Kiper on the Skins

[Countertrey]

If I were the non-existent GM of the Skins, I would have 2 huge priorities in Free Agency:

1) Alan Faneca ( Pete Kendall is a good LG, however, he is only under a 2 year contract, and he is 34 years old. He could extend his shelf life and also serve as a valuable backup on our O-line)

2) Jared Allen ( He has been a bruising, high motor pass rusher, who at 6-6 and 270 lbs has been imposing against the run. I like the way he plays the game, and hopefully the Skins do too).

To round out the free agent period, I would opt for a Defensive Back such as Randal Gay.


In the Draft, I would target potential impact players in the first round such as:

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

If any of these players are available at 21, I would be pleased with selecting them.

I agree with most of your assessment... I get worried about taking a WR high in the draft... it is the most difficult position to evaluate talent for... and the Redskins traditionally do a terrible job with wideouts in the first round...

[chiefhog44]

I agree with Kiper....We should look at Calais Campbell (Miami) 6-8/280lbs DE or Derek Harvey 6-4/262 (Florida) George Selvie (South Florida) 6-4/245lbs.

Campbell is a physical beast....Selvie has an unreal motor....and Harvey is actually from Greenbelt Maryland.

We should look for s wide reciever with our second pick....

And people saying we don't need Springs? LOL

Darrell Green a hard hitter? LMFAO

Correct with your first pick...wrong on your second.

3rd round is where you want to get a WR. Skins history tells you that. We have had such bad luck with WR's in the 1st and 2nd. There's always a couple WR's in the 3rd round of each draft that are pretty good. Scouting would help though. Let's take a look at the past 7 drafts in the 3rd round.

3 78 James Jones San Jose State Green Bay Packers
3 83 Chris Henry West Virginia Cincinnati Bengals
3 78 Bernard Berrian Fresno State Chicago Bears
3 71 Nate Burleson Nevada-Reno Minnesota Vikings
3 74 Steve Smith Utah Carolina Panthers
3 74 Kevin Curtis Utah State St. Louis Rams
3 78 Laveranues Coles Florida State New York Jets
3 80 Darrell Jackson Florida Seattle Seahawks

[CanesSkins26]

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

I agree with everyone that you mentioned on that list, but I would add two more names. Talib (cb) from Kansas and also Sweed (wr) from Texas. Sweed is roughly the same size and Kelly but is a little faster. People might be leery of drafting a receiver, but at our draft position, the best value is going to be at wr. Either Kelly or Sweed should be available and it makes more sense to draft one of them than reach for Campbell or Harvey.

If we do go with a WR in the first round, names to keep in an eye on in the second round include Darrell robertson (DE) from Georgia Tech and Kentwan Balmer (DT) from UNC.

[Countertrey]

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

I agree with everyone that you mentioned on that list, but I would add two more names. Talib (cb) from Kansas and also Sweed (wr) from Texas. Sweed is roughly the same size and Kelly but is a little faster. People might be leery of drafting a receiver, but at our draft position, the best value is going to be at wr. Either Kelly or Sweed should be available and it makes more sense to draft one of them than reach for Campbell or Harvey.

If we do go with a WR in the first round, names to keep in an eye on in the second round include Darrell robertson (DE) from Georgia Tech and Kentwan Balmer (DT) from UNC.

Whom here can name the last successful Redskins 1st Round pick at Wide Receiver?



Beuler?


Beuler?


Beuler?

[skinsfan#33]

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

I agree with everyone that you mentioned on that list, but I would add two more names. Talib (cb) from Kansas and also Sweed (wr) from Texas. Sweed is roughly the same size and Kelly but is a little faster. People might be leery of drafting a receiver, but at our draft position, the best value is going to be at wr. Either Kelly or Sweed should be available and it makes more sense to draft one of them than reach for Campbell or Harvey.

If we do go with a WR in the first round, names to keep in an eye on in the second round include Darrell robertson (DE) from Georgia Tech and Kentwan Balmer (DT) from UNC.

Whom here can name the last successful Redskins 1st Round pick at Wide Receiver?



Beuler?


Beuler?


Beuler?

Desmond Horward!

Just kidding.

Art Monk!

[Countertrey]

Correct. You have to go back 28 years. I don't have any more confidence in our ability to pick wideouts in the first round than I do in Matt Millen's. The 21st pick should be used on the best availible player. If it's a DE, DT, or Safety, so much the better.

[Skinsfan55]

I think it's pretty dumb to say we should shy away from wideouts because of how SOMEONE ELSE picked wideouts 20 years ago.

Actually, it's not pretty dumb, it's totally moronic.

A team like the Redskins who are playoff ready can afford to select and groom a WR, a position generally taking about 3 years to flesh out. We have Moss and ARE so we don't have to throw a WR right into the fire, we can set them against nickle backs and linebackers for a while.

If there's no defensive lineman available (very possible) then taking Sweed makes a LOT of sense.

[CanesSkins26]

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

I agree with everyone that you mentioned on that list, but I would add two more names. Talib (cb) from Kansas and also Sweed (wr) from Texas. Sweed is roughly the same size and Kelly but is a little faster. People might be leery of drafting a receiver, but at our draft position, the best value is going to be at wr. Either Kelly or Sweed should be available and it makes more sense to draft one of them than reach for Campbell or Harvey.

If we do go with a WR in the first round, names to keep in an eye on in the second round include Darrell robertson (DE) from Georgia Tech and Kentwan Balmer (DT) from UNC.

Whom here can name the last successful Redskins 1st Round pick at Wide Receiver?



Beuler?


Beuler?


Beuler?

So because Westbrook and 50/50 were busts that means we shouldn't draft a WR in the first round? That doesn't really make very much sense.

Ramsey and Shuler were busts so should we not have drafted Campbell?

When was the last time that the Skins drafted a successful defensive lineman in the first round? Kenard Lang and Bobby Wilson didn't live up to the expectations of being first round picks so should stay away from drafting DE's and DT's?

I also think that drafting receivers in this first round isn't as hit or miss as some might suggest. I think that the Detroit Lions embarrassing themselves by drafting wide receivers over and over again makes it seem a lot more difficult than it actually is.

[CanesSkins26]

1) Kenny Phillips - S (Miami)
2) James Hardy - WR (Indiana)
3)Colais Campbel - DE (Miami)
4) Antoine Cason - CB (Arizona)
5) Malcolm Kelly -WR (Oklahoma)

I agree with everyone that you mentioned on that list, but I would add two more names. Talib (cb) from Kansas and also Sweed (wr) from Texas. Sweed is roughly the same size and Kelly but is a little faster. People might be leery of drafting a receiver, but at our draft position, the best value is going to be at wr. Either Kelly or Sweed should be available and it makes more sense to draft one of them than reach for Campbell or Harvey.

If we do go with a WR in the first round, names to keep in an eye on in the second round include Darrell robertson (DE) from Georgia Tech and Kentwan Balmer (DT) from UNC.

Whom here can name the last successful Redskins 1st Round pick at Wide Receiver?



Beuler?


Beuler?


Beuler?

So because Westbrook and 50/50 were busts that means we shouldn't draft a WR in the first round? That doesn't really make very much sense.

Ramsey and Shuler were busts so should we not have drafted Campbell?

When was the last time that the Skins drafted a successful defensive lineman in the first round? Kenard Lang and Bobby Wilson didn't live up to the expectations of being first round picks so should stay away from drafting DE's and DT's?

I also think that drafting receivers in this first round isn't as hit or miss as some might suggest. I think that the Detroit Lions embarrassing themselves by drafting wide receivers over and over again makes it seem a lot more difficult than it actually is.

[PulpExposure]

This is an article written before last years draft that I think is pretty useful in this discussion. Analyzed drafts from 1989 to 2003; you will note a position by position heading for a more detailed breakdown.

From the Study overview:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

First-Round Pro Bowl Percentages
(Percentage of players making at least one Pro Bowl)
S -- 53 percent
DT -- 40 percent
LB -- 39 percent
RB -- 36 percent
DE -- 33 percent
QB -- 33 percent
WR -- 31 percent
OL -- 26 percent
CB -- 23 percent

WR is a pretty iffy pick, it looks like.

From the WR analysis:

Conclusions
According to the numbers, wide receiver seems to be a slightly safer pick than running back, though both are risky positions. Wide receivers tend to play longer -- more a function of WR being a safer position -- than their backfield counterparts, who tend to be injured more often and burn out faster.

Based on my aforementioned prejudices, the 45 percent number seems pretty indicative of bust potential, but there were several players on the borderline. Guys like Desmond Howard and Ashley Lelie, who graded out as busts, arguably could have gone the other way, but when a club drafts a first-round wideout it is expecting a Reggie Wayne or even a Joey Galloway, not a 35-catch guy.

Still, if our numbers teach us anything, it's that a number of the can't-miss wide receivers in this year's draft will actually miss.

DE, on the other hand:

Defensive end is a popular position -- one of the most frequently called on draft day. It is also one that I think can be skewed by pre-draft workout heroics and the presence of quality defensive end teammates (see: Jay Moore and Adam Carriker, Nebraska, this season).

While not quite as safe as linebacker, defensive end is still a pretty solid choice on draft day for teams looking to improve their defense at a relatively low risk. The only thing that gives me pause about this study though, is the presence of several borderline guys who put up middling numbers and barely escaped the bust label. Maybe I was too easy on the metrics.

Just FYI. Also said LaRon Landry was the safest pick in the draft

[VetSkinsFan]

I really don't think we have the need for a 1st safety draft this year. I think we should let Doughty start this year at SS and have Landry as FS. It's a tandem that has great potential. I still think having a 4.4/40 SS is really a waste of his talents. He's got good(decent at worst) hands, loves to hit, and knows to wrap up the guys he can't blow up. This guy, without a doubt in my mind, should be the FS. Doughty looked good(decent at worst) at SS and was practicing at FS before. Give the man a chance to play, we've had a lot worse recently (hello Adam!!!)

I also believe that we have a chance with Mix. He has the guts (watch him on ST) and I think he's got a chance. Hell, if you're talking about a 3 yr grooming for a 1 day WR, why not give Mix, a guy SOMEONE liked since he's got a 3yr deal, a chance and draft somewhere else we need(Hello D-Line!!)

[Countertrey]

I think it's pretty dumb to say we should shy away from wideouts because of how SOMEONE ELSE picked wideouts 20 years ago.

Actually, it's not pretty dumb, it's totally moronic.

A team like the Redskins who are playoff ready can afford to select and groom a WR, a position generally taking about 3 years to flesh out. We have Moss and ARE so we don't have to throw a WR right into the fire, we can set them against nickle backs and linebackers for a while.

If there's no defensive lineman available (very possible) then taking Sweed makes a LOT of sense.

Well... I suppose you would know something of moronic. My post pointed out that taking 1st round wideouts was risky in general, as well, a fact borne out over many years. Of course, context has no value to you.

The FACT is the Redskins have a horrendous recent history. You may not find that convenient... but that's just how it is.

[SkinsFreak]

Both Kiper and Todd McShay of Scouts Inc. currently have us taking Limas Sweed. That's interesting, but keep in mind, those projections will change a few times before draft day.

21. Washington Redskins
Record: 9-7
Biggest needs: WR, DE, S, OT, CB
Projected pick: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Redskins' top priority this offseason is to add a playmaking receiver to the roster. There projects to be a run of wide receivers in the bottom half of the first round before the shallow talent pool dries up and if the Redskins don't get involved here they're likely to get shut out of the wide receiver market. Sweed could become one of the steals of this year's draft; he possesses top-10 talent but will no doubt be undervalued due to a wrist injury that cut short his senior season but should have no long-term affects on his pass-catching ability.

So there's not a lot of depth at WR this year.

I really don't think we have the need for a 1st safety draft this year. I think we should let Doughty start this year at SS and have Landry as FS. It's a tandem that has great potential. I still think having a 4.4/40 SS is really a waste of his talents. He's got good(decent at worst) hands, loves to hit, and knows to wrap up the guys he can't blow up. This guy, without a doubt in my mind, should be the FS. Doughty looked good(decent at worst) at SS and was practicing at FS before. Give the man a chance to play, we've had a lot worse recently (hello Adam!!!)

I completely respect your opinion, but I strongly... strongly disagree. Doughty is average at best and in my opinion, is only solid in a back-up role. The loss of Sean Taylor was huge. Landry is best at SS, not FS. LaRon is brilliant on run support and in run blitzes, and his speed makes him incredible at blitzing the QB, much like they used him at LSU. Just take a look at some videos from his days at LSU. Adding pressure on the passer the way that LL can, adds a whole new dimension to a defensive scheme.

Safety is the safest pick in the first round. We need help in our secondary. Somebody like Kenny Phillips, if even available at #21, would be hugely beneficial. He's played the corner position and is best suited for the FS position. With our lack of depth at DB, injuries to Rogers, and the unknown future of Springs, adding Phillips would be the safety net, if you will. "Phillips has the size of Sean Taylor and the speed and intelligence of Ed Reed." Phillips has a huge upside, with a little grooming, and is a safe pick.

But we do have other needs...

That said, I still believe we need a stud DE. There are many available this year, and this years class will include an unprecedented amount of underclassman declaring for the draft, and there will be quite a bit of depth at the DE position. But if DE Calais Campbell is available at #21, it would be extremely difficult to pass on him, and I'd take him over Phillips.

[SkinsFreak]

For those interested...

Sweed is 6'5 and has incredible speed for a man that size. I agree with McShay that he could be the steal of this years draft. He also could be that big possession receiver we've needed for so long. I like Mix and he seems to have some potential, although we haven't seen anything yet from him, I don't believe Mix is anywhere close to being in the same league as Sweed.

Check out some highlights

A big, fast and athletic fifth-year wide receiver who is ranked as the nation’s top senior receiver by Mel Kiper Jr. … listed as one of the Top 25 prospects for the 2008 NFL Draft by ESPN’s Scouts Inc. … a two-time All-Big 12 selection … a 2007 preseason Playboy All-American … started 39 consecutive games … recorded 124 catches (No. 6 on UT’s all-time list) for 1,915 yards (No. 5 on UT’s all-time list) and 20 TDs (No. 2 on UT’s all-time list) in 43 career games … caught a pass in 24 consecutive games to finish his career and in 40 of 43 career games … averaged 15.4 yards per catch … tallied nine career catches of 40 or more yards and 19 of at least 30 yards … averaged 33.3 yards per reception on his 20 TD catches … averaged one TD in every six receptions … started the first six games of 2007 before missing the remainder of the season with a wrist injury … tallied 19 receptions for 306 yards (16.1 ypc) and three TDs … started all 13 games in 2006 … earned first-team All-Big 12 honors … led the team with 46 catches for 801 yards (17.4 ypc) and 12 TDs (T-No. 1 on UT’s single-season list) … caught a TD pass in 10 of 13 games … started all 13 games in 2005 … named honorable mention All-Big 12 by The Associated Press … finished second on the team with 36 receptions for 545 yards and five TDs … emerged as the starter at split end midway through the 2004 season … played in 11 games and started the last seven … made 23 receptions (T-No. 3 on the UT all-time freshman list) for 263 yards … gained valuable experience working at split end as a redshirt in 2003 … an all-state hurdler who scored TDs on 31 of his 72 receptions as a prepster

[KazooSkinsFan]

Doughty is average at best and in my opinion, is only solid in a back-up role

I don't disagree with this, but you have to give him credit for stepping up and playing solid if not spectacular. Sure, I'd like to have an upgrade but I just can't see this as our biggest need. The WR is got to be #1. We really need younger up and comping offensive linemen. Then you look as Springs age and the DL. We definitely have other needs that are more pressing.

[SkinsFreak]

Doughty is average at best and in my opinion, is only solid in a back-up role

I don't disagree with this, but you have to give him credit for stepping up and playing solid if not spectacular. Sure, I'd like to have an upgrade but I just can't see this as our biggest need. The WR is got to be #1. We really need younger up and comping offensive linemen. Then you look as Springs age and the DL. We definitely have other needs that are more pressing.

I agree on all points; with regard to Doughty stepping up (although I really don't see him as a starter, sorry) needing a WR and having more pressing needs than at safety. I actually don't see us taking a safety in the 1st round, but we don't have any depth at that position, so they may look at that position in the later rounds. But at this time, I kinda do agree with Kiper and McShay, Sweed would be a great weapon for us on offense. I don't buy into the 'all 1st round WR's are busts', even though there are some examples.

Our offense has been decent at sustaining drives this year... pretty good. But on 3rd down, we always look for Moss or ey, and they get covered up pretty well. Sweed would be awesome as a possession receiver and would actually open it up guys like Moss and ey, giving JC more and better outlets on 3rd and long. Just look at the videos of Sweed and note how many first down catches he makes. At 6'5, not many DB's will be able to hang with him. We've needed a guy like that for a looooong time.

[Countertrey]

I don't buy into the 'all 1st round WR's are busts',

Sorry... you're going to have to show me where that was stated. What WAS said was that for the past 27 years, the Redskins have sucked at culling decent receivers in the first round. That is fact. I'm certain that they will eventually strike gold in the first round again... however, I cannot be faulted for not wanting to see that position pop up as the selection. Hey, call me a moron, but I'd rather see us select either a DE, or (if no great DE prospects are availible) the best availible player. If that happens to be Sweed, fine.

[SkinsFreak]

I don't buy into the 'all 1st round WR's are busts',

Sorry... you're going to have to show me where that was stated. What WAS said was that for the past 27 years, the Redskins have sucked at culling decent receivers in the first round. That is fact. I'm certain that they will eventually strike gold in the first round again... however, I cannot be faulted for not wanting to see that position pop up as the selection. Hey, call me a moron, but I'd rather see us select either a DE, or (if no great DE prospects are availible) the best availible player. If that happens to be Sweed, fine.

I agree, trey. I didn't really intend that statement to be specific only to the Skins, I meant that in general. I agree the Skins haven't had much luck over the years with 1st round WR's. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't try again.

Edit to say... we very well may get a defensive guy as our head coach. That may bode well for those, including me, that want d-line help. Although, how many years in a row now have we selected a defensive player with our 1st pick in the draft?

[VetSkinsFan]

Remember Doughty was practicing at FS most of the year, so he'd need time for SS crossover to step in. I'd like to give him a chance to start this year.

I'd seriously say we have more need at O-line/D-line/CB before safety. CR is anyone's guess after this injury, Springs is old, but still has a little in the tank, and Smoot, I thought, did well this year. If we plan to use Mix, the WR should be covered this year IMO. If not, a 2nd wideout to work with Moss is needed.

[redskins56]

I say let go of Griffin and Springs.Springs might of had a good season but hes old,injury prone.And we have Rogers and Smoot right now.We can take a 1st round prospect CB in the second round .But I like Springs so I would actually keep him.

But as for Griffin let him go.He hasn't been the pass rusher since 04-05(in 05 he didnt even pass rush enough).And hes old now and is injury prone.What I would do is what Kiper wants.And if we end up enough cap room to sign to big time guys than I would go with Hanesworth.Hes the 4th best DT out there and can pressure them,hes a huge difference maker.Montgomry has become a run stopper machine and well only get better.If we get Haynes and along with our first round DE than our D will be unstoppable.


Haynesoworth



As for a WR well I say draft or trade up to get this stud WR from Michigan.

(SUPER)Mario Mannigham 6'2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeForZxahL4

I can see what you are saying, kind of, in regard to Griffin not being as disruptive as he was during the 2005 playoff season. But that being said, I wouldn't blame him for not rushing the passer. He isn't paid to rush the passer. If you are talking about getting penetration and forcing the pocket into the backfield from up the middle than okay, but he isn't a pass-rusher.

When he's at his best he's a run-stuffing, difference-making defensive-tackle. A four or five sack season is the most you could expect out of somebody like Griffin, so I wouldn't knock him for a lack of pressure.

[SkinsJock]

I hope that this season we have a defensive line that can stop the run and pressure the passer - we need to get a lot better at that and we obviously need depth on our offensive line. Both lines are the key to any team's success.

I know our defense was not bad overall but I really want our defense to be able to pressure the passer better with the front 4 than we saw this year. I also know that that happens because you have good DBs as well as effective pass rushers - our front 4 were OK but I would like to see better pressure without using LBs and DBs.



This off-season's moves both in free agency and with our draft is going to be interesting - we do have some draft picks for a change - the challenge becomes who do we find players through free agency that we can afford and can help us now and who can we draft that will help us in the future.

There are positions (and a few special players) who will be able to play well almost immediately out of college - but most likely not at #21

We really need "starters" at DL, WR, and CB - we need depth at OL, DL and DBs - finding the "starters" with the cap situation and not giving up any draft picks is going to be interesting.

[skinsfan#33]

We really need "starters" at DL, WR, and CB - we need depth at OL, DL and DBs - finding the "starters" with the cap situation and not giving up any draft picks is going to be interesting.

I disagree on this point to some degree. We need starters at DL, OG, OLB (maybe SS or FS) and depth at CB, WR, QB.

We need a starting Left OG. Pete Kendal was going to be a backup on the gets for a reason.

OLB - Rocky may be out all next year

WR - I could go either way if we need a stater or backup. We need a possesion WR. If he is explosive enough to be a starter, then great, but mostly we need a guy to move the chains. But for gods sake don't waste your first round pick on one. (WR is statistically the most unsafe pick you can take in the first round - I wish I could find the research that the NFL did that showed that)

CB - If Springs stays we have two starters. He and Smoot. If he doesn't then we need a starter. But nickel backs are almost as important as starters and we need a starting quality CB to fill that spot.

QB - #8 will be gone (thank the gods!) and Collins maybe gone too! Either way we need some fresh blood there.

[PulpExposure]

WR - I could go either way if we need a stater or backup. We need a possesion WR. If he is explosive enough to be a starter, then great, but mostly we need a guy to move the chains. But for gods sake don't waste your first round pick on one. (WR is statistically the most unsafe pick you can take in the first round - I wish I could find the research that the NFL did that showed that)

Sigh. Did you even read 2 pages back?

This is an article written before last years draft that I think is pretty useful in this discussion. Analyzed drafts from 1989 to 2003; you will note a position by position heading for a more detailed breakdown.

From the Study overview:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

First-Round Pro Bowl Percentages
(Percentage of players making at least one Pro Bowl)
S -- 53 percent
DT -- 40 percent
LB -- 39 percent
RB -- 36 percent
DE -- 33 percent
QB -- 33 percent
WR -- 31 percent
OL -- 26 percent
CB -- 23 percent

WR is a pretty iffy pick, it looks like.

From the WR analysis:

Conclusions
According to the numbers, wide receiver seems to be a slightly safer pick than running back, though both are risky positions. Wide receivers tend to play longer -- more a function of WR being a safer position -- than their backfield counterparts, who tend to be injured more often and burn out faster.

Based on my aforementioned prejudices, the 45 percent number seems pretty indicative of bust potential, but there were several players on the borderline. Guys like Desmond Howard and Ashley Lelie, who graded out as busts, arguably could have gone the other way, but when a club drafts a first-round wideout it is expecting a Reggie Wayne or even a Joey Galloway, not a 35-catch guy.

Still, if our numbers teach us anything, it's that a number of the can't-miss wide receivers in this year's draft will actually miss.

[skinsfan#33]

WR - I could go either way if we need a stater or backup. We need a possesion WR. If he is explosive enough to be a starter, then great, but mostly we need a guy to move the chains. But for gods sake don't waste your first round pick on one. (WR is statistically the most unsafe pick you can take in the first round - I wish I could find the research that the NFL did that showed that)

Sigh. Did you even read 2 pages back?

This is an article written before last years draft that I think is pretty useful in this discussion. Analyzed drafts from 1989 to 2003; you will note a position by position heading for a more detailed breakdown.

From the Study overview:

First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent

First-Round Pro Bowl Percentages
(Percentage of players making at least one Pro Bowl)
S -- 53 percent
DT -- 40 percent
LB -- 39 percent
RB -- 36 percent
DE -- 33 percent
QB -- 33 percent
WR -- 31 percent
OL -- 26 percent
CB -- 23 percent

WR is a pretty iffy pick, it looks like.

From the WR analysis:

Conclusions
According to the numbers, wide receiver seems to be a slightly safer pick than running back, though both are risky positions. Wide receivers tend to play longer -- more a function of WR being a safer position -- than their backfield counterparts, who tend to be injured more often and burn out faster.

Based on my aforementioned prejudices, the 45 percent number seems pretty indicative of bust potential, but there were several players on the borderline. Guys like Desmond Howard and Ashley Lelie, who graded out as busts, arguably could have gone the other way, but when a club drafts a first-round wideout it is expecting a Reggie Wayne or even a Joey Galloway, not a 35-catch guy.

Still, if our numbers teach us anything, it's that a number of the can't-miss wide receivers in this year's draft will actually miss.

PulpEx,
Thanks! I must have missed that page. This one is more up to date than the one I saw a few years ago, but either way it looks like drafting a WR in the first round is a major crap shoot.

Just think about this past year - Calvin Johson was a "can't miss beyond all can't misses", "the best player in the draft".
Now did he help the Lions as much as Joe Thomas or as much as Landry helped us? How about the risky pick of Adrian Peterson? He may end up being a great WR, but he really didn't help the Lions this year.

The problem w/WRs is even when you "hit" on one does it really help your team that much? QBs and RB may be more of a risk than WRs, but when you "hit" on QB or a RB, they make a big impact on your team. A WR, not as much.

[CanesSkins26]

PulpEx,
Thanks! I must have missed that page. This one is more up to date than the one I saw a few years ago, but either way it looks like drafting a WR in the first round is a major crap shoot.

Just think about this past year - Calvin Johnson was a "can't miss beyond all can't misses", "the best player in the draft".
Now did he help the Lions as much as Joe Thomas or as much as Landry helped us? How about the risky pick of Adrian Peterson? He may end up being a great WR, but he really didn't help the Lions this year.

The problem w/WRs is even when you "hit" on one does it really help your team that much? QBs and RB may be more of a risk than WRs, but when you "hit" on QB or a RB, they make a big impact on your team. A WR, not as much.

Those numbers really don't mean all that much. Obviously some positions like cb and qb are going to be more difficult to project than others. But that doesn't mean that you stop drafting those positions. All this does is highlight the importance of good scouting and player evaluation. These numbers by themselves also don't tell the whole story. For example, qb, rb, and wr are positions that are more frequently drafted in the top 10 than S and LB. As a result those players go to worse teams or franchises, and I would be willing to bet that that has a lot to do with it as well.

Just think about this past year - Calvin Johnson was a "can't miss beyond all can't misses", "the best player in the draft".
Now did he help the Lions as much as Joe Thomas or as much as Landry helped us?

Johnson actually had a very good season for the Lions. 48 catches, 756 yards, and 4 td's. That's more td's than any of our wide receivers and more catches and yards than all of our receivers but Moss.[/code]