The-Hogs.net - Washington Football Discussion, Redskins to Commanders Era

frankcal20 wrote:

campbell haters beware
Category: redskins — b murf @ 11:11 am


This isn’t breaking news or anything, but Washington Redskins fans love a quarterback controversy. Always have. Always will.

If you’ve been in the D.C. area for football season, you know this.

That being said, if you’re convinced that Jason Campbell was the only reason the Redskins fell apart last season, you’re a sad cliché.

We’ve always felt Campbell was a solid quarterback. In our eyes he’s good, but not great, and with the proper tools around him, is more than capable of getting the job done. But until this point, that was more of a gut feeling than anything else. We didn’t really have any legitimate proof to back up our stance.

That all changed recently when we picked up a copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. For those not familiar, this book is one of the most ridiculously thorough resources available to fans who really want to learn about football. These guys chart and research everything. If you can dream it up, it’s probably in the book.

We openly admit that we’re homers for Campbell. But the Football Outsiders crew has no such allegiance. If the numbers showed he couldn’t get the job done, they’d have no problem saying so. Even though we’re fans of Campbell, even we were surprised at what we learned.

Here’s what Redskins fans know about last season: Campbell completed 62.3 percent of his passes, threw for 3,245 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions and had a QB rating of 84.3.

Here’s what most fans don’t know about last season (again, courtesy of Football Outsiders Almanac):

1. Campbell’s receivers led the league in dropped passes with 39. We repeat – Redskins receivers dropped more passes than anyone else in football in 2008.
2. Receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El both ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in dropped passes. Moss ranked second with 12 (behind only Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards with 15), while Randle El was tied for ninth with nine drops.
3. Running back Clinton Portis only had six drops. Compared to Moss and Randle El that seems okay, but he was actually third in the league in percentage of dropped passes (17 percent).
4. Campbell was also in the top 10 in the NFL last season in passes defended with 50 – meaning if Campbell threw a “jump ball,” more times than not, the defender beat the receiver on the play.
5. Campbell was sixth best in the league in percentage of overthrown passes. He overthrew his wideouts 18 times, which works out to 3.6 percent. Conversely, Derek Anderson of the Browns overthrew his receivers a league-worst nine percent of the time.
6. Campbell was second best in the NFL in underthrown passes (6.4 percent), trailing only Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans (4.9 percent). It should also be noted that Campbell attempted 126 more passes than the injury-prone Schaub. Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell led the league in underthrown passes (16.5 percent).
7. Campbell was fifth in the NFL in QB hits with 47, and tied for third in quarterback knockdowns with 88. In fact, Campbell got knocked down more than 16 percent of the time he dropped back to pass, which was eighth most in the league.
8. In spite of all of this, Campbell was eighth in the NFL in quarterback accuracy at 85.7. This statistic factors in passes that are not thrown ahead or behind, overthrown or underthrown or out of bounds.

Now let us change gears for a minute.

In the first eight games of 2008, Portis rushed for a league-best 944 yards. He averaged five yards per carry and racked up seven touchdowns. In the second half of the season, Portis rushed for 543 yards at 3.5 yards per carry, and had just two touchdowns. Did Portis suddenly forget how to play the position? Were people calling for Ladell Betts or Rock Cartwright (the Colt Brennan of Redskins running backs) to supplant Portis as the feature back? Of course not.

Most fans understood that the offensive line was so bad down the stretch last season that, many times, Portis had to make magic happen just to get back to the line of scrimmage.

And let’s not forget, Jim Zorn told Sports Illustrated this offseason that he had to change his playing calling last year because he knew there were plays in his playbook that the offensive line simply couldn’t do their job long enough to set up.

People heard those comments and Portis got the benefit of the doubt. But because this town simply cannot help but obsess over a potential quarterback controversy, Campbell never got the same respect (even if he played behind the same putrid offensive line). Here’s how Campbell fared during the same stretch:

In the first eight games, Campbell completed 66 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,754 yards, with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In the final eight games, Campbell completed 59 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,491, with five touchdowns and six interceptions.

What’s more, Campbell’s yards per pass attempt dropped from 7.6 yards the first half of the season to 5.4 yards per attempt down the stretch. That only reinforces our belief that Campbell simply didn’t have enough time to look downfield, so he routinely had to settle with check downs and dump-offs.

So, to recap, because of a substandard offensive line, Campbell faced as much pressure as any quarterback in the league. And yet, statistically speaking, he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. His throws were almost always on target, but Campbell’s receivers dropped more passes than anyone else.

His offensive line failed him. His receivers failed him. And at the end of the day, fans (and even his own front office) figured it was easier to blame Campbell than to admit there are much larger problems with Washington’s offense. It makes sense though. It’s easier (and cheaper) to replace one guy rather than half the offense – even if he’s not the problem.

Our only hope is that after this season, Campbell finds himself in a city where he’s truly appreciated and is surrounded with enough talent to show critics exactly what he’s capable of. Just know that when it happens, we’ll be here saying, “Told you so.”

We’ve said our piece, now let’s open it up to Campbell haters …

Really good article. Stat's don't lie.

I have yet to hear anyone say - except Mark Rypien say that Campbell does not have what it takes to do great things in this team.

frankcal20 wrote:

campbell haters beware
Category: redskins — b murf @ 11:11 am


This isn’t breaking news or anything, but Washington Redskins fans love a quarterback controversy. Always have. Always will.

If you’ve been in the D.C. area for football season, you know this.

That being said, if you’re convinced that Jason Campbell was the only reason the Redskins fell apart last season, you’re a sad cliché.

We’ve always felt Campbell was a solid quarterback. In our eyes he’s good, but not great, and with the proper tools around him, is more than capable of getting the job done. But until this point, that was more of a gut feeling than anything else. We didn’t really have any legitimate proof to back up our stance.

That all changed recently when we picked up a copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. For those not familiar, this book is one of the most ridiculously thorough resources available to fans who really want to learn about football. These guys chart and research everything. If you can dream it up, it’s probably in the book.

We openly admit that we’re homers for Campbell. But the Football Outsiders crew has no such allegiance. If the numbers showed he couldn’t get the job done, they’d have no problem saying so. Even though we’re fans of Campbell, even we were surprised at what we learned.

Here’s what Redskins fans know about last season: Campbell completed 62.3 percent of his passes, threw for 3,245 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions and had a QB rating of 84.3.

Here’s what most fans don’t know about last season (again, courtesy of Football Outsiders Almanac):

1. Campbell’s receivers led the league in dropped passes with 39. We repeat – Redskins receivers dropped more passes than anyone else in football in 2008.
2. Receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El both ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in dropped passes. Moss ranked second with 12 (behind only Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards with 15), while Randle El was tied for ninth with nine drops.
3. Running back Clinton Portis only had six drops. Compared to Moss and Randle El that seems okay, but he was actually third in the league in percentage of dropped passes (17 percent).
4. Campbell was also in the top 10 in the NFL last season in passes defended with 50 – meaning if Campbell threw a “jump ball,” more times than not, the defender beat the receiver on the play.
5. Campbell was sixth best in the league in percentage of overthrown passes. He overthrew his wideouts 18 times, which works out to 3.6 percent. Conversely, Derek Anderson of the Browns overthrew his receivers a league-worst nine percent of the time.
6. Campbell was second best in the NFL in underthrown passes (6.4 percent), trailing only Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans (4.9 percent). It should also be noted that Campbell attempted 126 more passes than the injury-prone Schaub. Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell led the league in underthrown passes (16.5 percent).
7. Campbell was fifth in the NFL in QB hits with 47, and tied for third in quarterback knockdowns with 88. In fact, Campbell got knocked down more than 16 percent of the time he dropped back to pass, which was eighth most in the league.
8. In spite of all of this, Campbell was eighth in the NFL in quarterback accuracy at 85.7. This statistic factors in passes that are not thrown ahead or behind, overthrown or underthrown or out of bounds.

Now let us change gears for a minute.

In the first eight games of 2008, Portis rushed for a league-best 944 yards. He averaged five yards per carry and racked up seven touchdowns. In the second half of the season, Portis rushed for 543 yards at 3.5 yards per carry, and had just two touchdowns. Did Portis suddenly forget how to play the position? Were people calling for Ladell Betts or Rock Cartwright (the Colt Brennan of Redskins running backs) to supplant Portis as the feature back? Of course not.

Most fans understood that the offensive line was so bad down the stretch last season that, many times, Portis had to make magic happen just to get back to the line of scrimmage.

And let’s not forget, Jim Zorn told Sports Illustrated this offseason that he had to change his playing calling last year because he knew there were plays in his playbook that the offensive line simply couldn’t do their job long enough to set up.

People heard those comments and Portis got the benefit of the doubt. But because this town simply cannot help but obsess over a potential quarterback controversy, Campbell never got the same respect (even if he played behind the same putrid offensive line). Here’s how Campbell fared during the same stretch:

In the first eight games, Campbell completed 66 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,754 yards, with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In the final eight games, Campbell completed 59 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,491, with five touchdowns and six interceptions.

What’s more, Campbell’s yards per pass attempt dropped from 7.6 yards the first half of the season to 5.4 yards per attempt down the stretch. That only reinforces our belief that Campbell simply didn’t have enough time to look downfield, so he routinely had to settle with check downs and dump-offs.

So, to recap, because of a substandard offensive line, Campbell faced as much pressure as any quarterback in the league. And yet, statistically speaking, he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. His throws were almost always on target, but Campbell’s receivers dropped more passes than anyone else.

His offensive line failed him. His receivers failed him. And at the end of the day, fans (and even his own front office) figured it was easier to blame Campbell than to admit there are much larger problems with Washington’s offense. It makes sense though. It’s easier (and cheaper) to replace one guy rather than half the offense – even if he’s not the problem.

Our only hope is that after this season, Campbell finds himself in a city where he’s truly appreciated and is surrounded with enough talent to show critics exactly what he’s capable of. Just know that when it happens, we’ll be here saying, “Told you so.”

We’ve said our piece, now let’s open it up to Campbell haters …

Really good article. Stat's don't lie.

frankcal20 wrote: I don't think that Brees or Brady could have put up much better numbers than he did. There just wasn't much he could have done.

frankcal20 wrote:

campbell haters beware
Category: redskins — b murf @ 11:11 am


This isn’t breaking news or anything, but Washington Redskins fans love a quarterback controversy. Always have. Always will.

If you’ve been in the D.C. area for football season, you know this.

That being said, if you’re convinced that Jason Campbell was the only reason the Redskins fell apart last season, you’re a sad cliché.

We’ve always felt Campbell was a solid quarterback. In our eyes he’s good, but not great, and with the proper tools around him, is more than capable of getting the job done. But until this point, that was more of a gut feeling than anything else. We didn’t really have any legitimate proof to back up our stance.

That all changed recently when we picked up a copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. For those not familiar, this book is one of the most ridiculously thorough resources available to fans who really want to learn about football. These guys chart and research everything. If you can dream it up, it’s probably in the book.

We openly admit that we’re homers for Campbell. But the Football Outsiders crew has no such allegiance. If the numbers showed he couldn’t get the job done, they’d have no problem saying so. Even though we’re fans of Campbell, even we were surprised at what we learned.

Here’s what Redskins fans know about last season: Campbell completed 62.3 percent of his passes, threw for 3,245 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions and had a QB rating of 84.3.

Here’s what most fans don’t know about last season (again, courtesy of Football Outsiders Almanac):

1. Campbell’s receivers led the league in dropped passes with 39. We repeat – Redskins receivers dropped more passes than anyone else in football in 2008.
2. Receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El both ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in dropped passes. Moss ranked second with 12 (behind only Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards with 15), while Randle El was tied for ninth with nine drops.
3. Running back Clinton Portis only had six drops. Compared to Moss and Randle El that seems okay, but he was actually third in the league in percentage of dropped passes (17 percent).
4. Campbell was also in the top 10 in the NFL last season in passes defended with 50 – meaning if Campbell threw a “jump ball,” more times than not, the defender beat the receiver on the play.
5. Campbell was sixth best in the league in percentage of overthrown passes. He overthrew his wideouts 18 times, which works out to 3.6 percent. Conversely, Derek Anderson of the Browns overthrew his receivers a league-worst nine percent of the time.
6. Campbell was second best in the NFL in underthrown passes (6.4 percent), trailing only Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans (4.9 percent). It should also be noted that Campbell attempted 126 more passes than the injury-prone Schaub. Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell led the league in underthrown passes (16.5 percent).
7. Campbell was fifth in the NFL in QB hits with 47, and tied for third in quarterback knockdowns with 88. In fact, Campbell got knocked down more than 16 percent of the time he dropped back to pass, which was eighth most in the league.
8. In spite of all of this, Campbell was eighth in the NFL in quarterback accuracy at 85.7. This statistic factors in passes that are not thrown ahead or behind, overthrown or underthrown or out of bounds.

Now let us change gears for a minute.

In the first eight games of 2008, Portis rushed for a league-best 944 yards. He averaged five yards per carry and racked up seven touchdowns. In the second half of the season, Portis rushed for 543 yards at 3.5 yards per carry, and had just two touchdowns. Did Portis suddenly forget how to play the position? Were people calling for Ladell Betts or Rock Cartwright (the Colt Brennan of Redskins running backs) to supplant Portis as the feature back? Of course not.

Most fans understood that the offensive line was so bad down the stretch last season that, many times, Portis had to make magic happen just to get back to the line of scrimmage.

And let’s not forget, Jim Zorn told Sports Illustrated this offseason that he had to change his playing calling last year because he knew there were plays in his playbook that the offensive line simply couldn’t do their job long enough to set up.

People heard those comments and Portis got the benefit of the doubt. But because this town simply cannot help but obsess over a potential quarterback controversy, Campbell never got the same respect (even if he played behind the same putrid offensive line). Here’s how Campbell fared during the same stretch:

In the first eight games, Campbell completed 66 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,754 yards, with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.

In the final eight games, Campbell completed 59 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,491, with five touchdowns and six interceptions.

What’s more, Campbell’s yards per pass attempt dropped from 7.6 yards the first half of the season to 5.4 yards per attempt down the stretch. That only reinforces our belief that Campbell simply didn’t have enough time to look downfield, so he routinely had to settle with check downs and dump-offs.

So, to recap, because of a substandard offensive line, Campbell faced as much pressure as any quarterback in the league. And yet, statistically speaking, he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. His throws were almost always on target, but Campbell’s receivers dropped more passes than anyone else.

His offensive line failed him. His receivers failed him. And at the end of the day, fans (and even his own front office) figured it was easier to blame Campbell than to admit there are much larger problems with Washington’s offense. It makes sense though. It’s easier (and cheaper) to replace one guy rather than half the offense – even if he’s not the problem.

Our only hope is that after this season, Campbell finds himself in a city where he’s truly appreciated and is surrounded with enough talent to show critics exactly what he’s capable of. Just know that when it happens, we’ll be here saying, “Told you so.”

We’ve said our piece, now let’s open it up to Campbell haters …

Really good article. Stat's don't lie.

Champsturf wrote:

nc skins wrote:let him throw the intermediate routes. he seems to hit the 12-15 yard pass well. Thats one of his few strengths. if we dont do that we are going to look like the team that finished the year 2-6

One strength really won't get us far. I agree that he does seem to do that well, but if it's all intermediate routes and handoffs, we're in for a long season.

KazooSkinsFan wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:I've never understood the hate for Brunell and the irrational love for Campbell thing

OK, I'll explain it to you.

Our argument: It's hard to find an NFL starting quarterback and he seems to have some skills and a great arm. He's only done so so, but the OL is an issue, his changing systems every year is an issue, having few receivers is an issue. Sounds like we need to try to develop him and see if he's our solution or not.

Ray's Response: That's just "irrational love" what the heck is up with that!!!!

KazooSkinsFan wrote:So Ray, do you see the "irrational" now? Hint, it's not where you thought it was...

VetSkinsFan wrote:So you base your theory on a 38yo QB who's never even played a whole season from 5 games a few years ago? Don't deal with statistics (not NFL tackle recap, but REAL statistical studies) much do you? I wouldn't bet the farm on that small sample size, but you keep harping on LESS THAN a season. After all, If we want to use such small sample sizes, didn't JC go 6-2 in the first 8 games last year?

Let's use small sample sizes for an agenda.

I'm not saying JC's the answer, but I'm saying that Collins is not.

Bob 0119 wrote:Jason's big bonehead play was the INT he threw after he crossed the line of scrimmage, but I can't fault him on the fumble returned for a touchdown.

Not nearly as much as I would D'Angelo Hall failing to take Manningham out of bounds and the whole D watching him scamper 30 yards barely touched into the end-zone.

Paralis wrote:If anybody in the NFL thought Collins was a viable starting QB, they would have signed him at the end of 07. He was a free agent on the open market, and nobody wanted him. End of story.

RayNAustin wrote:"Our Argument" ? You got a mouse in your pocket? Or are you referring to the last dozen Redskin fans left in the world who keep clinging to the same worn out list of excuses for why Jason Campbell hasn't already broken passing records?

RayNAustin wrote:

VetSkinsFan wrote:So you base your theory on a 38yo QB who's never even played a whole season from 5 games a few years ago? Don't deal with statistics (not NFL tackle recap, but REAL statistical studies) much do you? I wouldn't bet the farm on that small sample size, but you keep harping on LESS THAN a season. After all, If we want to use such small sample sizes, didn't JC go 6-2 in the first 8 games last year?

Let's use small sample sizes for an agenda.

I'm not saying JC's the answer, but I'm saying that Collins is not.

See, this is where you abandon rationality. First, I'm looking at three years and 36 games from Campbell ... a very solid sample of what should represent Campbell's baseline. And since Collins only had the opportunity to play 5 games (to be precise, 4 1/2 games) in 2007, that's all that can be measured. I'm not cherry picking. And in the 4 wins (all regular season games), none of them were fluke 1 point wins. They were rock solid outings that produced something that's been very rare in Redskin land ... definitive wins without all of the last minute nail biting and hand wringing. All of them were clear cut wins.

From this you want to make the leap to ASSUME that Collins couldn't make it through a full season, or that he MIGHT not play as well in more games when you have ZERO EVIDENCE to make that assumption. I could follow your logic if it were just 1 game, or two games. But 4 straight wins, averaging over 26 points per game? That's not a fluke, and it's all that we have to judge. The evidence available shows that the Redskins are much more successful when Collins plays. And that is true of the statistics in the preseason as well. Collins stats have been better than Campbell's across the board. They were better last year, and this year too.

As for the age assumption ... Collins has very few miles on him compared to some other QBs in his general age range that are still playing or did play well at his age. Favre is 39. Warner is 38 (and both have huge miles on their bodies). Kerry Collins is 36. Garcia did pretty well for Philly when he was 36 (and he has a lot of miles on him). Hell, Vinny Testaverde started when he was 44 years old. Unitis played till 41, and both Elway and Montana played well at 38. And there are many more examples.

Collins physical age and his "football age" are not at all the same. 10-12 years starting takes a huge toll on the body ... but Collins football miles are low, and his effective age is less ... like 32 maybe, in just wear and tear.

So for you to assume he's too old, or couldn't make it through an entire season is an assumption with no facts to support it. Frankly, of all the QB's in his general age group, Todd Collins is probably more likely to make it through a full season than Favre, or Kerry Collins, or Kurt Warner.

And to be even more blunt, Campbell has only played one 16 game season ... if you'll recall, he didn't make it through 2007.

The stuff really seems to get deep around here when talking about Jason Campbell. Save your love and devotion for the other JC.

KazooSkinsFan wrote:

RayNAustin wrote:"Our Argument" ? You got a mouse in your pocket? Or are you referring to the last dozen Redskin fans left in the world who keep clinging to the same worn out list of excuses for why Jason Campbell hasn't already broken passing records?

I guess since those fans are your hallucinations they can be saying whatever you want them to. But since you're posting it on a real message board, this one, I'm pointing out that no one who actually exists has been saying that JC is going to break any records or even that he was a sure starter, only that he had potential and was our best option. Ray, I've been on the board for the last couple years in that discussion and you've erroneously characterized our support that whole time. It's still the fact, no one is saying what you are saying they are. So strut all you want, the muscles you're flexing are noodles.

RayNAustin wrote:

Paralis wrote:Yeah, and if anyone in the NFL thought Campbell was a starting QB they'd have been more than willing to give the Redskins that 2nd round pick they were shopping Campbell for. END OF STORY

VetSkinsFan wrote:It must really suck knowing that you're right and all those scouts, HCs, GMs, owners, and everyone else who are actually IN the industry are wrong, eh? I mean, really, how is it that you're NOT a GM? Obviously by your theorizing and poor probabilities, you've proven beyond a reasonable doubt that Collins is the answer. I'm simply saying neither appear to be the answer...and I'm the one with the man-crush?

Ray wrote:Virtually everyone, with a small few exceptions maintained the Campbell bandwagon last year. Several started hedging their bets on Campbell toward the end of the year, but still continue making excuses for him

Ray wrote:I'll tell you what, you give me a dollar for every old post I put up predicting Campbell's "breakout year", and how he's going to do so well, and how he only needs pass protection .... etc. How bout it? You game?

I bet you a hundred there's a hundred or more.

Put up or .....

Just to stir the pot, here's some more stats from this weekend's game.


QB Campbell Manning

C/ATT 19/26 20/29
Yards 211 256
Avg 8.1 8.8
TD 1 1
INT 1 1
FUMBL 2 2
FUM Loss 1 1
Rating 93.6 93.5


Yeah, Jason isn't half the QB Manning is Rolling Eyes

Bob 0119 wrote:Just to stir the pot, here's some more stats from this weekend's game.


QB Campbell Manning

C/ATT 19/26 20/29
Yards 211 256
Avg 8.1 8.8
TD 1 1
INT 1 1
FUMBL 2 2
FUM Loss 1 1
Rating 93.6 93.5


1. Yeah, Jason isn't half the QB Manning is

2. The real story of this game is the poor play of the defense. Period.

3. Jason was running for his life, while Manning had all day to throw.

4. The only person who seemed to know how to tackle was Fletcher who had twice as many tackles, and three times as many solo tackles as anyone else on the defense.

5. Time of possesion says it all. The Giants had the ball 12 minutes longer than the Redskins.

6. Jason's big bonehead play was the INT he threw after he crossed the line of scrimmage, but I can't fault him on the fumble returned for a touchdown.

7. Not nearly as much as I would D'Angelo Hall failing to take Manningham out of bounds and the whole D watching him scamper 30 yards barely touched into the end-zone.