Page 7 of 9
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:48 pm
by SkinsJock
I'm not against paying Cousins a lot of money - as long as there's more than enough money to pay all the other players as well - If Cousins salary demand is based on getting the best he can without any regard for what that means to the franchise's ability to pay all of the other players over the term of the contract, then, hopefully he's not here
I doubt this FO thinks that Cousins is going to get much better OR that he's going to learn how to win the big games
so, yes! pay the man ... but don't pay him too much
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:15 pm
by EA7649
SkinsJock wrote:so, yes! pay the man ... but don't pay him too much
I think everyone wants that. But based off history from Kirk. Its clear he's going to be pricey.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:57 am
by SkinsJock
EA7649 wrote:SkinsJock wrote:so, yes! pay the man ... but don't pay him too much
I think everyone wants that. But based off history from Kirk. Its clear he's going to be pricey.
no doubt it's going to be big deal maybe the highest paid QB but the FO is not paying Cousins enough that it will inhibit what they want to pay to others - too many of these players are only interested in getting what they can and not looking at being able to help a franchise do better and getting well paid at the same time - we need players that just want to win not players that want to be paid above FMV
I'd like to have him here so we can build around him and bring in a winning QB ASAP to take over from Cousins
I'd love to get that #2 pick and next year's #1 instead of throwing money at him just to get him to stay
HE'S NOT THAT GOOD - WE DON'T HAVE TO HAVE COUSINS IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:02 pm
by DarthMonk
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:SkinsJock wrote:the only fans that think that Kirk Cousins is a top 10 QB are the butt-hurt kissing Cousins fans
Cousins might be top 15 or even top 10 if you really manipulate the stats to make his case.
He's easily top 10 without manipulations and probably more like top 5 or 6.
Total QBR – This is ESPN’s top quarterback metric, Total Quarterback Rating, which is on a scale of 0 to 100. It’s a lot better than the long-used passer rating, because Total QBR takes into account rushes, sacks and penalties. Also, Total QBR is adjusted for opponent (as opposed to Raw QBR). Kirk was sixth in the NFL with a Total QBR of 71.7 during the 2016 regular season (0.3 behind Brees and 0.5 ahead of Luck).He was sixth in the NFL with a Total QBR of 71.0 in 2015.
Total EPA – This is Total Clutch-Weighted Expected Points Added, which is essentially a measure of how much a player contributes to winning. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. Kirk was fifth among NFL quarterbacks with a Total EPA of 97.9 during the 2016 regular season He was seventh among NFL quarterbacks with a Total EPA of 82.6 in 2015.
Yards Per Pass Attempt – Kirk was third in the NFL with an 8.11 YDS/A during the 2016 regular season. He was eighth in the NFL with a 7.67 YDS/A in 2015.
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) – This is a Football Outsiders metric that gives the value of a player’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. This is essentially to football what Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is to baseball. Kirk was third among NFL quarterbacks with 1,342 DYAR during the 2016 regular season. He was seventh among NFL quarterbacks with 1,023 DYAR in 2015.
Kirk led all NFL quarterbacks in Air Yards during the 2016 regular season.
Air Yards are the total yards a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. The number is arrived at by subtracting Yards After Catch (YAC) from total passing yards. The idea with tracking Air Yards is to differentiate between those quarterbacks who are Checkdown Charlies or benefit greatly from YAC from those quarterbacks who “earn” their passing yardage with accurate and downfield throwing. Kirk’s 2,939 Air Yards per SportingCharts.com were 143 more than the next-best total (Drew Brees’ 2,796). Remember this the next time you hear that Kirk is just a dink-and-dunk passer or is simply a product of the system or his weapons. Kirk was 10th in the NFL in Air Yards in 2015 (2,258).
Kirk did all of this while facing the toughest schedule of opposing defenses that any quarterback faced during the 2016 regular season.
Yes, you read that right. Kirk did what he did this past regular season despite facing the hardest schedule of opposing defenses per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Nine of the Redskins’ 16 games were against teams that finished the season in the top 11 of the NFL in total defense: Pittsburgh (no. 11), the Giants twice (no. 2), Baltimore (no. 6), Philadelphia twice (no. 4), Minnesota (no. 9), Arizona (no. 3) and Carolina (no. 10). The Redskins faced just the 28th-toughest schedule in 2015. A lot of people like to discount Kirk’s 2015 due to the opposition. Fine. Then upgrade his 2016 due to the opposition.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:17 pm
by SkinsJock
as a matter off interest DM - Do you think the FO should offer Cousins a contract that will affect what they can pay other players over the duration of the contract OR a contract that will still give them room to pay all the other players they need even if it's not enough to keep Cousins here
it would seem that they are going to have to make him a huge offer to get him to sign a long term deal
I hope they put a really good offer on the table but not one that affects what they want to do financially, even if it means losing Cousins and especially if Kyle gets the 49ers job and we can get that #2 pick
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:25 pm
by SkinsJock
all those stats indicate that Kirk should have won a lot of games ... funny how that works out ....
I prefer a winner on the scoreboard over a winner on the stat sheet
I hope this FO gets a shot at putting a winning QB under center in the near future
all you hear about in New England is how the players want to come and play here because they want to play for titles not for money - a lot of what I'm hearing from you guys is that we are trying to pay a player to stay who does not want to play for us unless we pay him enough
hopefully he's not here this next season if that's how he feels
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:28 pm
by DarthMonk
^^^ Even if we pay him Andrew Luck money it won't look bad at all in 5 years unless he craps the bed repeatedly - and there is no evidence that will happen.
As Mick Jagger might say - The cap is going up up up up up. To live in this town you must be tough tough tough tough tough tough tough tough tough. Uh-huh, this town's full of money grabbers.
I don't think Kirk is one of them. He works his ass off.
We are already looking to be $50 M under AFTER signing Kirk to that kind of deal.
Kirk did not lose to the Lions or tie the Bengals. He's 10-6 against the toughest defenses any QB faced last year if our historically bad defense does not crap the bed with a minute to go and a 4 point lead on Detroit and our FG kicker makes a chip shot in London. Not excuses but rather - explanations.
With simply an average defense this past year we are a playoff team.
All evidence points to Kirk continuing to improve.
Pay him and boslter the defense. There is plenty in the coffers.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:14 pm
by SkinsJock
so you're saying that based on the cap, there's no way this franchise will be affected financially, no matter what we have to pay Cousins?
that's fine with me - let's pay the man and hopefully the FO can find a winning QB to come in and replace him ASAP
FWIW - that #2 pick is looking better now that it looks like Kyle is going to get that 49ers job
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:34 am
by cowboykillerzRGiii
Interesting stats Darth... thanks for sharing.
he is number 1 in yards minus all Yac! Crazy!!
Pay Kirk.
Build team.
Win sb... multiple.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:42 am
by cowboykillerzRGiii
DarthMonk wrote:Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:SkinsJock wrote:the only fans that think that Kirk Cousins is a top 10 QB are the butt-hurt kissing Cousins fans
Cousins might be top 15 or even top 10 if you really manipulate the stats to make his case.
He's easily top 10 without manipulations and probably more like top 5 or 6.
Total QBR – This is ESPN’s top quarterback metric, Total Quarterback Rating, which is on a scale of 0 to 100. It’s a lot better than the long-used passer rating, because Total QBR takes into account rushes, sacks and penalties. Also, Total QBR is adjusted for opponent (as opposed to Raw QBR). Kirk was sixth in the NFL with a Total QBR of 71.7 during the 2016 regular season (0.3 behind Brees and 0.5 ahead of Luck).He was sixth in the NFL with a Total QBR of 71.0 in 2015.
Total EPA – This is Total Clutch-Weighted Expected Points Added, which is essentially a measure of how much a player contributes to winning. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. Kirk was fifth among NFL quarterbacks with a Total EPA of 97.9 during the 2016 regular season He was seventh among NFL quarterbacks with a Total EPA of 82.6 in 2015.
Yards Per Pass Attempt – Kirk was third in the NFL with an 8.11 YDS/A during the 2016 regular season. He was eighth in the NFL with a 7.67 YDS/A in 2015.
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) – This is a Football Outsiders metric that gives the value of a player’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. This is essentially to football what Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is to baseball. Kirk was third among NFL quarterbacks with 1,342 DYAR during the 2016 regular season. He was seventh among NFL quarterbacks with 1,023 DYAR in 2015.
Kirk led all NFL quarterbacks in Air Yards during the 2016 regular season.
Air Yards are the total yards a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. The number is arrived at by subtracting Yards After Catch (YAC) from total passing yards. The idea with tracking Air Yards is to differentiate between those quarterbacks who are Checkdown Charlies or benefit greatly from YAC from those quarterbacks who “earn” their passing yardage with accurate and downfield throwing. Kirk’s 2,939 Air Yards per SportingCharts.com were 143 more than the next-best total (Drew Brees’ 2,796). Remember this the next time you hear that Kirk is just a dink-and-dunk passer or is simply a product of the system or his weapons. Kirk was 10th in the NFL in Air Yards in 2015 (2,258).
Kirk did all of this while facing the toughest schedule of opposing defenses that any quarterback faced during the 2016 regular season.
Yes, you read that right. Kirk did what he did this past regular season despite facing the hardest schedule of opposing defenses per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Nine of the Redskins’ 16 games were against teams that finished the season in the top 11 of the NFL in total defense: Pittsburgh (no. 11), the Giants twice (no. 2), Baltimore (no. 6), Philadelphia twice (no. 4), Minnesota (no. 9), Arizona (no. 3) and Carolina (no. 10). The Redskins faced just the 28th-toughest schedule in 2015. A lot of people like to discount Kirk’s 2015 due to the opposition. Fine. Then upgrade his 2016 due to the opposition.
Love to see these stats for Dak, proving he is fools gold and was half the qb Kirk was. Sick to death of hearing about him... he had the graviest rookie qb position in history! Had he gone to Cle, he is likely forgotten by mid season- if that
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:08 am
by Burgundy&GoldForever
DarthMonk wrote:Insert wall of stats here
Empty stats.
9-7.
Missed playoffs.
10-6.
Lost in 1st round.
He's Tony Romo with better receivers.
If they pay him like he's Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers they're stupid.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:42 am
by riggofan
This whole "franchise Cousins and trade him for picks" scenario is being greatly over-simplified by fans too. (Big surprise there.) There's a third step in that process. Kirk would have to agree to whatever deal a potential trade partner has on the table. Otherwise, it would be insane for the 49ers or whoever to trade away picks for a guy they would have for a year, maybe.
Kirk would be smart to turn down anything other than the most ridiculous offer. Bet on himself yet again, play another year on the tag, become a truly unrestricted FA in 2018 and negotiate a bigger deal with multiple teams bidding. Why accept 5 years/$60m guaranteed from the 49ers this year? You don't need calculus to see that $24m/one year with the opportunity to sign a new deal in 2018 is better.
People can wave that idea off all you want. Cousins has shown for two years now that he can go out and put up 4000 yards in this system. Its not insane to think he won't do it again. Oh yeah, he's only 9-7, only 10-6 on a team with one of the worst defenses in the league. I'm sure that will really bother some of these QB starved teams.
It doesn't matter what your opinion of him is. The guy has a ridiculous amount of leverage and power right now. It was clear a year ago that there was at least a 70% chance this is where we would find ourselves. The fact that management waffled, hemmed and hawed and allowed this situation to become unmanageable is an embarrassment.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:13 pm
by Deadskins
riggofan wrote:This whole "franchise Cousins and trade him for picks" scenario is being greatly over-simplified by fans too. (Big surprise there.) There's a third step in that process. Kirk would have to agree to whatever deal a potential trade partner has on the table. Otherwise, it would be insane for the 49ers or whoever to trade away picks for a guy they would have for a year, maybe.
We wouldn't be trading him in that scenario. A non-exclusive franchise tag requires the Redskins to not better any deal offered by another team for them to receive the two first round picks as compensation. So any deal would, necessarily, have already been accepted by Kirk and his agent before his rights would go to the other team.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:24 pm
by riggofan
Deadskins wrote:riggofan wrote:This whole "franchise Cousins and trade him for picks" scenario is being greatly over-simplified by fans too. (Big surprise there.) There's a third step in that process. Kirk would have to agree to whatever deal a potential trade partner has on the table. Otherwise, it would be insane for the 49ers or whoever to trade away picks for a guy they would have for a year, maybe.
We wouldn't be trading him in that scenario. A non-exclusive franchise tag requires the Redskins to not better any deal offered by another team for them to receive the two first round picks as compensation. So any deal would, necessarily, have already been accepted by Kirk and his agent before his rights would go to the other team.
I understand that. The point is that its not just about a team being willing to give up the draft pick compensation. They're going to have to come to the table with an offer that Kirk will accept. No reason for him to accept anything less than whatever it is he feels is fair market.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:25 pm
by riggofan
Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL 2h2 hours ago
Shanahan power in SF = Cousins shouldn't sign long term with Skins unless it is a HUGE deal. Niners will pay him crazy $ next year.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:02 pm
by SkinsJock
riggofan wrote: ... The point is that its not just about a team being willing to give up the draft pick compensation. They're going to have to come to the table with an offer that Kirk will accept. No reason for him to accept anything less than whatever it is he feels is fair market.
from what I'm hearing Kirk Cousins is not looking to get paid anything less than a huge amount over what he's worth because that is what the FMV is going to be at - I'm not as concerned about the amount anymore because Darth has pointed out that no matter how much we have to pay to keep Cousins here long term, we are still going to have all the money we need to (a) keep all the other players we want to keep AND to (b) add any free agents we need as well - while we will continue to add BPA through the draft, we are going to need to add a lot of free agent players as well to bolster the defense
it's all good - pay the man - pay everyone, we can afford it
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:21 pm
by El Mexican
riggofan wrote:Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL 2h2 hours ago
Shanahan power in SF = Cousins shouldn't sign long term with Skins unless it is a HUGE deal. Niners will pay him crazy $ next year.
That's what I feared.
Even if we do not sign him, there's an absurd amount of attention being paid to one part of the overall system.
Granted, it's the most important part of the system, but we're placing ourselves in a bad position by
having basically no one behind him (Colt is a stop-gap).
That 2018 scenario makes perfect sense for him.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:25 pm
by riggofan
SkinsJock wrote:from what I'm hearing Kirk Cousins is not looking to get paid anything less than a huge amount over what he's worth
Yeah many people are saying that. Apparently they looked up the salary pay scale for NFL QBs on careers.com, found Cousins' exact, definitive "worth", and said, "Give me that amount + $200 billion."
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:36 pm
by SkinsJock
markshark84 wrote:SkinsJock wrote:JEEZ - stop with the Cousins is a top 10 QB BS
Cousins is top 10; that isn't even debatable.
OK - here's 15 NFL QBs in alphabetical order
Tom Brady; Drew Brees; Derek Carr; Andrew Luck; Eli Manning; Marcus Mariotta; Cam Newton; Carson Palmer;
Phillip Rivers; Aaron Rodgers; Ben Roethlisberger; Matt Ryan; Mathew Stafford; Russel Wilson; James Winston
and you're saying "it's not even debatable" - IF Cousins is top 10 and it isn't even debatable then he's top 7 or 8 - at least in your mind
give me a break
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:39 pm
by SkinsJock
riggofan wrote:SkinsJock wrote:from what I'm hearing Kirk Cousins is not looking to get paid anything less than a huge amount over what he's worth
Yeah many people are saying that. Apparently they looked up the salary pay scale for NFL QBs on careers.com, found Cousins' exact, definitive "worth", and said, "Give me that amount + $200 billion."
no worries - Darth M has posted that there's plenty of money to give Cousins a huge deal AND be able to pay everyone else
pay the man
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:43 pm
by DarthMonk
Burgundy&GoldForever wrote:DarthMonk wrote:Insert wall of stats here
Empty stats.
9-7.
Missed playoffs.
10-6.
Lost in 1st round.
He's Tony Romo with better receivers.
If they pay him like he's Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers they're stupid.
You made me laugh.
Romo has played for 13 years, started for 10, is 36, and is getting worse. Kirk has played for 5 years, started for 2, is 28, and is getting better.
I'd call the receivers they've had almost dead even and Romo had a better running game over the years then Kirk has had. Our defense this year was historically bad.
Before this year Matt Ryan =
11-5 lost in first round
9-5 missed playoffs
13-3 lost in 2nd round
10-6 lost in first round, scored zero points
13-3 lost conference title game
4-12 missed playoffs
6-10 missed playoffs
8-8 missed playoffs
CONTRACT:5 yr(s) / $103,750,000 SIGNING BONUS$28,000,000 AVERAGE SALARY$20,750,000 GUARANTEED:$42,000,000
I'd sign Kirk to that deal in a heartbeat.
When did Kirk Cousins go 9-7 and miss the playoffs??
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:53 pm
by SkinsJock
There's no doubt in my mind that Cousins is going to get a lot more than Matt Ryan's deal - NOT because he's a better QB - nobody with any sense thinks that except his agent and his family - because that is the current market value and each year somebody else will get more
I'm not worried about the amount - I just want to be able to afford all the other players we need - whether Cousins works out or not we need better players - especially for when/if Cousins is not here
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:55 pm
by DarthMonk
SkinsJock wrote:... and each year somebody else will get more ...
You nailed it, bro. Wish we had pulled the trigger last year on what would be an absolute bargain 6 years later.
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:02 pm
by SkinsJock
DarthMonk wrote:SkinsJock wrote:... and each year somebody else will get more ...
You nailed it, bro. Wish we had pulled the trigger last year on what would be an absolute bargain 6 years later.
It's really not that big of an issue, because, as you showed the cap # is going through the roof - IF Cousins had signed a long term deal and then realized he was being under paid, he would be even more determined to not want to play here
besides - there are obviously some that are still not that sure that Cousins is as good as many here think
Re: The Smart thing to do with Cousins
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:36 am
by riggofan
SkinsJock wrote:IF Cousins had signed a long term deal and then realized he was being under paid, he would be even more determined to not want to play here
If he had signed a long term deal, he wouldn't want to play here?
Makes sense to me.