Article about a Frankcal20 Question

[frankcal20]

Twitter question: Beware of 2nd-round quarterbacks

By Rich Tandler

It is a little too early to be talking about draft strategy but I get a question like this one that I got from @frankcal20 a lot and even at this early date I can give it an intelligible answer.

@Rich_Tandler - Some folks think that getting WR Blackmon in the 1st and a QB in the 2nd makes the most sense. How about that combo?

While it might be nice to snag a top-five impact player first and then get the best available quarterback when your turn comes up in the second, it is too big a risk for the Redskins to take. They have to take a quarterback with their first pick.

Mike Shanahan has to get this right. He can’t go into the fourth year of his five-year contract without his quarterback of the future. And the chances of finding that quarterback in the second round are very slim.

Sure, there is Drew Brees, who was the 32nd pick in 2001 (that was a second-round pick in the 31-team NFL then, it would be a first-round pick today). Andy Dalton, The 35th pick in last April’s draft, has played well for the Bengals so far.

But they are about it as far as hits on second-round quarterbacks. I wrote an article before the draft in 2010 looking the merits of draft an offensive lineman in the second round versus those of taking a quarterback in the second. You can go look at the details in the article but the bottom line was that second-round quarterbacks were almost universally busts. Since 2004, they have been guys like John Beck, Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson, Drew Stanton and Brian Brohm.

Shanahan’s job is on the line with this pick. The Redskins have to get a quarterback that can play in 2012 and can be a cornerstone for years to come.

While the first round is no sure thing when it comes to getting such a player, even the top 10 where the Redskins are likely to be drafting, there is a much better chance of landing a franchise quarterback there than later in the draft.

The reason is that teams overdraft quarterbacks. They take them earlier than they should be drafted because good ones are in such short supply. By the time you get to the quarterbacks available in the second round you are down to fourth- or fifth-round talent.

Are there other needs that the team could fill with a first-round pick? Certainly. But on this team, quarterback trumps all other needs.

Unless the Redskins do something to acquire their QB of the future prior to the draft they are very likely to be drafting him in the first round.

I wrote this question after a buddy of mine suggested us getting Blackmon. Also, and can't remember which radio show, but there were a few callers who said the Skins should draft Blackman b/c he's a can't miss WR.

For what it's worth, I'm totally cool drafting a player that isn't a QB in the 1st round but WR is not who I would want. We'll most likely be in the top 5 and I have to think that we would draft a lineman if not a QB.

[StorminMormon86]

I just don't see Shanahan passing on a QB unless all of the other top prospects are nabbed by the time it's our pick.

[PAPDOG67]

No way you take a Lineman in the top 5 again with our needs at QB. I love a good line, and lord knows we need more good linemen, but I haven't seen too many teams win the SB with a dominant o-line and absolutely no QB recently. You could give Grossman the old hogs as his o-line and we'd still miss the playoffs.

[SkinsJock]

THE REDSKINS TOP PRIORITY IS TO DRAFT A QB


WHY would you NOT do that with your first pick

ANY OTHER SPECULATION is just a waste of time

[frankcal20]

Looking back at Shanny's QB's (Plumber, Elway, Cutler & even Shaub - jr) is there a QB in the draft who is similar to them? Simi mobile, accurate, 6'3 average size.

[GoSkins]

Looking back at Shanny's QB's (Plumber, Elway, Cutler & even Shaub - jr) is there a QB in the draft who is similar to them? Simi mobile, accurate, 6'3 average size.

Barkley, Griffin and Landry

[skinsfan#33]

Have to take a QB in the first. The only other possition you can consider if LT (move Trent "tokey" Williams to RT).

No way this team can even consider taking let alone actually taking a WR in the first. I don't care if this guy will end up immediately becoming the NFL's top WR. WRs simply don't have a big enough impact on the game!

Name a WR that gas had a dramatic impact on a team. I can't think of any.

[CanesSkins26]

Looking back at Shanny's QB's (Plumber, Elway, Cutler & even Shaub - jr) is there a QB in the draft who is similar to them? Simi mobile, accurate, 6'3 average size.

Outside of Luck, Barkley, followed by RGIII, probably fits that description the best. Barkley is 6'2, but he's more accurate that Plummer or Cutler. Jones isn't as possible.

[CanesSkins26]

Twitter question: Beware of 2nd-round quarterbacks

By Rich Tandler

It is a little too early to be talking about draft strategy but I get a question like this one that I got from @frankcal20 a lot and even at this early date I can give it an intelligible answer.

@Rich_Tandler - Some folks think that getting WR Blackmon in the 1st and a QB in the 2nd makes the most sense. How about that combo?

While it might be nice to snag a top-five impact player first and then get the best available quarterback when your turn comes up in the second, it is too big a risk for the Redskins to take. They have to take a quarterback with their first pick.

Mike Shanahan has to get this right. He can’t go into the fourth year of his five-year contract without his quarterback of the future. And the chances of finding that quarterback in the second round are very slim.

Sure, there is Drew Brees, who was the 32nd pick in 2001 (that was a second-round pick in the 31-team NFL then, it would be a first-round pick today). Andy Dalton, The 35th pick in last April’s draft, has played well for the Bengals so far.

But they are about it as far as hits on second-round quarterbacks. I wrote an article before the draft in 2010 looking the merits of draft an offensive lineman in the second round versus those of taking a quarterback in the second. You can go look at the details in the article but the bottom line was that second-round quarterbacks were almost universally busts. Since 2004, they have been guys like John Beck, Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson, Drew Stanton and Brian Brohm.

Shanahan’s job is on the line with this pick. The Redskins have to get a quarterback that can play in 2012 and can be a cornerstone for years to come.

While the first round is no sure thing when it comes to getting such a player, even the top 10 where the Redskins are likely to be drafting, there is a much better chance of landing a franchise quarterback there than later in the draft.

The reason is that teams overdraft quarterbacks. They take them earlier than they should be drafted because good ones are in such short supply. By the time you get to the quarterbacks available in the second round you are down to fourth- or fifth-round talent.

Are there other needs that the team could fill with a first-round pick? Certainly. But on this team, quarterback trumps all other needs.

Unless the Redskins do something to acquire their QB of the future prior to the draft they are very likely to be drafting him in the first round.

I wrote this question after a buddy of mine suggested us getting Blackmon. Also, and can't remember which radio show, but there were a few callers who said the Skins should draft Blackman b/c he's a can't miss WR.

For what it's worth, I'm totally cool drafting a player that isn't a QB in the 1st round but WR is not who I would want. We'll most likely be in the top 5 and I have to think that we would draft a lineman if not a QB.

By the way, good question Frank. I think that Tandler is right on in his analysis too. Shanahan can't afford not to find his qb of the future in this draft and waiting until the second round would be a huge gamble. While the top end talent in this draft is deeper and better than last year's, outside of the top 4 guys you have a lot of question marks with this qb class. Getting a guy like Dalton in the second round this year would be pretty difficult, imo.

[PAPDOG67]

Have to take a QB in the first. The only other possition you can consider if LT (move Trent "tokey" Williams to RT).

No way this team can even consider taking let alone actually taking a WR in the first. I don't care if this guy will end up immediately becoming the NFL's top WR. WRs simply don't have a big enough impact on the game!

Name a WR that gas had a dramatic impact on a team. I can't think of any.

Wow, I don't even know where to start with this comment. No disrespect, but have you watched football in the last 20 years?? The game is becoming more and more pass happy, and a dominant WR can make even the mediocre QBs look good. Stafford and Schaub are good, but how many times a year do they just throw it up to Johnson & Johnson and have those guy make a play?? Rogers is unbelievable, but his WRs literally catch EVERYTHING thrown their way. Nelson, Jennings, and Driver are all awesome on getting their feet in on sideline thows and adjusting to back shoulder throws. Plaxico Buress single handedly beat GB in the championship in 2007. Ask anyone on that GB team and they'll tell you they had no answer for him. Hek the best example is to just look at Randy Moss' first few years....he helped Cunningham have a career year at the age of 35 and made Culpepper look like Marino. That being said, we need to draft a QB.

[SkinsJock]

Looking back at Shanny's QB's (Plumber, Elway, Cutler & even Shaub - jr) is there a QB in the draft who is similar to them? Semi mobile, accurate, 6'3 average size.

Outside of Luck, Barkley, followed by RGIII, probably fits that description the best. Barkley is 6'2, but he's more accurate that Plummer or Cutler. Jones isn't as possible.

I agree - in order of preference, Luck, Barkley or Griffin III

We WILL draft a QB with our first pick

It does not matter whether he 'suits' or 'matches up' with Plumber, Elway, Cutler or Shaub. NOT AT ALL

IT IS CRITICAL to Mike & Bruce that they draft a QB (and he better 'work out')

not as important but also pretty important is to bring in a FA to start while Grossman helps both of them with Kyle's "offense"


btw - good question to ask and Tandler's right - IT is critical

[StorminMormon86]

In a perfect world, we wouldn't resign Grossman, sign Matt Flynn (FA in 2012) as a possible "younthful" backup to the QB we draft. And if the QB we draft isn't ready to start, you start Flynn to see what he has. But then again, this isn't a perfect world we live in.

[SkinsJock]

Let's make this VERY clear

We ARE drafting a QB and he will NOT be starting - NOT even if that QB is Andrew Luck


Mike (& Kyle) will not start a rookie QB until he AND the other players around him are 'ready'

[CanesSkins26]

In a perfect world, we wouldn't resign Grossman, sign Matt Flynn (FA in 2012) as a possible "younthful" backup to the QB we draft. And if the QB we draft isn't ready to start, you start Flynn to see what he has. But then again, this isn't a perfect world we live in.

The one major problem is see with the idea of signing Flynn and drafting a qb in the first is that you end up with 2 young qb's, neither of which was here the year before, both in a new system. As distasteful as it sounds, you almost have to keep either Rex or Beck to have someone that is familiar with the system. Although I supposed you could theoretically keep Crompton as your third qb instead of Beck and Grossman, but under that scenario you would have a rookie qb and two others in Flynn and Crompton that have started 1 combined NFL game between the three of them. That's a scary proposition.

[langleyparkjoe]

Barkley, Griffin and Landry

[StorminMormon86]

The one major problem is see with the idea of signing Flynn and drafting a qb in the first is that you end up with 2 young qb's, neither of which was here the year before, both in a new system. As distasteful as it sounds, you almost have to keep either Rex or Beck to have someone that is familiar with the system. Although I supposed you could theoretically keep Crompton as your third qb instead of Beck and Grossman, but under that scenario you would have a rookie qb and two others in Flynn and Crompton that have started 1 combined NFL game between the three of them. That's a scary proposition.

I was kind of hinting at keeping Beck as a third QB on the roster, since he has a year left, Shanahan staked his reputation on him, and also publically said he didn't have the benefit of OTAs because of the lockout. I doubt they'll be getting rid of Beck. It might be Beck next year until the rookie is ready.

[PAPDOG67]

The one major problem is see with the idea of signing Flynn and drafting a qb in the first is that you end up with 2 young qb's, neither of which was here the year before, both in a new system. As distasteful as it sounds, you almost have to keep either Rex or Beck to have someone that is familiar with the system. Although I supposed you could theoretically keep Crompton as your third qb instead of Beck and Grossman, but under that scenario you would have a rookie qb and two others in Flynn and Crompton that have started 1 combined NFL game between the three of them. That's a scary proposition.

I was kind of hinting at keeping Beck as a third QB on the roster, since he has a year left, Shanahan staked his reputation on him, and also publically said he didn't have the benefit of OTAs because of the lockout. I doubt they'll be getting rid of Beck. It might be Beck next year until the rookie is ready.

I think I just threw up in my mouth.

[Champsturf]

+1 @ PAPDOG67

[skinsfan#33]

Have to take a QB in the first. The only other possition you can consider if LT (move Trent "tokey" Williams to RT).

No way this team can even consider taking let alone actually taking a WR in the first. I don't care if this guy will end up immediately becoming the NFL's top WR. WRs simply don't have a big enough impact on the game!

Name a WR that gas had a dramatic impact on a team. I can't think of any.

Wow, I don't even know where to start with this comment. No disrespect, but have you watched football in the last 20 years?? The game is becoming more and more pass happy, and a dominant WR can make even the mediocre QBs look good. Stafford and Schaub are good, but how many times a year do they just throw it up to Johnson & Johnson and have those guy make a play?? Rogers is unbelievable, but his WRs literally catch EVERYTHING thrown their way. Nelson, Jennings, and Driver are all awesome on getting their feet in on sideline thows and adjusting to back shoulder throws. Plaxico Buress single handedly beat GB in the championship in 2007. Ask anyone on that GB team and they'll tell you they had no answer for him. Hek the best example is to just look at Randy Moss' first few years....he helped Cunningham have a career year at the age of 35 and made Culpepper look like Marino. That being said, we need to draft a QB.

Look I'm not opposed to drafting a WR, just against a WR in the first round, let alone the top half of the draft where we will pick. Those selections should be reserved for players that could become major impact difference makers for a Superbowl run and WRs just can't ever become that.

I'm glad you brought up Johnson and Johnson because if memory serves me right they have never even made the playoffs, let alone been a major contributor on a Superbowl team. I'll take a look at the 20 year period you picked out and of the 74 first round WRs only a half a dozen have made significant impact for a team that drafted them during a Superbowl run and none were the reason that team won. Two of those six or seven players were Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, who won one SB with one of if not the best QB of all time. During that span the Patriots won three SBs with almost nothing at WR. As a matter of fact since the last time the Pats won a SB they have had a better WR corp. Welker and Moss were an almost unstoppable combo, yet the Giants D, Eli, and David Tyrie (sp?) did just that.

None of the Packer WRs you mentioned are first round WRs!

The Lions have drafted 4 top ten WRs in the last ten years (three duds and a stud) yet they have yet to reach the playoffs. Until they added their QB and their arm stomping DT they were door mats even with Megatron!

WRs are needed on a team, but they are not a bang for the buck type pick that should ever be taken high in a draft!

WE have to go QB (or LT then QB). This team is too bad to waste a high pick on flashy wheels when they have no chasis or driver to run a race!

[PAPDOG67]

Have to take a QB in the first. The only other possition you can consider if LT (move Trent "tokey" Williams to RT).

No way this team can even consider taking let alone actually taking a WR in the first. I don't care if this guy will end up immediately becoming the NFL's top WR. WRs simply don't have a big enough impact on the game!

Name a WR that gas had a dramatic impact on a team. I can't think of any.

Wow, I don't even know where to start with this comment. No disrespect, but have you watched football in the last 20 years?? The game is becoming more and more pass happy, and a dominant WR can make even the mediocre QBs look good. Stafford and Schaub are good, but how many times a year do they just throw it up to Johnson & Johnson and have those guy make a play?? Rogers is unbelievable, but his WRs literally catch EVERYTHING thrown their way. Nelson, Jennings, and Driver are all awesome on getting their feet in on sideline thows and adjusting to back shoulder throws. Plaxico Buress single handedly beat GB in the championship in 2007. Ask anyone on that GB team and they'll tell you they had no answer for him. Hek the best example is to just look at Randy Moss' first few years....he helped Cunningham have a career year at the age of 35 and made Culpepper look like Marino. That being said, we need to draft a QB.

Look I'm not opposed to drafting a WR, just against a WR in the first round, let alone the top half of the draft where we will pick. Those selections should be reserved for players that could become major impact difference makers for a Superbowl run and WRs just can't ever become that.

I'm glas you brought up Johnson and Johnson because if memory serves me right they have never even made the playoffs, let alone been a major contributor on a Superbowl team. I'll take a look at the 20 year periors you picked out and of the 74 first round WRs only a half a dozen have made significant impact for a team that drafted them during a Superbowl run and none were the reason that team won. Two of those six or seven players were Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, who won one SB with one of if not the best QB of all time. During that span the Patriots won three SBs with almost nothing at WR. As a matter of fact since the last time the Pats won a SB they have had a better WR corp. Welker and Moss were an almost unstoppable combo, yet the Giants D, Eli, and David Tyrie (sp?) did just that.

None of the Packer WRs you mentioned are first round WRs!

The Lions have drafted 4 top ten WRs in the last ten years (three duds and a stud) yet they have yet to reach the playoffs. Until they added Their QB and their arm stomping DT they were door mats even with Megatron!

WRs are needed on a team, but they are not a bang for the buck type pick that should ever be taken high in a draft!

WE have to go QB (or LT then QB). This team is too bad to waste a high pick on flashy wheels when they have no chasis or driver to run a race!

Your original comment was that WR don't have enough impact on the game. In that sense I would disagree with you and say that you were wrong. I didn't know we were analyzing SB teams. If you want to go that route, I think Michael Irvin (can't believe I had to bring up that idiot) was pretty damn important to the Cowgirls runs, Jerry Rice was a main contributor to the 49ers SBs, Santonio Holmes was pretty important to Pitt, and I've already given you Burress for the Giants. Oh, and Arizona doesn't sniff the SB without Fitzy. You want to tell me they all had good QBs, well of course they did....you usually don't win the SB without a pretty good QB, they go hand in hand......unless your name is Trent Dilfer.

[Countertrey]

When you are still short a quarterback, and in need of O-line help... you don't use your 1st round pick on a WR... The percentage hit by the Lions is about right... for every 4 WR drafted in the first round, 1 will truly live up to the billing. They simply don't touch the ball enough to be worth the risk, when you have other holes.

A WR in round 1 is a luxury pick.

[Red_One43]

Before anybody tries to counter Countertrey by bringing up the Bengals drafting AJ Green and then Dalton, that was an anomaly just like when folKs bring up Brady as a successful late round pick franchise QB pick.

There are few QBs with first round talent that slip into the second round round. Usually, it is guys like Dalton and Brees who have less than ideal something or another that is less than ideal. These guys get knocked even though fans can see that all these guys do is win. Kellen Moore is another who falls in that category; however, when you need a QB risking waiting for a guy to fall to you in the second round is a gamble that the Skins cannot afford to risk. Get RGIII or Barkley if they are there. I will wait until all the scouts weigh in before I want Landry Jones.

[Irn-Bru]

As distasteful as it sounds, you almost have to keep either Rex or Beck to have someone that is familiar with the system.

Actually, I don't mind the idea of keeping Rex as a backup. For just one year, anyway, while we wait to see if another vet hits the FA market. He seems to play at his best when he's coming in for relief.

[StorminMormon86]

He seems to play at his best when he's coming in for relief.

Like he did against Miami?

[frankcal20]

He seems to play at his best when he's coming in for relief.

Like he did against Miami?

He was the starter and knew that week he would be.