Forty-seven. The most famous number when it comes to quarterbacks and fourth quarter comebacks is 47. It may also be the most misleading number in NFL history. No matter what source you look at, John Elway is credited with a NFL record 47 comebacks in the 4th quarter. This leads much credence to the “clutchness” of a QB in his career, and is often cited in debates between Elway and other great QBs. But if you research all of his wins, you will have found that he is being credited for comeback wins in a game that ended in an overtime tie, and in several games the Broncos never trailed in the fourth quarter. You cannot come back when there’s no deficit to come back from. Dan Marino, always credited with 37 comebacks, has been ranked in 2nd place since retirement. Even DanMarino.com has 37.
Currently, Marino sits 3rd behind Favre (42 is the widely reported number) and Elway (lucky 47). But when the PR staff for the Miami Dolphins exclude wins that the Dolphins never trailed in the 4th quarter, while the Favre and Elway people do not, does that not suggest a serious issue with the validity of these “records”? And why has this been allowed to go on for over a decade?
That’s where my research comes in.
In part I, we are going to look at just Elway and Marino’s comebacks. In part II, I will show how several other QBs have had their comebacks tracked and try to create a standard method of crediting comebacks and game-winning drives.
I have taken the time to go through each player’s career and get to the bottom of things. As I looked through the games, I used a source for each QB to guide me through how they had arrived at the widely reported numbers.
Marino, from a Dolphins site
Elway, from the HOF website
I will point out the issues with those games, and bring up games missed by those lists. Before starting with Marino, let’s quickly create the definition of a comeback (there will be more detail on this in part II).
For it to be a 4th quarter comeback win, you must:
* Win the game (no ties or losses)
* Take the field with a 1–8 pt deficit (1–7 prior to 1994) and score as an offense (no fumble return TD to win the game)
* It does not have to be the final winning score (hence, that applies to the number of game-winning drives)
Got it? Now it’s time for the data. Note that this includes both postseason and regular season.
Full story at the link. Turns out Elway might actually be 3rd all-time in comebacks, behind Marino and Unitas. Very interesting stuff.
