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Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 1:59 pm
by brad7686
Skinsfan55 wrote:brad7686 wrote:We are not great at drafting late, but we aren't really terrible either. For every Sartz there is a blades and for every palmer/ecker there is a montgomery/golston, The problem is that we give away 3rd and fourth rounders for stopgaps that make little to no difference longterm. 3rd and 4th rounders is where you can really get some of that meat where people who were injured, played in a small school, or had slight discipline problems drop to that are still potential gamechangers. The fact that they give those away for peanuts is why they are in the shape they are in.
You're saying that for every failure there's a win involved? The way you're putting it, it's like we have a 50/50 shot in late rounds, and this just isn't true.
I'm only judging second day draft picks (3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks) so here's what we have for the last 5 years:
2007:
5. Dallas Sartz- Gone
5. HB Blades- Uncertain future with the team, possible backup
6. Jordan Palmer- Gone
7. Tyler Ecker- IR, possible backup next season?
So we have maybe two players with a chance of being backups for the Redskins...
2006:
5. Anthony Montgomery- Starting defensive tackle, very good player.
6. Reed Doughty- Decent FS, probably a career backup.
6. Kedric Golston- Decent DT, looks like a career backup.
7. Kili Lefotu- Gone
7. Kevin Simon- Gone
3 guys still with the team, only one is a starter, but the other two give good depth.
2005:
4. Manuel White- Gone
5. Robert McCune- Gone
6. Jared Newberry- Gone
7. Nehemiah Broughton- Gone
Drafts like this kill a team, not a single second day pick turned out to be a decent football player.
2004:
3. Chris
ey- Star TE.
5. Mark Wilson- Gone
6. Jim Molinaro- Gone
Both guys were backups for a while and are gone.
2003:
3. Derrick Dockery- Good guard, with Buff. now.
7. Gibran Hamdan- Gone
Ol' Gibby was not a good football player, enough said.
So even if I was going to be extremely generous and give checks to every player still on the Redskins' roster (and Dockery who did turn out to be good) then we'd have 7 second day picks from the last 5 years and 11 busts.
So really it's not as if for every Sartz we have a Blades, or for every Palmer/Ecker we have some stars, we have a lot less than 50% even when you're generous (I gave Ecker and Golston as positives even when they haven't done anything!)
For reference the Cowboys have second day guys in their lineup like Bradie James, Jason Whitten, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Chris Canty, Jay Ratliff... and that's just the guys I know of offhand. These guys are all significant contributors, and most of them are starters or platoon guys.
If you notice on your list, the years we had third rounders we took Dock and
ey, and they ended up pretty good. We hardly ever have a fourth rounder, and you just can't expect to have a ton of guys on your roster from the 5th round on. The fact that they do have Doughty Montgomery and Golston shows that they can draft some guys well late, but they also waste some picks like Sartz and so on. The thing with dallas and new england is that they stock up on picks from rounds two to four and get a ton of guys that have a chance to be on the roster. Thats how they got Canty and Barber in the same year. They also had two first rounders that year and got Ware and Spears. It was a ridiculous draft for them. But of the guys on your list, only one that plays a lot came after the fourth and that was crayton, who was a good small school gamble. So basically Dallas doesn't draft late better than us, they just accumulate more picks in the middle and do a good job there.
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:08 pm
by Skinsfan55
I just shredded your argument that we were a good drafting team in the late rounds, and you went on to repeat it verbatim. Hmmm.
I say again, the Redskins stink at drafting, especially in the late rounds and they have since the early nineties.
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:19 pm
by brad7686
No not at all, 4th round is not late, and if we had fourth round picks, than maybe we could be a good drafting team. We have just as many people as dallas on our roster who are fifth or later. I don't see how you shredded my argument and i dont really see how it is that serious.
Posted: Sun Jan 13, 2008 9:32 pm
by PulpExposure
I once saw a statistic (which I can't find anymore, unfortunately), that after the 4th round, the league average is about 20% of players drafted start in the NFL. So basically, if you hit on a late rounder...you should be happy. You shouldn't expect to draft starters late...it's a bonus if it happens.
Wish I could find that article though.
Skinsfan55 wrote:[For reference the Cowboys have second day guys in their lineup like Bradie James, Jason Whitten, Patrick Crayton, Marion Barber, Chris Canty, Jay Ratliff... and that's just the guys I know of offhand. These guys are all significant contributors, and most of them are starters or platoon guys.
Witten was 3rd round. James was 4th round. Crayton was 7th round. Marion Barber was a 4th rounder. Canty was a 4th rounder. Ratliff was a 7th rounder.
I don't really count a 4th rounder as a late round pick; they're valuable (and imho the real issue with the Skins is trading away those 3rd and 4th round picks that can turn out quite well for you...)
The only real late rounders that you mention there are Crayton and Ratliff, both of whom are starting because they are the backups to injured players (Glenn and Ferguson, respectively).
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:17 am
by VetSkinsFan
2005:
7. Nehemiah Broughton- Gone
he's on IR on the skins still, BTW, not gone.
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:20 am
by Skinsfan55
VetSkinsFan wrote:2005:
7. Nehemiah Broughton- Gone
he's on IR on the skins still, BTW, not gone.
If he ever plays a meaningful snap with the Redskins I will be very surprised.
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 9:35 am
by Skinsfan55
PulpExposure wrote:I don't really count a 4th rounder as a late round pick; they're valuable (and imho the real issue with the Skins is trading away those 3rd and 4th round picks that can turn out quite well for you...)
The only real late rounders that you mention there are Crayton and Ratliff, both of whom are starting because they are the backups to injured players (Glenn and Ferguson, respectively).
I was thinking that second day picks included the 3rd round, but that isn't the case (at least not this year according to what I read, is that different from previous years?)
In any case, we're looking at the second day picks, and eliminating 3rd rounders from this makes us have an even worse record that I first thought.
The Redskins have been trading their picks, but that really only strengthens my argument, other teams have been building through the draft and getting players in the second day who can contribute while we effectively get nothing (either through trade or the players we've drafted.)
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 11:09 am
by PulpExposure
Skinsfan55 wrote:I was thinking that second day picks included the 3rd round, but that isn't the case (at least not this year according to what I read, is that different from previous years?)
No, first day has (as far as I remember) been rounds 1-3, then second day is 4-7.
The Redskins have been trading their picks, but that really only strengthens my argument, other teams have been building through the draft and getting players in the second day who can contribute while we effectively get nothing (either through trade or the players we've drafted.)
Well, we actually don't draft poorly as compared to the average NFL team, it's just we've been trading mid-level draft picks for players who did not perform. That's far more damaging. However, I like to think that the Redskins (not just Gibbs, but the Skins as an organization) have seen this too; notice that they didn't trade any picks from this draft.
We shall see how this offseason goes...
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 12:25 pm
by SkinsJock
It's not fun to really look at what they have done recently as they seem to be trying to be both more responsible with their draft picks and last year they did not go out and spend a lot on Free Agents - the Pats did in getting Thomas and trading (admittedly a great trade) for Moss - interesting that if Snyder had done exactly that with 2 players that suited what we needed but that were both expensive (Thomas) and a trade (Moss) a trade that most in the NFL pooh-poohed - the NFL would have said "see, same old Snyder, too much for the FA and a bad egg in the trade!"
It is much more interesting to use the "old" Snyder because of all those stupid decisions he made - it is not as much fun to think that maybe Snyder has changed because of Gibbs - that would make a lot of NFL "experts" look bad.
I think we will see a different Snyder, and soon - at least I hope for this team's sake we see a Snyder that has learned from Gibbs
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 2:09 pm
by CanesSkins26
notice that they didn't trade any picks from this draft.
I think we are missing our 4th rounder in this draft (yes I know, another year without a 4th round pick). I believe that it is from the Duckett trade.
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 4:34 pm
by VetSkinsFan
Skinsfan55 wrote:VetSkinsFan wrote:2005:
7. Nehemiah Broughton- Gone
he's on IR on the skins still, BTW, not gone.
If he ever plays a meaningful snap with the Redskins I will be very surprised.
I'm sure he'll be around. Sellers is no spring chicken.
Posted: Mon Jan 14, 2008 5:04 pm
by PulpExposure
CanesSkins26 wrote:notice that they didn't trade any picks from this draft.
I think we are missing our 4th rounder in this draft (yes I know, another year without a 4th round pick). I believe that it is from the Duckett trade.
Yeah I know. I meant we didn't trade any of this years picks...last year. We're still paying for old mistakes.