PREDICTIONS on What Will Happen with Cousins

[SkinsJock]

Why are the franchise-tag numbers lower?
The owners fought hard for this one, arguing that the tag numbers in 2011 had been artificially inflated because clubs had stashed money in the uncapped year. The Redskins, for example, did that with DeAngelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, which caused seismic jumps in the franchise figures at corner and defensive tackle, respectively, and affected an across-the-board leap of 15-20 percent in price tags.

Well, that explains why they were so pissed off. Still doesn't justify the cap hits.

when you get Mara/Goodell hitting on their favorite franchise, what do you expect?

[SkinsJock]

... Like I said - could they technically get more than two first round picks? - under the FT? no! but with a trade, yes! but, what team would be that stupid?

it only takes 1 DEHog and there are a number of franchises that are really badly managed

2 1st round picks with a FO that is as good as this is a gift

as the saying goes you cannot have enough good players - trading 1 good player for 2 good players sounds fine to me

[riggofan]

2 1st round picks with a FO that is as good as this is a gift

Holy crap. McCloughan is filling that big empty hole in your heart where RG3 used to live, huh? The Front Office Messiah.

[riggofan]

"A FO that is good as this" drafted a RT who had to move to guard and a WR who played four snaps. Maybe we can wait for an actual draft home run before we start patting them on the back.

Imagine if we'd traded Kirk Cousins for Scherff and Doctson. Wonder how many people would be "fine" with that trade.

[PAPDOG67]

... Like I said - could they technically get more than two first round picks? - under the FT? no! but with a trade, yes! but, what team would be that stupid?

it only takes 1 DEHog and there are a number of franchises that are really badly managed

2 1st round picks with a FO that is as good as this is a gift

as the saying goes you cannot have enough good players - trading 1 good player for 2 good players sounds fine to me

That's if you get two good players in the draft, of course. There's no guarantees. We didn't exactly get great production out of Docston. I'll always take a sure thing over rolling the dice again.

[markshark84]

Imagine if we'd traded Kirk Cousins for Scherff and Doctson. Wonder how many people would be "fine" with that trade.

That is a VERY good way to look at it. Quite impressed. Never even thought about it that way. Scherff was a #4 and Doctson #22 --- which is the most likely scenario with any team getting Cousins, because as I said, he is a 4-5 game upgrade wherever he's going (as long as the team is a bad one). It is also relevant because about 56% of 1st rounders end up being producers. Scherff did, Doctson didn't. So from a statistical perspective, we are getting one good positional player for a franchise QB....... Sounds like an crazy idiotic move if we made it.... Like ALL TIME STUPID. Like what we did with Trent Green stupid.....

And yes, it also proves what I have been saying all along. A QB of Cousins' caliber is worth 4-5 picks --- which is what many have given up to acquire a top rated QB via the draft. That's the value. And Cousins is PROVEN. Those other picks aren't...... Anyone that would be "happy" with 2 1st rounders in exchange for Cousins has NO CLUE what is considered value in the NFL.

[riggofan]

Imagine if we'd traded Kirk Cousins for Scherff and Doctson. Wonder how many people would be "fine" with that trade.

That is a VERY good way to look at it. Quite impressed. Never even thought about it that way. Scherff was a #4 and Doctson #22 --- which is the most likely scenario with any team getting Cousins, because as I said, he is a 4-5 game upgrade wherever he's going (as long as the team is a bad one). It is also relevant because about 56% of 1st rounders end up being producers. Scherff did, Doctson didn't. So from a statistical perspective, we are getting one good positional player for a franchise QB....... Sounds like an crazy idiotic move if we made it....

And yes, it also proves what I have been saying all along. A QB of Cousins' caliber is worth 4-5 picks --- which is what many have given up to acquire a top rated QB via the draft. That's the value. And Cousins is PROVEN. Those other picks aren't......

That's the way I look at it too. And no offense to Scherff (who I'm glad we drafted) or Docston (just unfair to evaluate him fully), but the bottom line is if you'd traded Cousins for those two first round players, you've got a pro bowl guard, an injured WR and no QB. I'm not sure how that's an improvement to your team.

[riggofan]

That's if you get two good players in the draft, of course. There's no guarantees. We didn't exactly get great production out of Docston. I'll always take a sure thing over rolling the dice again.

That's it exactly, man. Me too.

[DarthMonk]

The latest news cycle has changed my prediction:

We offer Cousins $120 M over 6 years with $45 M to $55 M guaranteed and an option after year 2. They counter with $150 M over 6 years with $80 M guaranteed.

We try to compromise but we can't agree and we tag him.

Meanwhile, Kyle signs Matt Schaub who just finished backing up Matt Ryan.

[SkinsJock]

oh boy - if Cousins is worth 4-5 picks, we are made in the shade ...

the FO wants to keep Cousins but they're not going to be stupid about it because he's just not good enough - END OF STORY

time to suck it up and pray that this FO doesn't keep screwing up and adding players that are not helping - as some here are posting




I LOVE THIS FO and I'm loving the anguish that some here are going through over a QB that is good but not good enough

[SkinsJock]

That's if you get two good players in the draft, of course. There's no guarantees. We didn't exactly get great production out of Docston. I'll always take a sure thing over rolling the dice again.

That's it exactly, man. Me too.

me three - but just don't be stupid about it ...

when you're building an NFL franchise, you cannot have enough good, young players - they might not all become really good players but the chances of having a lot of good players increases by having more to look at and evaluate

[PAPDOG67]

You can have all the good players you want. If you don't have a good trigger man, you're way behind the eight ball in today's NFL. Its a passing league.

[riggofan]

The latest news cycle has changed my prediction:

We offer Cousins $120 M over 6 years with $45 M to $55 M guaranteed and an option after year 2. They counter with $150 M over 6 years with $80 M guaranteed.

We try to compromise but we can't agree and we tag him.

Meanwhile, Kyle signs Matt Schaub who just finished backing up Matt Ryan.

That's very specific. You've clearly given this a lot of thought, man!

[SkinsJock]

You can have all the good players you want. If you don't have a good trigger man, you're way behind the eight ball in today's NFL. Its a passing league.

we just saw last season what it's like to have a good "trigger man" and a record setting offense - something was missing

IF we pay this "trigger man" too much we will not be able to do much because we cannot afford to pay all the other players we need

This FO will get it all together without having to pay too much for a "trigger man" that just sets crazy passing records



If Cousins wants the money I hope we don't have to have him for 1 more season - he's so not worth it

[markshark84]

The latest news cycle has changed my prediction:

We offer Cousins $120 M over 6 years with $45 M to $55 M guaranteed and an option after year 2. They counter with $150 M over 6 years with $80 M guaranteed.

We try to compromise but we can't agree and we tag him.

Meanwhile, Kyle signs Matt Schaub who just finished backing up Matt Ryan.

80M is too much but honestly still doable. That is like:
$24M Sign
$10M Y1 Roster Bonus
$7M Y1
$18 Y2
$21M Y3
Nonguaranteed
22M Y4
23M Y5
26M Y6
Cap Hits: Y1: 21M, Y2: 22M, Y3: 25M, |||| Y4: 26M, Y5: 27M, Y6: 31M
Dead Money: Y4: 12M, Y5: 8M, Y6: 4M
If you are putting 80M as the guaranteed #, it's a 4 year deal due to dead cap.

That being said, I think the guaranteed portion is closer to 65M. And if we can we'll do this:
$20M Sign
$10M Roster Y1
$2M Y1
15M Y2
18M Y3
Nonguaranteed:
22M Y4
25M Y5
Cap Hits: Y1: 17M, Y2: 19M, Y3: 22M |||| Y4: 26M, Y5: 29M
Dead Cap: Y4: 8M, Y5: 4M
5 YR, 112M with 58% guaranteed.
It's a 3 year deal if necessary. He gets 32M in Y1 and 65M guaranteed overall.
Way better than having a 24M cap hit next year and we lock him up.
I don't see why he wouldn't take the latter deal.

[DarthMonk]

The latest news cycle has changed my prediction:

We offer Cousins $120 M over 6 years with $45 M to $55 M guaranteed and an option after year 2. They counter with $150 M over 6 years with $80 M guaranteed.

We try to compromise but we can't agree and we tag him.

Meanwhile, Kyle signs Matt Schaub who just finished backing up Matt Ryan.

80M is too much but honestly still doable. That is like:
$24M Sign
$10M Y1 Roster Bonus
$7M Y1
$18 Y2
$21M Y3
Nonguaranteed
22M Y4
23M Y5
26M Y6
Cap Hits: Y1: 21M, Y2: 22M, Y3: 25M, |||| Y4: 26M, Y5: 27M, Y6: 31M
Dead Money: Y4: 12M, Y5: 8M, Y6: 4M
If you are putting 80M as the guaranteed #, it's a 4 year deal due to dead cap.

That being said, I think the guaranteed portion is closer to 65M. And if we can we'll do this:
$20M Sign
$10M Roster Y1
$2M Y1
15M Y2
18M Y3
Nonguaranteed:
22M Y4
25M Y5M.
Cap Hits: Y1: 17M, Y2: 19M, Y3: 22M |||| Y4: 26M, Y5: 29M
Dead Cap: Y4: 8M, Y5: 4M
5 YR, 112M with 58% guaranteed.
It's a 3 year deal if necessary. He gets 32M in Y1 and 65M guaranteed overall.
Way better than having a 24M cap hit next year and we lock him up.
I don't see why he wouldn't take the latter deal.

Weird how 80 and 150 seems so sick but probably would seem reasonable when he's 34 and the cap is over $200 M - especially if he played well and we got a title in there somewhere. Option years at the end would be nice too.

What do you think is going to happen?

[markshark84]

Weird how 80 and 150 seems so sick but probably would seem reasonable when he's 34 and the cap is over $200 M - especially if he played well and we got a title in there somewhere. Option years at the end would be nice too.

What do you think is going to happen?

It's unreal what you can do with numbers. If I can put together something in 2 mins like the above, our FO should be able to craft a very creative contract that gets Cousins what he wants with a doable cap hit over 5-6 years.

I am not totally sold on the fact Cousins wants to stay here. There is nothing leading me to this conclusion except his history here. Sometimes old experiences can leave a bad taste in your mouth and you want out. Bigger men can looked past those --- but it becomes more difficult when you have 5 other teams kissing your @ss and you're in your late 20s.

Personally --- I think that what will happen is whatever Cousins wants to happen. If he truly doesn't want to stay here --- he'll play under the tag in 2017 and then walk. If he does, they come to a long term agreement before August. In thinking about it, I don't see a team giving up the picks only because they don't really have to; they can just wait a year.....

The conspiracy theory would be that Cousins makes an agreement with Kyle this summer to go to SF in 2018 when he becomes a true FA and play under the tag in DC in 2017; meanwhile SF plays a "dead man walking" QB for 2017 (like a journeyman QB or a later round rookie) --- that way SF doesn't waste the 2 picks and they still end up with their QB. After all Kyle & Co. have a 6 year deal --- making it almost impossible for ownership to get rid of him in his first 3 years.

[DarthMonk]

Personally --- I think that what will happen is whatever Cousins wants to happen.

And what do you think that is?

[SkinsJock]

I predict that Cousins signs a long term deal that is good for the player and the franchise

no matter what happens with Cousins, the FO has to find a QB that will be ready to take over in a couple of years while the FO is putting the pieces in place to have a consistently competitive product on the field with a QB that is fully committed to the Redskins

[RigAr4456]

Weird how 80 and 150 seems so sick but probably would seem reasonable when he's 34 and the cap is over $200 M - especially if he played well and we got a title in there somewhere. Option years at the end would be nice too.

What do you think is going to happen?

It's unreal what you can do with numbers. If I can put together something in 2 mins like the above, our FO should be able to craft a very creative contract that gets Cousins what he wants with a doable cap hit over 5-6 years.

I am not totally sold on the fact Cousins wants to stay here. There is nothing leading me to this conclusion except his history here. Sometimes old experiences can leave a bad taste in your mouth and you want out. Bigger men can looked past those --- but it becomes more difficult when you have 5 other teams kissing your @ss and you're in your late 20s.

Personally --- I think that what will happen is whatever Cousins wants to happen. If he truly doesn't want to stay here --- he'll play under the tag in 2017 and then walk. If he does, they come to a long term agreement before August. In thinking about it, I don't see a team giving up the picks only because they don't really have to; they can just wait a year.....

The conspiracy theory would be that Cousins makes an agreement with Kyle this summer to go to SF in 2018 when he becomes a true FA and play under the tag in DC in 2017; meanwhile SF plays a "dead man walking" QB for 2017 (like a journeyman QB or a later round rookie) --- that way SF doesn't waste the 2 picks and they still end up with their QB. After all Kyle & Co. have a 6 year deal --- making it almost impossible for ownership to get rid of him in his first 3 years.

That would be truly diabolical

[riggofan]

I predict that Cousins signs a long term deal that is good for the player and the franchise

Wasn't so sure about this a few weeks ago, but I personally think this is more likely now too. I think Bruce (and presumably Dan) want to make it happen.

I don't think anyone wants to risk taking a step backwards.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

FWIW:

Joel Corry says there's a zero percent chance the Redskins sign Kirk Cousins to a long term deal.

http://cdn.stationcaster.com/stations/w ... 763869.mp3

[DEHog]

Weird how 80 and 150 seems so sick but probably would seem reasonable when he's 34 and the cap is over $200 M - especially if he played well and we got a title in there somewhere. Option years at the end would be nice too.

What do you think is going to happen?

It's unreal what you can do with numbers. If I can put together something in 2 mins like the above, our FO should be able to craft a very creative contract that gets Cousins what he wants with a doable cap hit over 5-6 years.

I am not totally sold on the fact Cousins wants to stay here. There is nothing leading me to this conclusion except his history here. Sometimes old experiences can leave a bad taste in your mouth and you want out. Bigger men can looked past those --- but it becomes more difficult when you have 5 other teams kissing your @ss and you're in your late 20s.

Personally --- I think that what will happen is whatever Cousins wants to happen. If he truly doesn't want to stay here --- he'll play under the tag in 2017 and then walk. If he does, they come to a long term agreement before August. In thinking about it, I don't see a team giving up the picks only because they don't really have to; they can just wait a year.....

The conspiracy theory would be that Cousins makes an agreement with Kyle this summer to go to SF in 2018 when he becomes a true FA and play under the tag in DC in 2017; meanwhile SF plays a "dead man walking" QB for 2017 (like a journeyman QB or a later round rookie) --- that way SF doesn't waste the 2 picks and they still end up with their QB. After all Kyle & Co. have a 6 year deal --- making it almost impossible for ownership to get rid of him in his first 3 years.

I don't see the Skins letting him play under the cap this year and walking next year with nothing in return. They have to be smart, if they make a fair offer and Cousins doesn't sign then you know he doesn't want to be here and you allow him to go work out a deal with another team so you get something for him.

[riggofan]

FWIW:

Joel Corry says there's a zero percent chance the Redskins sign Kirk Cousins to a long term deal.

http://cdn.stationcaster.com/stations/w ... 763869.mp3

Well if Joel Corry says it, must be true.

[Burgundy&GoldForever]

FWIW:

Joel Corry says there's a zero percent chance the Redskins sign Kirk Cousins to a long term deal.

http://cdn.stationcaster.com/stations/w ... 763869.mp3

Well if Joel Corry says it, must be true.

As a former player agent and a cap expert I think his opinion holds slightly more weight than that of the typical talking head. Obviously, he could be wrong. But his reasoning makes sense.