The value of three first round picks

[Skeletor]

Just out of curiosity, I went back to take a look at what the Skins were giving up trading three consecutive first rounders for the Rams' pick.

here's the list of picks since 1970


1970-1979 No First round draft picks

1980 18 Art Monk WR Syracuse
1981 20 Mark May T Pittsburgh
1982 No first-round draft pick
1983 28 Darrell Green CB Texas A&I

1984-1990 No first-round draft picks

1991 17 Bobby Wilson DT Michigan State
1992 4 Desmond Howard WR Michigan
1993 19 Tom Carter DB Notre Dame
1994 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
1995 4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado
1996 30 Andre Johnson T Penn State
1997 17 Kenard Lang DE Miami
1998 No first-round draft pick
1999 7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia
2000 2 LaVar Arrington LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels T Alabama
2001 15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane
2003 No first-round draft pick
2004 5 Sean Taylor S Miami (FL)
2005 9 Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn
2006 No first-round draft pick
2007 6 LaRon Landry S Louisiana State
2008 No first-round draft pick
2009 13 Brian Orakpo DE Texas
2010 4 Trent WilliamsOT Oklahoma
2011 16 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

so a couple of thoughts:

1. It's pretty amazing that we had two periods of 6 plus years where we had no first round picks. Perhaps even more amazing is that during those two periods we went to three Super Bowls... Granted, that was before free agency and salary caps, etc.

2. So looking at the salary cap/free agency era which began sometime in the early 90s, in theory, first round picks were more valuable than ever. Yet, if you look at our draft history, not sure there are many three year periods where I wouldn't have traded those picks for a potential franchise QB like RG3.

You have Champ Bailey, Lavar and Chris Samuels: all drafted in the top 5 over a two year period. There were a lot of pro bowls between them.

Sean Taylor, Carlos Rodgers and Jason Campbell: again three drafted in two years. Taylor might have been an all-time great, Rodgers was serviceable here, but had his best year in SF, and JC, well, was JC.

Orakpo, T.Williams and Kerrigan: might be a great haul but too early to tell.

3. This back of the envelope analysis does not factor in what we used the first round picks to get via trades, especially the trade down scenarios.

4. This may be a sign that the value of first rounders isn't as great as we think, or it may be a sign that we just haven't drafted very well. I could make arguments either way.

5. Our last three picks may be one of our best three year hauls. This suggests that our front office is doing a better job (Even Vinny couldn't screw up the Orakpo pick) or it could reflect optimism that may not hold up going forward... If our front office does do more with first round picks than we have historically done, that would increase the value of the picks we're using to get RG3.

[DarthMonk]

Nice post. I was noticing the only pick that was #2 overall was LaVar Arrington. I agree with your

Taylor might have been an all-time great

and feel similarly about Arrington. Had he played under Marty for the next 8 years, who knows?

We are, for the 2nd time in half a century, picking at #2 overall, and we are doing so in what is allegedly a historic draft at QB.

When you compare that to the 6th pick you come up with Landry (6) and Bailey (7).

The future #1s will hopefully be 21st overall or worse.

DarthMonk

Just out of curiosity, I went back to take a look at what the Skins were giving up trading three consecutive first rounders for the Rams' pick.

here's the list of picks since 1970


1970-1979 No First round draft picks

1980 18 Art Monk WR Syracuse
1981 20 Mark May T Pittsburgh
1982 No first-round draft pick
1983 28 Darrell Green CB Texas A&I

1984-1990 No first-round draft picks

1991 17 Bobby Wilson DT Michigan State
1992 4 Desmond Howard WR Michigan
1993 19 Tom Carter DB Notre Dame
1994 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
1995 4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado
1996 30 Andre Johnson T Penn State
1997 17 Kenard Lang DE Miami
1998 No first-round draft pick
1999 7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia
2000 2 LaVar Arrington LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels T Alabama
2001 15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane
2003 No first-round draft pick
2004 5 Sean Taylor S Miami (FL)
2005 9 Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn
2006 No first-round draft pick
2007 6 LaRon Landry S Louisiana State
2008 No first-round draft pick
2009 13 Brian Orakpo DE Texas
2010 4 Trent WilliamsOT Oklahoma
2011 16 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

so a couple of thoughts:

1. It's pretty amazing that we had two periods of 6 plus years where we had no first round picks. Perhaps even more amazing is that during those two periods we went to three Super Bowls... Granted, that was before free agency and salary caps, etc.

2. So looking at the salary cap/free agency era which began sometime in the early 90s, in theory, first round picks were more valuable than ever. Yet, if you look at our draft history, not sure there are many three year periods where I wouldn't have traded those picks for a potential franchise QB like RG3.

You have Champ Bailey, Lavar and Chris Samuels: all drafted in the top 5 over a two year period. There were a lot of pro bowls between them.

Sean Taylor, Carlos Rodgers and Jason Campbell: again three drafted in two years. Taylor might have been an all-time great, Rodgers was serviceable here, but had his best year in SF, and JC, well, was JC.

Orakpo, T.Williams and Kerrigan: might be a great haul but too early to tell.

3. This back of the envelope analysis does not factor in what we used the first round picks to get via trades, especially the trade down scenarios.

4. This may be a sign that the value of first rounders isn't as great as we think, or it may be a sign that we just haven't drafted very well. I could make arguments either way.

5. Our last three picks may be one of our best three year hauls. This suggests that our front office is doing a better job (Even Vinny couldn't screw up the Orakpo pick) or it could reflect optimism that may not hold up going forward... If our front office does do more with first round picks than we have historically done, that would increase the value of the picks we're using to get RG3.

[The Hogster]

The name of this thread is "The value of three first round picks"

If that's the question, the answer is it depends on which 3.

In this case, the value is RG3, let's hope he's more Art Monk, Darrell Green, Sean Taylor than Tom Carter, Rod Gardner or Michael Westbrook.

I think he will be.

Hail

[skinsfan#33]

Just out of curiosity, I went back to take a look at what the Skins were giving up trading three consecutive first rounders for the Rams' pick.

here's the list of picks since 1970


1970-1979 No First round draft picks

1980 18 Art Monk WR Syracuse
1981 20 Mark May T Pittsburgh
1982 No first-round draft pick
1983 28 Darrell Green CB Texas A&I

1984-1990 No first-round draft picks

1991 17 Bobby Wilson DT Michigan State
1992 4 Desmond Howard WR Michigan
1993 19 Tom Carter DB Notre Dame
1994 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
1995 4 Michael Westbrook WR Colorado
1996 30 Andre Johnson T Penn State
1997 17 Kenard Lang DE Miami
1998 No first-round draft pick
1999 7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia
2000 2 LaVar Arrington LB Penn State
3 Chris Samuels T Alabama
2001 15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson
2002 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane
2003 No first-round draft pick
2004 5 Sean Taylor S Miami (FL)
2005 9 Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn
2006 No first-round draft pick
2007 6 LaRon Landry S Louisiana State
2008 No first-round draft pick
2009 13 Brian Orakpo DE Texas
2010 4 Trent WilliamsOT Oklahoma
2011 16 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

> Desmond cost us the two first rounders (#6 and #28) to move up to #4
> Brad Johnson cost us a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd
> Chris Samuals cost us the #12 and #24 to move up to #3
> Campbell cost a 1st, 3rd, and 5th.

You know what they all have in common? None of them helped us win a SB and they all cost multiple draft picks. That is a total of six first rounders, a second, two 3rds, and 5th.

Sure Chris Samuals went to the PB year after year after year, but how many winning seasons did we have with him? Brad Johnson was the major ingrediant for our last NFC E title, but how long was he hear. JC was a so so. AND Horward was an unmitigated disaster! Of course turning two 1st rounders in to draft a WR is a loser's bet from the start! Sure three 1st and a 2nd are a steep price to pay for any player, but we payed twice as much for the list of four players above.

Take out Samuals and it is still more than we are paying for Griffin!

Draft picks are meant to be used to make the team better and these four picks will. I won't even go go over all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders we have traded for players like DMac, TJ "the tip toe burgler" Duckett, B LLyod, and Rocky MacIntosh.

IT IS ABOUT TIME WE TRADE PICKS FOR A PLAYER THAT COULD BE GREAT!!!

[1niksder]

The value of the pick traded are unknown...
We don't know what RGIII will bring to the team, we can only speculate as to what could have been with this year's selections at #6 and #39, let alone where the 2013 and 2014 picks will be slotted or what their contubutions might have been. By 2015 we'll be more able to answer this question.

The picks aren't really worth anything right now.

[The Hogster]

The big surprise about Cam Newton was essentially that he came into the NFL and picked right up where he left off in college.

If RG3 can do anything close to that, then he's worth it. He's worth it now because Snyder will probably have to put those seats back that he ripped out for the "party deck."

He's an offensive weapon that will pose problems that we have never seen at QB in DC. That's worth every drop.

[SkinsJock]

Let's look back after 5 years of Cam and compare where RGIII has taken this franchise

there will be no doubt as to who is the better QB and which franchise is in better shape

OF COURSE - we have Mike, as our HC and as part of the FO, so that weighs VERY heavily in our favor too

[Skinsfan55]

Want to hear something interesting? The Redskins did not have a first round pick from 1984 to 1991. Seven drafts came and went with no first round draft pick. During this time, the Redskins went 71-40. That's six winning seasons, four playoff appearances, and one Superbowl (followed by another in 1991).

There's no doubt that three first round picks carry a lot of value, but there is nothing as valuable, in any sport as a franchise QB. We may see the Rams rebuild their team on the backs of this trade, but we're not going to miss those picks.

[SkinsJock]

If the 3 QBs, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were available in this draft, which order do you think they'd go?

The value of the trade cannot really be measured in what might have been - it's almost impossible

RGIII may turn out to be fantastic but if the other pieces are not added through great FO work, this year and in the next 3-4 years - the trade does not look so good

This FO will make this franchise great again and this trade will go a long way to making that happen


How this FO handles free agency and continues to build will be the key

[SouthLondonRedskin]

Want to hear something interesting? The Redskins did not have a first round pick from 1984 to 1991. Seven drafts came and went with no first round draft pick. During this time, the Redskins went 71-40. That's six winning seasons, four playoff appearances, and one Superbowl (followed by another in 1991).

There's no doubt that three first round picks carry a lot of value, but there is nothing as valuable, in any sport as a franchise QB. We may see the Rams rebuild their team on the backs of this trade, but we're not going to miss those picks.

That's it, end of arguement.

It's great to have the picks but it doesn't guarantee a thing. We can bring in plenty of young talented players in later rounds, just as we did last season, and God willing, just as we will next month.

If RGIII is the player all ALL the experts think he is and we hope he is then this will go down as an inspired bit of work from Shanny.

History, as always, will decide....

[StorminMormon86]

Anyone else think the Rams are going to be really good in the next couple of years?

[riggofan]

Good points. I was listening to this discussion on the radio this morning, and I think people are just way too panicked about this trade. Especially about what we gave up.

We may have traded three first round picks for RGIII, but we only traded two first round players and one second rounder.

So we lost out on maybe a new first round CB, WR and say a second round linemen. That's exactly three players we have to make up for in free agency.

Its not the ideal situation. I wish we could have grabbed him at #6. But the Skins went big, took a shot at being great and moved to get their franchise QB.

[Skeletor]

Want to hear something interesting? The Redskins did not have a first round pick from 1984 to 1991. Seven drafts came and went with no first round draft pick. During this time, the Redskins went 71-40. That's six winning seasons, four playoff appearances, and one Superbowl (followed by another in 1991).

There's no doubt that three first round picks carry a lot of value, but there is nothing as valuable, in any sport as a franchise QB. We may see the Rams rebuild their team on the backs of this trade, but we're not going to miss those picks.

Yeah, I mentioned that in my original post. However, it's a different era, no salary cap, no free agency...

[The Hogster]

Anyone else think the Rams are going to be really good in the next couple of years?

They have a chance to be really good. A lot depends on what they do this year. I don't think our 2013 & 2014 picks are going to be all that high.

[langleyparkjoe]

Value of the picks in my perspective...

Picks- Pretty good value for 1st rounders.
Moving up in draft- Excellent to get a better player
RG3 OR Andrew Luck- The look on cowboys defense faces for the upcoming seasons, PRICELESS!!!!!

[riggofan]

Anyone else think the Rams are going to be really good in the next couple of years?

They have a chance to be really good. A lot depends on what they do this year. I don't think our 2013 & 2014 picks are going to be all that high.

LOL. I really like Jeff Fisher myself, so I think they would be pretty good just from the coaching upgrade. Giving the guy an extra first rounder the next two years isn't going to hurt him!

[SkinsJock]

IF RG3 becomes a great QB in the next 5 years - NOBODY will remember the exact trade details

The only way that there are ramifications is IF RG3 does not become a really good QB - that's not happening

FANTASTIC trade for both franchises - I hope the Rams use their picks well

There's no doubt that we helped this franchise in many, many ways