The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

SkinsJock wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:

SkinsJock wrote:to advocate giving up the draft picks and good players OR do whatever it takes to get a great QB shows STUPIDITY

It certainly was stupid for Mike to give up draft choices for McNabb. It would be even stupider to give up picks for a great QB. lol

I understand the CRITICAL need for a good QB and I agree that Luck will most likely be a great QB

I do not agree that the quickest way to be a consistently competitive franchise is to simply add Luck

I agree that this FO has made mistakes to date but at the same time they have lifted this franchise by adding players and getting rid of players that did not suit - they can continue this process ONLY if they have the draft picks - we need all of the draft picks we ac get

we need to continue to build and add


I understand the frustration of some here but I cannot agree that the quickes way to get to where we all want is to simply add Luck and give up the 2 top picks in this draft and the 2 top picks in the next plus whatever else these fans want to give up to get Luck

we are better off staying the course and getting a free agent QB to come in here and be better than Grossman
THAT IS EASY, there must be a few QBs playing now that can do the job better

I understand that there are not a lot of college QBs that are going to be ready to play coming out of this draft and maybe next

I still would rather not give up 4 draft picks this year (2 in 2012 and 2 in 2013) and then who knows how many more draft picks later to help the franchise because Andrew Luck will need help

THAT SCENARIO is JUST NOT THE BEST WAT to getting a consistently competitive team here - NO WAY

I do not agree that the quickest way to be a consistently competitive franchise is to simply add Luck

"quickest" way are your words - I am talking about getting a long term solution to our quarterback woes. I don't care if Luck or RGIII sit for a few games while the line gets better as the season goes - like to they have done the last couple of years - it doesn't have to be quick - it needs to be long term - not a oh, let's try out Flynn who has nowhere near the skill set of RGIII and Luck.

By the way, I see don't see your suggestion as to who we should go after or draft since you believe that there is no way that ShanAllen, the FO that you trust, can pull off any creative trade and get these guys without "selling the future of the team." Remember Shanny is on a 5 year plan - getting the QB now is a good move. Who's your guy?

SkinsJock wrote:as bad as the college QBs coming out are, I understand wanting to give up a lot of picks to solve the QB issue

I think we're better off (although not a lot better off) by using our draft picks and continuing what these guys have done

Was Cam Newton bad last year? Keep doing what these guys have done? Throw draft picks at a QB that that failed to research his work ethic history? What makes you think that they haven't learned a lesson and use some draft picks to use the draft to get the QB?

you know what - I'd love it if Andrew Luck could come in here and play

my hesitation is because this kind of 'deal' is what Dan Snyder would love to do

The kind of deal that Synder would love to do - are you kidding? Have you seen the QBs that we have signed under Snyder - none of them close to the skill set of Luck and RGIII. This deal would be precisely counter to anything we have done under Snyder.

Trust you FO. If they can do it, they will be creative about it. If they can't, they won't do it. Now, who is your guy? Grossman?

SkinsJock wrote:as bad as the college QBs coming out are, I understand wanting to give up a lot of picks to solve the QB issue

I think we're better off (although not a lot better off) by using our draft picks and continuing what these guys have done


you know what - I'd love it if Andrew Luck could come in here and play

my hesitation is because this kind of 'deal' is what Dan Snyder would love to do

The QB problem is not solved by draft picks. It is only solved by finding a good QB, by draft, free agency, trade. The easy part is naming the mechanism by which a teams signs a QB.

The impossible part is predicting which QB will be good.

How many QBs were drafted in the first round over the last 20 years? Of those, how many led their teams to a conference championship? How many did it twice?

Just for, oh, call it amusement at somebody else's misery, note that Jet fans and NY media have concluded that Mark Sanchez is too erratic. The Jets were lucky for two seasons...this, now, is the real Sanchez and the real Jets.

SkinsJock wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:You don't see the circular logic and constant contradiction in your own statements, do you?

NO

1) The McNabb trade was a big mistake - something had to be done and that did not work out - GET OVER IT

2) Why can you not point out that as much as we needed to draft a QB last year, they thought it best not to

3) This FO has made some incredibly bad calls on 3 QBs

Followed by:

1-A) They are here - they can continue to build this franchise but ONLY if they continue with the Shanaplan

2-A) we have seen good things from this FO

3-A) it starts with not making STUPID decisions like giving up a bunch of high picks

You seem to be right on the verge of losing an argument with yourself.

not at all - I'm simply agreeing that mistakes were made

This FO has brought this franchise back and I think they should continue to build on what they've started


I admit that I'd love to get Luck - I just wonder if these guys can survive the transition

I just don't want Snyder taking over here again



given how bad the draft situation is for QBs - this year and next - I can understand giving everything up

it's going to be an interesting 4 months here

You're coming around.

Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him. And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

SkinsJock wrote:as bad as the college QBs coming out are, I understand wanting to give up a lot of picks to solve the QB issue

I think we're better off (although not a lot better off) by using our draft picks and continuing what these guys have done


you know what - I'd love it if Andrew Luck could come in here and play

my hesitation is because this kind of 'deal' is what Dan Snyder would love to do

The QB problem is not solved by draft picks. It is only solved by finding a good QB, by draft, free agency, trade. The easy part is naming the mechanism by which a teams signs a QB.

The impossible part is predicting which QB will be good.

How many QBs were drafted in the first round over the last 20 years? Of those, how many led their teams to a conference championship? How many did it twice?

Just for, oh, call it amusement at somebody else's misery, note that Jet fans and NY media have concluded that Mark Sanchez is too erratic. The Jets were lucky for two seasons...this, now, is the real Sanchez and the real Jets.

SkinsJock wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:You don't see the circular logic and constant contradiction in your own statements, do you?

NO

1) The McNabb trade was a big mistake - something had to be done and that did not work out - GET OVER IT

2) Why can you not point out that as much as we needed to draft a QB last year, they thought it best not to

3) This FO has made some incredibly bad calls on 3 QBs

Followed by:

1-A) They are here - they can continue to build this franchise but ONLY if they continue with the Shanaplan

2-A) we have seen good things from this FO

3-A) it starts with not making STUPID decisions like giving up a bunch of high picks

You seem to be right on the verge of losing an argument with yourself.

not at all - I'm simply agreeing that mistakes were made

This FO has brought this franchise back and I think they should continue to build on what they've started


I admit that I'd love to get Luck - I just wonder if these guys can survive the transition

I just don't want Snyder taking over here again



given how bad the draft situation is for QBs - this year and next - I can understand giving everything up

it's going to be an interesting 4 months here

You're coming around.

Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him. And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

Ray'n said:

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man"

I get your greater point... I'd just note that Ryan Leaf was screaming just as loudly... it was, essentially the marketing genius of Archie that resulted in Peyton being selected #1. Leaf was viewed as every bit the equal of Peyton at the time.

How'd that turn out? My point is, there is no such thing as a sure thing... no matter how sure it looks.

RayNAustin wrote:

RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

.

I certainly understand you push for Luck, pro style QBs on average make the transition to the NFL easier, but man, do I disagree with you on your assessment with RGIII

Great athlete? great college QB? - they said that stuff about Cam. RG already is ahead of Cam in QB skills. Cam has that will to succeed, he did those steps necessary to prepare him for the NFL.

Comparing Michael Vick and RGIII - where is the comparison? Vick impersonator? Really? RGIII is light years ahead of Vick coming out of college. No comparison in QB skills and RG doens't have Vick's running skills - who does?

RGIII
Senior YR - 267 ATT 369 COMP 3998 YDS 72.4 PCT 36 TDS 6 INT 192.3

Vick -

Senior YR 97 179 1439 54.2 9 7

Is RGIII a running QB or a spread QB who runs by design?

Check out the college rushing stats for Dalton and Smith. They are not seen as running QBs in the NFL. You would have a better argument if you said that spread QBs transition to the NFL has not been as successful as those in pro sets.

Just like Luck is something above average. When it comes to spread QBs, RGIII is something special because he has the QB skill set that spread guys like Vick, Newton, Dalton and Smith didn't have coming out of College. Check out RGIII's accuracy.

One thing you do have a point is RGIII is not compact like Vick and he is not big like the other QBs, but why seel RGIII short, and believe that he cannot be a pocket passer like Dalton and Smith made the transition.

Even Montana averaged 43 carries in his last 7 full seasons in SF. I expect RGIII to learn to use his feet to get people open like Montana, because RGIII has proven to be a student of the game. He has shown that he has the aptitude to understand what it takes to play at the next level.

Final question? Just curious. How do you define a running QB?

Is Steve Young a Running QB or a QB that runs? I define him as a QB that runs, but I would bet that RGIII learns faster than Steve to learn to use his feet to extend plays.


Steve Young 1993 season rushing stats/1994 SB MVP

69 carries 407 YdS 2 TDs 35 Long 5.9 Carreer high carries was 76.

Joe Montana 1983 Season

61 Carries 284 YDS 2 TDS 18 Long 4.7 Career high carries.


All that being said, right now without the benefit of the of combine and pro days, I would have to go with Luck because he is the pro ready right now, but I am keeping an open mind as the off season progresses to the draft. I like RGIII and if he shows that to the scouts that he is comfortable in the pro style O and all the verbage - hey, I go with RGIII.

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204841

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=3561

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... unSt00.htm

Countertrey wrote:Ray'n said:

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man"

I get your greater point... I'd just note that Ryan Leaf was screaming just as loudly... it was, essentially the marketing genius of Archie that resulted in Peyton being selected #1. Leaf was viewed as every bit the equal of Peyton at the time.

How'd that turn out? My point is, there is no such thing as a sure thing... no matter how sure it looks.

There's no guarantee that Aaron Rodgers won't get run over by a beer truck either, or Tom Brady suffering a Joe Theisman injury. But Ryan Leaf is not the same. The Skill Level was there for sure ... but he had major Character issues that teams and the analysts chose to ignore. What's even more surprising is that he was picked by one of the best personnel talent evaluators EVER .... Bobby Beathard.

But, because of Ryan Leaf, more consideration is now given to a player's character ... his off field conduct as well as his team oriented commitment. These issues plagued Jamarcus Russel ... lazy, no commitment ... no work ethic. And some ego issues are still in the background of Cam Newton. So far, it hasn't hurt him or his performance, but there are danger signs.

There are no issues like this with Andrew Luck.

RayNAustin wrote:Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him.

So far so good.

RayNAustin wrote:And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

We differ here. RGIII looks to move to throw. He's not Aaron Rodgers but he looks down field while moving like Rodgers does and seeks to throw first like Rodgers does for sure. He is a QB who can run - not a runner who can throw. He is not prone to bail out the way Vick and many others do.

Vick himself can't take the pounding Vick does. He (Vick) runs too much. RGIII is 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier and looks to pass first. RGIII is same height and weight as Rodgers. How about Vick is an RGIII impersanator without RGIII's size???!!!

Vick takes off and runs on 23% of his drops.

Rodgers does this on 11% of his.

RGIII does so on 30% of his in college.

Vick did so on 40% of his college drops.

I'd expect RGIII's running rate to halve like Vick's did. It better!

RayNAustin wrote:But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

The rest here is mostly opinion and is quite defendable.

DarthMonk

RayNAustin wrote:
You're coming around.

Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him. And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

ACTUALLY - you and RED_ONE have made me look at this 'deal' ....

I'll admit it - I am 'coming around' ..... do you think these guys can put 'this' together?

it might just be worth it - it stll scares me a lot though


i just worry that we're putting it all on 1 player - admittedly at the most important position

Red_One43 wrote:RayNAustin wrote:

RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

.

I certainly understand you push for Luck, pro style QBs on average make the transition to the NFL easier, but man, do I disagree with you on your assessment with RGIII

Great athlete? great college QB? - they said that stuff about Cam. RG already is ahead of Cam in QB skills. Cam has that will to succeed, he did those steps necessary to prepare him for the NFL.

Comparing Michael Vick and RGIII - where is the comparison? Vick impersonator? Really? RGIII is light years ahead of Vick coming out of college. No comparison in QB skills and RG doens't have Vick's running skills - who does?

RGIII
Senior YR - 267 ATT 369 COMP 3998 YDS 72.4 PCT 36 TDS 6 INT 192.3

Vick -

Senior YR 97 179 1439 54.2 9 7

Is RGIII a running QB or a spread QB who runs by design?

Check out the college rushing stats for Dalton and Smith. They are not seen as running QBs in the NFL. You would have a better argument if you said that spread QBs transition to the NFL has not been as successful as those in pro sets.

Just like Luck is something above average. When it comes to spread QBs, RGIII is something special because he has the QB skill set that spread guys like Vick, Newton, Dalton and Smith didn't have coming out of College. Check out RGIII's accuracy.

One thing you do have a point is RGIII is not compact like Vick and he is not big like the other QBs, but why seel RGIII short, and believe that he cannot be a pocket passer like Dalton and Smith made the transition.

Even Montana averaged 43 carries in his last 7 full seasons in SF. I expect RGIII to learn to use his feet to get people open like Montana, because RGIII has proven to be a student of the game. He has shown that he has the aptitude to understand what it takes to play at the next level.

Final question? Just curious. How do you define a running QB?

Is Steve Young a Running QB or a QB that runs? I define him as a QB that runs, but I would bet that RGIII learns faster than Steve to learn to use his feet to extend plays.


Steve Young 1993 season rushing stats/1994 SB MVP

69 carries 407 YdS 2 TDs 35 Long 5.9 Carreer high carries was 76.

Joe Montana 1983 Season

61 Carries 284 YDS 2 TDS 18 Long 4.7 Career high carries.


All that being said, right now without the benefit of the of combine and pro days, I would have to go with Luck because he is the pro ready right now, but I am keeping an open mind as the off season progresses to the draft. I like RGIII and if he shows that to the scouts that he is comfortable in the pro style O and all the verbage - hey, I go with RGIII.

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204841

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=3561

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... unSt00.htm

Don't like RGIII do ya?

I may be in the minority, and I maybe wrong. The kid is definitely a great athlete, and can throw bullets. I just never lean towards running QBs ... and yes, he is a running QB ... but more so than running out right ... I was really referring to his propensity to bail out and scramble. And yes, being a spread guy with little work under center brings old memories of Jason Campbell and his complaints that he loses sight of his receivers when playing under center instead of the shotgun ... and those comments came from Campbell in his third year playing.

Then, there is the Heisman Trophy Curse. Haven't heard about the curse? Well, since 1970, when Jim Plunkett won it, and went on to be successful, 17 other QBs who have won the Heisman since then have not been so lucky. How unlucky? Those 17 have ZERO Super Bowl appearances collectively, and only two playoff wins. And none of them except for Tim Tebow and Doug Flutie have winning records as QBs (that list will shorten to 1 QB, real soon).

Am I being overly superstitious? Maybe. But I'm just looking at the big picture, and 40 years of history that says "stay away from Heisman Trophy Winning QBs" and beware of college QBs with outrageously great stats who like to run.

DarthMonk wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him.

So far so good.

RayNAustin wrote:And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

We differ here. RGIII looks to move to throw. He's not Aaron Rodgers but he looks down field while moving like Rodgers does and seeks to throw first like Rodgers does for sure. He is a QB who can run - not a runner who can throw. He is not prone to bail out the way Vick and many others do.

Vick himself can't take the pounding Vick does. He (Vick) runs too much. RGIII is 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier and looks to pass first. RGIII is same height and weight as Rodgers. How about Vick is an RGIII impersanator without RGIII's size???!!!

Vick takes off and runs on 23% of his drops.

Rodgers does this on 11% of his.

RGIII does so on 30% of his in college.

Vick did so on 40% of his college drops.

I'd expect RGIII's running rate to halve like Vick's did. It better!

RayNAustin wrote:But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

The rest here is mostly opinion and is quite defendable.

DarthMonk

+1

RayNAustin wrote:

Red_One43 wrote:RayNAustin wrote:

RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

.

I certainly understand you push for Luck, pro style QBs on average make the transition to the NFL easier, but man, do I disagree with you on your assessment with RGIII

Great athlete? great college QB? - they said that stuff about Cam. RG already is ahead of Cam in QB skills. Cam has that will to succeed, he did those steps necessary to prepare him for the NFL.

Comparing Michael Vick and RGIII - where is the comparison? Vick impersonator? Really? RGIII is light years ahead of Vick coming out of college. No comparison in QB skills and RG doens't have Vick's running skills - who does?

RGIII
Senior YR - 267 ATT 369 COMP 3998 YDS 72.4 PCT 36 TDS 6 INT 192.3

Vick -

Senior YR 97 179 1439 54.2 9 7

Is RGIII a running QB or a spread QB who runs by design?

Check out the college rushing stats for Dalton and Smith. They are not seen as running QBs in the NFL. You would have a better argument if you said that spread QBs transition to the NFL has not been as successful as those in pro sets.

Just like Luck is something above average. When it comes to spread QBs, RGIII is something special because he has the QB skill set that spread guys like Vick, Newton, Dalton and Smith didn't have coming out of College. Check out RGIII's accuracy.

One thing you do have a point is RGIII is not compact like Vick and he is not big like the other QBs, but why seel RGIII short, and believe that he cannot be a pocket passer like Dalton and Smith made the transition.

Even Montana averaged 43 carries in his last 7 full seasons in SF. I expect RGIII to learn to use his feet to get people open like Montana, because RGIII has proven to be a student of the game. He has shown that he has the aptitude to understand what it takes to play at the next level.

Final question? Just curious. How do you define a running QB?

Is Steve Young a Running QB or a QB that runs? I define him as a QB that runs, but I would bet that RGIII learns faster than Steve to learn to use his feet to extend plays.


Steve Young 1993 season rushing stats/1994 SB MVP

69 carries 407 YdS 2 TDs 35 Long 5.9 Carreer high carries was 76.

Joe Montana 1983 Season

61 Carries 284 YDS 2 TDS 18 Long 4.7 Career high carries.


All that being said, right now without the benefit of the of combine and pro days, I would have to go with Luck because he is the pro ready right now, but I am keeping an open mind as the off season progresses to the draft. I like RGIII and if he shows that to the scouts that he is comfortable in the pro style O and all the verbage - hey, I go with RGIII.

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204841

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/Playe ... id=1204868

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=3561

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/p ... unSt00.htm

Don't like RGIII do ya?

I may be in the minority, and I maybe wrong. The kid is definitely a great athlete, and can throw bullets. I just never lean towards running QBs ... and yes, he is a running QB ... but more so than running out right ... I was really referring to his propensity to bail out and scramble. And yes, being a spread guy with little work under center brings old memories of Jason Campbell and his complaints that he loses sight of his receivers when playing under center instead of the shotgun ... and those comments came from Campbell in his third year playing.

Then, there is the Heisman Trophy Curse. Haven't heard about the curse? Well, since 1970, when Jim Plunkett won it, and went on to be successful, 17 other QBs who have won the Heisman since then have not been so lucky. How unlucky? Those 17 have ZERO Super Bowl appearances collectively, and only two playoff wins. And none of them except for Tim Tebow and Doug Flutie have winning records as QBs (that list will shorten to 1 QB, real soon).

Am I being overly superstitious? Maybe. But I'm just looking at the big picture, and 40 years of history that says "stay away from Heisman Trophy Winning QBs" and beware of college QBs with outrageously great stats who like to run.

Ray, I can't argue with you on your points. They are good. I am not superstitious either, but man, aren't there some similarities with Peyton. He returns to school and is the favorite to win the Heisman and doesn't win, but the rest is history. Luck returns to school and is the Heisman favorite and doesn't win and we expect him to make history. We may not agree on RGIII, but we certainly agree on Luck and right now, he is who I am picking - If we can creatively structure a trade in which we do not have to sell the house. I am looking for a Herschell Walker type deal that isn't so onesided.

RayNAustin wrote:

Countertrey wrote:Ray'n said:

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man"

I get your greater point... I'd just note that Ryan Leaf was screaming just as loudly... it was, essentially the marketing genius of Archie that resulted in Peyton being selected #1. Leaf was viewed as every bit the equal of Peyton at the time.

How'd that turn out? My point is, there is no such thing as a sure thing... no matter how sure it looks.

There's no guarantee that Aaron Rodgers won't get run over by a beer truck either, or Tom Brady suffering a Joe Theisman injury. But Ryan Leaf is not the same. The Skill Level was there for sure ... but he had major Character issues that teams and the analysts chose to ignore. What's even more surprising is that he was picked by one of the best personnel talent evaluators EVER .... Bobby Beathard.

But, because of Ryan Leaf, more consideration is now given to a player's character ... his off field conduct as well as his team oriented commitment. These issues plagued Jamarcus Russel ... lazy, no commitment ... no work ethic. And some ego issues are still in the background of Cam Newton. So far, it hasn't hurt him or his performance, but there are danger signs.

There are no issues like this with Andrew Luck.

As I said, I get your greater point... I even think it's likely that you are right... but I don't think the potential outweighs the incredible cost to get him, in light of the fact that there are no guarantees. Look how long it took NO to recover from the Ricky Williams deal.

Now, if they pay the price, and pull off whatever it takes to get him, I'll be happy... but if he doesn't pan... we are SOOOOOOOO screwed...

Keep in mind... there are no danger signs with RG III either... and he'll be a lot less expensive. The pay off won't be as quick... but it's just as likely to be there as it is with Luck. Maybe not to the same degree... but it's there.

SkinsJock wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:
You're coming around.

Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him. And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

ACTUALLY - you and RED_ONE have made me look at this 'deal' ....

I'll admit it - I am 'coming around' ..... do you think these guys can put 'this' together?

it might just be worth it - it stll scares me a lot though


i just worry that we're putting it all on 1 player - admittedly at the most important position

Hey SkinsJock, no worries. I think that you are spot on to trust the FO. They will not spend the house and leave nothing for the future, but do trust the FO to try something creative to make a run at Luck or perhaps RGIII. The FO has shown that they know how to back off, if the deal gets too rich.

OK, I trudged through the first-round draft lists for the last 25 years. Somebody should tally the hits and misses, but my impression, as I was looking at who was drafted, is that about two out of three first-round QBs flat fails.

Remembering the Shuler-year, I suggest that we all ignore the draft spot and who might be available. Concentrate now, and you'll go nuts before training camp starts.

Here they are (first number is the overall selection. Rex Grossman, for instance, was the 22nd pick overall in 2003):

2011
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB
10 Jacksonville Jaguars Blaine Gabbert QB
12 Minnesota Vikings Christian Ponder QB

2010
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB
25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow QB

2009
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB Kansas State

2008
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College
18 Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco QB Delaware

2007
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State
22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame

2006
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas
10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart QB USC
11 Denver Broncos Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt

2005
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah
24 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers QB California
25 Washington Redskins Jason Campbell QB Auburn

2004
1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning QB Mississippi
4 New York Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio)
22 Buffalo Bills J.P. Losman QB Tulane

2003
1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer QB USC
7 Jacksonville Jaguars Byron Leftwich QB Marshall
19 Baltimore Ravens Kyle Boller QB California
22 Chicago Bears Rex Grossman QB Florida

2002
1 Houston Texans David Carr QB Fresno State
3 Detroit Lions Joey Harrington QB Oregon
32 Washington Redskins Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane

2001
1 Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech

2000
18 New York Jets Chad Pennington QB Marshall

1999
1 Cleveland Browns Tim Couch QB Kentucky
2 Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse
3 Cincinnati Bengals Akili Smith QB Oregon
11 Minnesota Vikings Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida
12 Chicago Bears Cade McNown QB UCLA

1998
1 Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning QB Tennessee
2 San Diego Chargers Ryan Leaf QB Washington State

1997
26 San Francisco 49ers Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech

1996
(First QB was Tony Banks, in the second round)
1995
3 Houston Oilers Steve McNair QB Alcorn State
5 Carolina Panthers Kerry Collins QB Penn State

1994
3 Washington Redskins Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State

1993
1 New England Patriots Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State
2 Seattle Seahawks Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame

1992
6 Cincinnati Bengals David Klingler QB Houston
25 Denver Broncos Tommy Maddox QB UCLA

1991
24 Los Angeles Raiders Todd Marinovich QB USC

1990
1 Indianapolis Colts Jeff George QB Illinois
7 Detroit Lions Andre Ware QB Houston

1989
1 Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman QB UCLA

1988 (none in 1st round)

1987
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vinny Testaverde QB Miami (Fla.)
6 St. Louis Cardinals Kelly Stouffer QB Colorado State
13 Atlanta Falcons Chris Miller QB Oregon
26 Chicago Bears Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan

1986
3 Houston Oilers Jim Everett QB Purdue
12 Detroit Lions Chuck Long QB Iowa

...and someone else can check the second round!

SkinsJock wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:
You're coming around.

Here's my main point of all this rambling I've done. Generally, if you look at the overall stats for success rate of number 1 pick QBs ... about half of them turn out good to great. The other half average to total busts. That 50% success rate is one of the age old mysteries and risks in securing a franchise QB. It's absolutely a gamble, if it were easy, EVERYONE would have an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

Once in a while, guys come along like Manning, and Rivers that SCREAM "I'm the man" ! That's Luck ... and my opinion is, he's probably an 80-90% type, rather than the standard 50/50 coin flip. To elaborate ... I wouldn't trade any picks for Barkley or RGIII ... both have potential to become good QBs in the NFL if you give them a couple of years of grooming ... but their potential to become Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers types I don't think is anywhere close to Andrew Luck, and therefore, I might use my #1 pick on Barkley (but he's not coming out), but I wouldn't trade up to get him. And I flat out wouldn't draft RGIII at all. RGIII is a great athlete, and an excellent college QB. But he's a runner, that is too prone to bail out, and running QBs don't have much history of success in the NFL. He's a Michael Vick impersonator without Vick's ability, and is too slightly built to take the pounding Vick takes. He's not a franchise QB, and neither is Jones.

But even if Barkley and RGIII were coming out, Luck is still the only legitimate franchise level QB of the bunch ... the rest of those guys are potentially good QBs, but not likely great QBs, which is why I think we should break the bank for Luck.

Is it a risk? All draft picks are risks. You just measure how big the risk is. And with Luck, the risk is as minimal as has been the case since Manning or Rivers were drafted.

ACTUALLY - you and RED_ONE have made me look at this 'deal' ....

I'll admit it - I am 'coming around' ..... do you think these guys can put 'this' together?

it might just be worth it - it stll scares me a lot though


i just worry that we're putting it all on 1 player - admittedly at the most important position

I really don't have a feel for this management team, and I certainly don't get their tactical approach to QBs, SO FAR. But I'm hoping that Dad decides to petition Bruce to go get Luck to help make Son's offense a screaming success.

Surely by now, Mike has to realize that the Rex & Beck show is not going to magically turn around, and that they need an exceptional talent at the QB spot. Will they pay the 3 or 4 #1's that it will likely cost to pry that pick from the colts? I have no clue, but I do hope they do. And believe me, I normally wouldn't be an advocate of such moves .... but with the Royster and Helu team .... solid if less than spectacular WRs .... and two great TEs, and a defense that is getting better and will even be better next season, I think it's the absolute right move to make.

And it's not critical that Luck come in and perform as a pro bowl rookie of the year right out of the blocks ... he just needs to play well and improve. Peyton Manning was far from perfect his first year too. But I could definitely see him come in and play like Dalton, if not as well as Newton ... and that's all the Redskins need to improve to a 9-7 team or better.

Why I think Luck is the right guy is his over-the-top football intelligence and familiarity with a pro style offense. He's got the talent to learn and run Kyle's offense, and that is a prerequisite, because it's doubtful that they would alter the offense to suit the player. His accuracy is another key, and his pre snap reads are beyond most college QBs.

The Redskins don't have time (Shanahan doesn't have time) to groom a rookie for a couple of years ... which is why Luck would fit so well .... he's day one ready and given our situation with Grossman still making rookie mistakes, and Beck seems totally lost out there, Luck would surely be an improvement, even early on.

The risk is small, when you look at the QBs we now have. Luck has to be better ... even if he doesn't become another Peyton Manning, he just needs to be Good to be a major improvement over what we have now. But if he does become a great one, can you imagine how great it would be to actually have that dominant offense that we haven't had for 20 years?

Thanks for the the list, Welch.

What comes to my mind in all this discussion about pass/fail are Tebow, Smith and Newton.

We know Alex Smith wasn't successful until Harbaugh comes along and doesn't ask him to do what he can't do. The guy just won a division championship.

Tebow clearly was a bust headed to nowhere as a QB until Fox stopped asking him to do what he couldn't do.

Cam Newton was never asked to do what isn't his strength. Rivera tailored the O to fit his strengths from day one.

How may NFL failures were failures because they were in the wrong system?

How many QBs were successful because they were with the right Coach - McNabb with Andy Reid. What if McNabb goes to the Browns and Reid takes Couch?

McNabb can play for Andy, but can't play for the Shanahans or Frazier.

What if the Colts don't allow Manning to run his own show? What if Peyton ran his own show coming out the gate, would he have a pedestrian rookie year?

This year we watch three Head Coaches take QBs and set up an offense to help them and the team succeed. Perhaps this is the way to go.

Since we have Shanny and Kyle as coaches, and with all of the above said, I think that we better get Luck, because the Shannies aren't budging. Hit the Highway, Donnie and take my draft choices with you and ainta changin' for no one, no how!

I think our best hope is that St. Louis gets the No. 1 pick. If the Redskins can't swing a deal to get Luck from St. Louis, they might be willing to trade Bradford to us and keep Luck for themselves. If I was St. Louis, that's what I would do because Bradford won the Heisman Trophy and he has a lingering injury.

I understand the success rate of first round QBs in the draft

this is Andrew Luck - it's a gamble but this kid just does not look like he's going to fail

all that being said - it's a hell of a lot to give up to hopefully get the next great QB




I'll go out on a limb and predict that Aaron Rodgers is the MVP this year

I'll also hognosticate that the Packers do not win the Super Bowl because they're not the best team

How about a current bench warmer or someone sitting on the sofa.....I mean, it wouldn't cost much, RIGHT....???

David Carr
Chase Daniels
Charlie Whitehurst
Jarmarcus Russell
Matt Flynn

.....how about Colt Brennan......or Jason Campbell...?

Surely, I jest......

welch wrote:OK, I trudged through the first-round draft lists for the last 25 years. Somebody should tally the hits and misses, but my impression, as I was looking at who was drafted, is that about two out of three first-round QBs flat fails.

Remembering the Shuler-year, I suggest that we all ignore the draft spot and who might be available. Concentrate now, and you'll go nuts before training camp starts.

Here they are (first number is the overall selection. Rex Grossman, for instance, was the 22nd pick overall in 2003):

2011
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB (F)(E)
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB
10 Jacksonville Jaguars Blaine Gabbert QB
12 Minnesota Vikings Christian Ponder QB

2010
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB (F)
25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow QB

2009
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia (F)(E)
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC (F)
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB Kansas State

2008
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College (F)
18 Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco QB Delaware

2007
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State (B)
22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame

2006
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas (B)
10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart QB USC (B)
11 Denver Broncos Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt (E)

2005
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah (F?)
24 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers QB California (E)
25 Washington Redskins Jason Campbell QB Auburn

2004
1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning QB Mississippi (F) (E)
4 New York Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State (F) (E)
11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio)(E)
22 Buffalo Bills J.P. Losman QB Tulane

2003
1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer QB USC (F) (E)
7 Jacksonville Jaguars Byron Leftwich QB Marshall (F)
19 Baltimore Ravens Kyle Boller QB California
22 Chicago Bears Rex Grossman QB Florida

2002
1 Houston Texans David Carr QB Fresno State (B)
3 Detroit Lions Joey Harrington QB Oregon (B)
32 Washington Redskins Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane

2001
1 Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech (F) (E)

2000
18 New York Jets Chad Pennington QB Marshall

1999
1 Cleveland Browns Tim Couch QB Kentucky (B)
2 Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse (F) (E)
3 Cincinnati Bengals Akili Smith QB Oregon (B)
11 Minnesota Vikings Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida
12 Chicago Bears Cade McNown QB UCLA

1998
1 Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning QB Tennessee (F) (E)
2 San Diego Chargers Ryan Leaf QB Washington State (B)

1997
26 San Francisco 49ers Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech

1996
(First QB was Tony Banks, in the second round)
1995
3 Houston Oilers Steve McNair QB Alcorn State
5 Carolina Panthers Kerry Collins QB Penn State

1994
3 Washington Redskins Heath Shuler QB Tennessee (B)
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State (F)

1993
1 New England Patriots Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State (F)(E)
2 Seattle Seahawks Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame (B)

1992
6 Cincinnati Bengals David Klingler QB Houston (B)
25 Denver Broncos Tommy Maddox QB UCLA

1991
24 Los Angeles Raiders Todd Marinovich QB USC

1990
1 Indianapolis Colts Jeff George QB Illinois (B)
7 Detroit Lions Andre Ware QB Houston (B)

1989
1 Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman QB UCLA (F) (E)

1988 (none in 1st round)

1987
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vinny Testaverde QB Miami (Fla.) (F)
6 St. Louis Cardinals Kelly Stouffer QB Colorado State (B)
13 Atlanta Falcons Chris Miller QB Oregon
26 Chicago Bears Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan

1986
3 Houston Oilers Jim Everett QB Purdue (F)
12 Detroit Lions Chuck Long QB Iowa


The Bold text indicates a QB who had a career with varying degrees of success, while the underlined were unremarkable or total busts. I've labeled those in the top 10 picks that turned out to be very good to elite with an E, and the real busts with a B.

First ... we have 30 Bold and 25 Underlined. 54% of first rounders had varying degrees of success.

Of those taken with the top 10 picks, there were 18 Successes 14 Busts (56% success)

Of those that were taken in the top 10 there were 10 elite and 14 busts (41%)

So you have more total busts (59%) with QBs taken with the top 10 picks.

You have successful QBs taken in the first round of 54%, which increases slightly to 56% for those taken in the top 10 picks.

Most of the 2009-2010 are too early to tell either way. Newton and Stafford appear to be the only clear elite talent ... Bradford is iffy but that may be due to the circumstances with the Rams.

Now the real interesting number is the top pick overall for elites ( 8 ) and busts (4). That's the best guarantee of getting an Elite QB ... the first pick overall is twice as likely to be a winner .... everything outside the first pick is almost a flip of the coin.

This is why I say that the better money should be placed on Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick. Almost a 70% chance of being elite instead of a bust.

tribeofjudah wrote:How about a current bench warmer or someone sitting on the sofa.....I mean, it wouldn't cost much, RIGHT....???

David Carr
Chase Daniels
Charlie Whitehurst
Jarmarcus Russell
Matt Flynn

.....how about Colt Brennan......or Jason Campbell...?

Surely, I jest......

Uh, you left out my favorite - Mark Brunell.

RayNAustin wrote:

welch wrote:OK, I trudged through the first-round draft lists for the last 25 years. Somebody should tally the hits and misses, but my impression, as I was looking at who was drafted, is that about two out of three first-round QBs flat fails.

Remembering the Shuler-year, I suggest that we all ignore the draft spot and who might be available. Concentrate now, and you'll go nuts before training camp starts.

Here they are (first number is the overall selection. Rex Grossman, for instance, was the 22nd pick overall in 2003):

2011
1 Carolina Panthers Cam Newton QB (F)(E)
8 Tennessee Titans Jake Locker QB
10 Jacksonville Jaguars Blaine Gabbert QB
12 Minnesota Vikings Christian Ponder QB

2010
1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB (F)
25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow QB

2009
1 Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford QB Georgia (F)(E)
5 New York Jets Mark Sanchez QB USC (F)
17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Josh Freeman QB Kansas State

2008
3 Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan QB Boston College (F)
18 Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco QB Delaware

2007
1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State (B)
22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame

2006
3 Tennessee Titans Vince Young QB Texas (B)
10 Arizona Cardinals Matt Leinart QB USC (B)
11 Denver Broncos Jay Cutler QB Vanderbilt (E)

2005
1 San Francisco 49ers Alex Smith QB Utah (F?)
24 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers QB California (E)
25 Washington Redskins Jason Campbell QB Auburn

2004
1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning QB Mississippi (F) (E)
4 New York Giants Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State (F) (E)
11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami (Ohio)(E)
22 Buffalo Bills J.P. Losman QB Tulane

2003
1 Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer QB USC (F) (E)
7 Jacksonville Jaguars Byron Leftwich QB Marshall (F)
19 Baltimore Ravens Kyle Boller QB California
22 Chicago Bears Rex Grossman QB Florida

2002
1 Houston Texans David Carr QB Fresno State (B)
3 Detroit Lions Joey Harrington QB Oregon (B)
32 Washington Redskins Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane

2001
1 Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech (F) (E)

2000
18 New York Jets Chad Pennington QB Marshall

1999
1 Cleveland Browns Tim Couch QB Kentucky (B)
2 Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse (F) (E)
3 Cincinnati Bengals Akili Smith QB Oregon (B)
11 Minnesota Vikings Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida
12 Chicago Bears Cade McNown QB UCLA

1998
1 Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning QB Tennessee (F) (E)
2 San Diego Chargers Ryan Leaf QB Washington State (B)

1997
26 San Francisco 49ers Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech

1996
(First QB was Tony Banks, in the second round)
1995
3 Houston Oilers Steve McNair QB Alcorn State
5 Carolina Panthers Kerry Collins QB Penn State

1994
3 Washington Redskins Heath Shuler QB Tennessee (B)
6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State (F)

1993
1 New England Patriots Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State (F)(E)
2 Seattle Seahawks Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame (B)

1992
6 Cincinnati Bengals David Klingler QB Houston (B)
25 Denver Broncos Tommy Maddox QB UCLA

1991
24 Los Angeles Raiders Todd Marinovich QB USC

1990
1 Indianapolis Colts Jeff George QB Illinois (B)
7 Detroit Lions Andre Ware QB Houston (B)

1989
1 Dallas Cowboys Troy Aikman QB UCLA (F) (E)

1988 (none in 1st round)

1987
1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vinny Testaverde QB Miami (Fla.) (F)
6 St. Louis Cardinals Kelly Stouffer QB Colorado State (B)
13 Atlanta Falcons Chris Miller QB Oregon
26 Chicago Bears Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan

1986
3 Houston Oilers Jim Everett QB Purdue (F)
12 Detroit Lions Chuck Long QB Iowa


The Bold text indicates a QB who had a career with varying degrees of success, while the underlined were unremarkable or total busts. I've labeled those in the top 10 picks that turned out to be very good to elite with an E, and the real busts with a B.

First ... we have 30 Bold and 25 Underlined. 54% of first rounders had varying degrees of success.

Of those taken with the top 10 picks, there were 18 Successes 14 Busts (56% success)

Of those that were taken in the top 10 there were 10 elite and 14 busts (41%)

So you have more total busts (59%) with QBs taken with the top 10 picks.

You have successful QBs taken in the first round of 54%, which increases slightly to 56% for those taken in the top 10 picks.

Most of the 2009-2010 are too early to tell either way. Newton and Stafford appear to be the only clear elite talent ... Bradford is iffy but that may be due to the circumstances with the Rams.

Now the real interesting number is the top pick overall for elites ( 8 ) and busts (4). That's the best guarantee of getting an Elite QB ... the first pick overall is twice as likely to be a winner .... everything outside the first pick is almost a flip of the coin.

This is why I say that the better money should be placed on Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick. Almost a 70% chance of being elite instead of a bust.

Hey, Whatabout Tebow? He is having success. By naming Tommy Maddox, you have given Shanny a 100% on drafting QBs that have had some success.