen.

Happily we still have all of next year's picks and hopefully these guys not only keep them but try and get another first rounder and another second round pick for next year's draft because we will be needing some major players and soon. Having 5 players from the top 100 would be helpful.

PulpExposure wrote:I look at 5th-7th round picks as total gambles. You can't (and shouldn't) expect to get starters from those picks; they are developmental guys, or special teams guys.

According to at least some analysts the OT's that were available had the talent of 3rd-4th round picks, but for a number of reasons they had simply fallen.

Just as an aside, I looked at OT drafted in the 2005 and 2006 drafts, to see how many of them are starters. Out of the 8 OTs drafted in 2005 and 2006, not one is a regular starter for their team. Zero.

I assume you mean those drafted in the 5th to 7th rounds, in which case you are right that very few have stuck. However, several are regular starters, it's just that all but one have been moved to the interior of the line. San Diego appears to have started Jeromey Clary at tackle all of last year after drafting him in the 6th round of 2006.

I'm not going to argue against the rarity of a typical 5th-7th rounder stepping in and starting. At the same time, Heyer wasn't even drafted but made some starts in his rookie season (which, for an UDFA, were impressive).

It just seems to me that there may have been value that we overlooked because the FO may not think the OL is a pressing need.

because the skins front office has no idea what the hell they are doing

Irn-Bru wrote:I assume you mean those drafted in the 5th to 7th rounds, in which case you are right that very few have stuck. However, several are regular starters, it's just that all but one have been moved to the interior of the line. San Diego appears to have started Jeromey Clary at tackle all of last year after drafting him in the 6th round of 2006.

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

He was discussing two at the time of the pick. Meredith was one, and I can't remember the other.

But how can he say, so definitively, that they are better than Heyer? Heyer has at least played, and started, in the NFL. Right now, every NFL draft choice, is a guess on how they'll succeed...and that prediction gets more murky the later they get picked.

Meredith did hold a high draft grade...but the Redskins weren't the only ones who passed on him, multiple times. I wonder why he dropped so far?

The Redskins weren't the only team to pass on Meredith again and again. When he was finally selected it was by the packers who passed him over in the 4th or 5th round to select a different offensive tackle. After the 3rd round 7 other tackles were selected before Meredith. IMO there must have been something NFL teams didn't like about him.

The Redskins followed pretty much the same approach as last year. Safe picks early (Orakpo and Barnes should be good starters, and Barnes already looks like a good nickle corner) and then low risk, high reward guys later on.

The Cowboys, Patriots and other teams draft players that baffle the drafniks over and over again and everyone goes "Well, they know what they're doing!" If the Redskins draft someone who isn't on Mel Kiper's top picks remaining then we scratch our heads and say Vinny's an idiot.

Every player they drafted late like last year either had an injury, was from a small school or had minor red flags in the character department. Chris Horton was a great pick last season and a lot of teams shied away from him because he suffered a nearly career ending wrist injury and he's never expected to get full range of movement there. Chad Rinehart and Kareem Moore didn't see the field much (or at all) but they are considered good prospects in the NFL who fell under the radar because they are from small schools. People didn't think Colt Brennan was worth a pick and even though it's yet to be seen if he can play in the NFL he's considered one of the better prospects in the league (and possibly the best late round QB from the draft.)

I like the way the Redskins are doing business. I think this is a smart way to draft, maybe they just didn't see what they like in offensive linemen late. Maybe they felt comfortable with the line they have (entirely possible since it's actually pretty good, and healthy now.) Maybe they thought they would be able to find a good free agent or draft pick next season (maybe it's a stronger class?)

Whatever their motivations were I like their draft approach. You can't say for sure if they "reached" on someone, that's what Kiper said about Michael Mitchell of the Raiders and two other teams were going to take him that early. The Skins saw their guy and took him because they probably had info that he wouldn't be available.

Late in the draft the Redskins drafted some boom or bust guys that have minor problems the Redskins think are correctable. Probably only one or two will actually work out, but that would actually make this draft a success.

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

Oh wow, you found a few. I guess the exception proves the rule.

PulpExposure wrote:But how can he say, so definitively, that they are better than Heyer? Heyer has at least played, and started, in the NFL. Right now, every NFL draft choice, is a guess on how they'll succeed...and that prediction gets more murky the later they get picked.

Exactly... and you can't. We know Brad likes to make loads of guarantess, but...

Heyer is a far better player than some are admitting or recognizing...

Heyer is a prime candidate to step in for Jansen. If not for the shoulder injury, he likely would have started all last season at right tackle. His versatility is a key--he can play both tackle spots if needed.

Stephon Heyer started five games in 2007 and seven last year, alternating at left and right tackle. In his third year, the former University of Maryland lineman could have a chance to cement a starting job.

Heyer held perennial Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan without a sack in a 22-10 win over the New York Giants (12/16).

It was thought Heyer accomplished that last year, when he opened the season as the starter at right tackle, but a shoulder injury sidelined him until midseason.

“Stephon can be as good as he wants to be,” Bugel said. “Randy Thomas and Chris Samuels have taken him under their wing and really worked him hard. His offseasons are critical because he grew up so fast as a young man he outgrew his body.

“Hopefully he can go through a season without having injuries. That’s the thing he hasn’t been able to conquer. Hopefully the third year is the charm for him because he has a great amount of talent.”

Coaches are high on Devin Clark, a promising young tackle. He seems poised to compete for a backup job in 2009.

SkinsFreak wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

Oh wow, you found a few. I guess the exception proves the rule.

PulpExposure wrote:But how can he say, so definitively, that they are better than Heyer? Heyer has at least played, and started, in the NFL. Right now, every NFL draft choice, is a guess on how they'll succeed...and that prediction gets more murky the later they get picked.

Exactly... and you can't. We know Brad likes to make loads of guarantess, but...

Heyer is a far better player than some are admitting or recognizing...

Heyer is a prime candidate to step in for Jansen. If not for the shoulder injury, he likely would have started all last season at right tackle. His versatility is a key--he can play both tackle spots if needed.

Stephon Heyer started five games in 2007 and seven last year, alternating at left and right tackle. In his third year, the former University of Maryland lineman could have a chance to cement a starting job.

Heyer held perennial Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan without a sack in a 22-10 win over the New York Giants (12/16).

It was thought Heyer accomplished that last year, when he opened the season as the starter at right tackle, but a shoulder injury sidelined him until midseason.

“Stephon can be as good as he wants to be,” Bugel said. “Randy Thomas and Chris Samuels have taken him under their wing and really worked him hard. His offseasons are critical because he grew up so fast as a young man he outgrew his body.

“Hopefully he can go through a season without having injuries. That’s the thing he hasn’t been able to conquer. Hopefully the third year is the charm for him because he has a great amount of talent.”

Coaches are high on Devin Clark, a promising young tackle. He seems poised to compete for a backup job in 2009.

One game against Strahan CLEARLY proves how great Heyer is. It's a travesty that he didn't make the Pro Bowl last year, what with how well our oline protected JC. But it's ok, we have 450 pound Mike Williams coming to the rescue.

Heyer had A LOT of help from the backs and TEs. It's funny how that little tidbit is always left out.

They signed Mike Williams in FA on Friday. I guess they felt they addressed the OL needs already.

CanesSkins26 wrote:One game against Strahan CLEARLY proves how great Heyer is. It's a travesty that he didn't make the Pro Bowl last year, what with how well our oline protected JC. But it's ok, we have 450 pound Mike Williams coming to the rescue.

I didn't say he was great... I said far better than some recognize.

But interestingly, since you're the o-line talent evaluation expert, perhaps you should be coaching the o-line instead of Joe Bugal. Actually, judging from your posts, you should be the Owner/GM/Director Of Player Personnel/Head Coach/Offensive Coordinator/Defensive Coordinator.

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

We were specifically talking about tackles, not centers or guards. Charlie Johnson played left guard for the Colts last season.

VetSkinsFan wrote:Heyer had A LOT of help from the backs and TEs. It's funny how that little tidbit is always left out.

c'mon Vet! It's not nice to nitpick like that

We are a bunch of fans that likes to look only on the bright side and who knows what might happen - "even the blind squirrel ... " well, that is how it goes in the forest and why can't these guys get lucky here too?

I am hopeful and have been a loyal "team" supporter but I am now starting to see what some here have been espousing for a while - we are who we are and we are not likely to change much in the near future if we have not learned anything in the last seven years plus

I am hoping that things can be a lot better but I am really concerned that we just refuse to understand that we are not close and need to make some major changes in order to become a decent franchise again - this minor adjustment and thinking is frustrating - like, adding a big time QB like Cutler or getting Sanchez might make everything right on offense - we need a lot of help here and these bozos do not seem to want to do what is needed.

brad7686 wrote:

Countertrey wrote:

So why not bring them in as free agents and draft higher rated players? It makes no sense.

Classic. So, you even have access to the Redskins draft board? How cool is that. So, who did they have rated higher?

Its not about who they had rated higher. Obviously, they had those goons rated pretty high. Its about the fact that no one else would have drafted certain players they did. So they can bring them in as free agents, and take players that actually should be drafted.

That's a totally ridiculous statement.

PulpExposure wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

We were specifically talking about tackles, not centers or guards. Charlie Johnson played left guard for the Colts last season.

No, he played BOTH guard and tackle for the Colts last season. From the Colts website...

Started 16 games, 12 at LG and four at LT

CanesSkins26 wrote:

PulpExposure wrote:

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

We were specifically talking about tackles, not centers or guards. Charlie Johnson played left guard for the Colts last season.

No, he played BOTH guard and tackle for the Colts last season. From the Colts website...

Started 16 games, 12 at LG and four at LT

So, you'd clearly call him a tackle, then, because he started only 2/3 of the season at LG, and 1/3 of the season at LT? And you wouldn't say he was just the emergency replacement for an injured (read real) starter, Tony Ugoh?

I just took some time to run through starters, according to pro-football-reference.com, at LT and RT for each team last season.

Out of 64 possible starters, starting tackles were drafted in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds a total of 52 times. Nearly half were drafted in the 1st round, and only 15 of those 52 were drafted in rounds 3 and 4.

A total of 12 2008 starting tackles were drafted in the 5th, 6th, 7th rounds, or were undrafted. Interestingly, 5 of those 12 were undrafted free agents (including Jason Peters, Barry Sims (of the Niners...what a disaster), and Stephon Heyer).

That leaves us with a total of 7 players drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. Let's look at them.

5th round were Jared Gaither of the Ravens, Tony Pashos of the Jaguars, and David Diehl of the Giants. Gaither's replacement was just drafted in Michael Oher, and Pashos' eventual RT replacement was drafted in Britton (or immediately, in Monroe). That leaves David Diehl as a solid choice.

There was 1 starting tackle drafted in the 6th round; Clary, as noted above.

There were 3 starting tackles drafted in the 7th round: Kevin Schaffer (who was not kept by the Browns), Mark Tauscher (who has been cut by Green Bay), and Artis Hicks (the Vikes just drafted his replacement in Phil Loadholt).

Of these 7 guys, you can say there has been 1 clear winner (Diehl), and a bunch of guys who have either been cut, or are in the process of being replaced (by high round draft choices).

I'd say, looking at that history, you're aiming for the moon if you think that you can pick up a starting tackle in rounds 5-7.

And interestingly, while you brought up New England, and how they have UFA and low-round draft choices on their offensive line...their two starting tackles were 2nd and 3rd round draft picks.

CanesSkins26 wrote:

No, I looked at just the 5th round because it took long enough just to evaluate those players alone. I ran out of time for the 6th and 7th. But your own post just reinforced my thoughts; you can point to one guy. One! It's like hitting the lottery.

It's definitely more than one. For example, Charlie Johnson (6th rounder in 06) started 16 games for the Colts last season. The Colts also have an undrafted player, Jeff Saturday, starting for them. The Patriots also have one 5th round player and one undrafted free agent as starters on their o-line.

Right, I included these guys (not the undrafted ones) but some of them have changed positions. Charlie Johnson is said by PFR to have started at guard, not tackle.

The fact that Meredith was seen to be 3rd round talent by the top analysts is the 'wild card' in this discussion, IMO. Maybe you don't take that seriously, maybe you do. . .whichever way you lean will have a big impact on how you evaluate the Redskins' strategy.

Irn-Bru wrote:The fact that Meredith was seen to be 3rd round talent by the top analysts is the 'wild card' in this discussion, IMO. Maybe you don't take that seriously, maybe you do. . .whichever way you lean will have a big impact on how you evaluate the Redskins' strategy.

Or every team's strategy, since no team picked him until the 5th round?

Irn-Bru wrote:The fact that Meredith was seen to be 3rd round talent by the top analysts is the 'wild card' in this discussion, IMO. Maybe you don't take that seriously, maybe you do. . .whichever way you lean will have a big impact on how you evaluate the Redskins' strategy.

Yeah, because every scout values different attributes for different positions. Who knows what the "experts" were basing this assessment of Meredith on.

Irn-Bru wrote:The fact that Meredith was seen to be 3rd round talent by the top analysts is the 'wild card' in this discussion, IMO. Maybe you don't take that seriously, maybe you do. . .whichever way you lean will have a big impact on how you evaluate the Redskins' strategy.

Not only that, but look who we took instead, Cody Glenn. McShay called it our worst pick of the draft and it was difficult to even find a scouting report on the guy. I doubt anyone would've been surprised if Glenn hadn't even gotten drafted.

Mike Williams is a former #4 overall pick. I'm guessing they figure to go into this season with what we already have, and address the OL in future drafts, when we have more picks and a deeper field from which to choose.