The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

Well, I just made a bet with my friend last night. I bet him $10.00 that the Pats won't score over 30 points against the Skins.

We'll see.

GSPODS wrote:

Justice Hog wrote:I just checked the NFL lines and saw that the Skins were 16-point dogs to the Pats this weekend.

Are we really in that bad of shape?

Here I am thinking this team may actually be able to compete with the Pats if we can somehow put an OL together.

16 points? That's a little much, don'tcha think?

What was the line on the New England / Miami game last week?

The Dolphins opened up at 16.5 points dogs, closed sunday at 17.5, is Vegas saying we are no better that Miami?

redskingush wrote:

GSPODS wrote:

Justice Hog wrote:I just checked the NFL lines and saw that the Skins were 16-point dogs to the Pats this weekend.

Are we really in that bad of shape?

Here I am thinking this team may actually be able to compete with the Pats if we can somehow put an OL together.

16 points? That's a little much, don'tcha think?

What was the line on the New England / Miami game last week?

The Dolphins opened up at 16.5 points dogs, closed sunday at 17.5, is Vegas saying we are no better that Miami?

Yes, and that was my point. Vegas doesn't set betting lines to lose house money. Based on head-to-head performance against Miami the odds line is about right. I'm confident the Redskins can beat the odds. Even if the Redskins lose this game, something tells me it will be closer than 17 points.

redskingush wrote:

GSPODS wrote:The Dolphins opened up at 16.5 points dogs, closed sunday at 17.5, is Vegas saying we are no better that Miami?

Well for one thing the Dolphins were at home, so really they'd be saying you're only 6 points better than Miami. Given Week 1 thats not unreasonable.

However, the Pats seem to have found the betting line ceiling. The Pats lines since destroying the Chargers week 2 have been:

vs Bills = favored by 17
@ Bengals MNF= favored by 7.5
vs Cleveland = started at 14 moved to 16.5
@Dal = started at 4, I believe it moved to 7
@Miami - favored by 17.5

The exceptions have been then-undefeated Dallas and @Cincy before people realized they were terrible on MNF. The only time they've come close to not covering is Cleveland when they won by 17 on a late fumble for TD.

Bettors are absolutely riding the Patriots. They got ~95% of the money against Dallas when the line was that small. Until they lose, or at least don't cover, the lines will be huge. The question is... are they essentially capped at 17 or will they creep upwards?

that spread is pretty accurate to me. i mean, lets face it, what have we proven by way of points ya know?

PantsB wrote:

redskingush wrote:

GSPODS wrote:The Dolphins opened up at 16.5 points dogs, closed sunday at 17.5, is Vegas saying we are no better that Miami?

Well for one thing the Dolphins were at home, so really they'd be saying you're only 6 points better than Miami. Given Week 1 thats not unreasonable.

However, the Pats seem to have found the betting line ceiling. The Pats lines since destroying the Chargers week 2 have been:

vs Bills = favored by 17
@ Bengals MNF= favored by 7.5
vs Cleveland = started at 14 moved to 16.5
@Dal = started at 4, I believe it moved to 7
@Miami - favored by 17.5

The exceptions have been then-undefeated Dallas and @Cincy before people realized they were terrible on MNF. The only time they've come close to not covering is Cleveland when they won by 17 on a late fumble for TD.

Bettors are absolutely riding the Patriots. They got ~95% of the money against Dallas when the line was that small. Until they lose, or at least don't cover, the lines will be huge. The question is... are they essentially capped at 17 or will they creep upwards?

Even before the Redskins game, the spread for their game against the Colts will be less than 3 points in one direction or the other. If the Redskins pull off an upset the lines will take a nosedive. If the Patriots somehow defeat the Redskins and the Colts back-to-back, the line will probably jump to 21 against their weak division opponents. Oddsmakers like to keep the line close enough to encourage bets both ways.

We may not win, but there is no way we lose by 16.

Desmond Howard wrote:We may not win, but there is no way we lose by 16.

If the offense that they trotted out for the Cardinals game shows up, I think they could easily lose the game by 16 plus. The Cards had 70 plus plays to the Redskins sub-50 and a 10 minute advantage in time of possession. The offense has got to stay on the field longer, as much as I believe in the Redskins defense, if the the offense has several three and outs, Brady will find a way to score enough to make this one laughable.

Fios wrote:

Desmond Howard wrote:We may not win, but there is no way we lose by 16.

If the offense that they trotted out for the Cardinals game shows up, I think they could easily lose the game by 16 plus. The Cards had 70 plus plays to the Redskins sub-50 and a 10 minute advantage in time of possession. The offense has got to stay on the field longer, as much as I believe in the Redskins defense, if the the offense has several three and outs, Brady will find a way to score enough to make this one laughable.

Need to run with Portis-Sellers and Betts combo,we don't need to even pass if we move the chains and keep them from scoring.

But 10=9 like England wife said.

Fios wrote:

Desmond Howard wrote:We may not win, but there is no way we lose by 16.

If the offense that they trotted out for the Cardinals game shows up, I think they could easily lose the game by 16 plus. The Cards had 70 plus plays to the Redskins sub-50 and a 10 minute advantage in time of possession. The offense has got to stay on the field longer, as much as I believe in the Redskins defense, if the the offense has several three and outs, Brady will find a way to score enough to make this one laughable.

Indeed. For the Skins, success in this game means making every drive count, efficiency and field position on special teams, minimizing turnovers and 3-and-outs, and forcing the Patriots into some situations that are foreign to them, thus far this season. Offensively, this means they're gonna have to be on-the-money, playcall-wise, and even moreso in their execution of the o-gameplan. Defensively, it's gotta be a bend-don't-break approach, with the emphasis on sure tackling and keeping those receivers in front of the safeties... and smart penalties only.

I still think this game will be won at the line of scrimmage. If the Skins can manage to pressure Brady through the middle and make him go through his 2nd or 3rd progression, they have a chance at making some big plays in the pass-rush. I like this game being on the road for the Skins too. They've got the billboard material and the "us vs. the world" approach. Now it's just about executing and playing some tough Redskin football and not letting the Patsies stay pretty and cleancut.