{"id":15597,"date":"2018-04-14T10:21:38","date_gmt":"2018-04-14T14:21:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/the-hogs.net\/blogs\/2018\/04\/14\/you-will-be-mocked\/"},"modified":"2025-06-01T22:09:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T02:09:38","slug":"you-will-be-mocked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/the-hogs.net\/blogs\/2018\/04\/14\/you-will-be-mocked\/","title":{"rendered":"You Will Be Mocked – NFL Draft 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hope springs eternal. \u00a0The words, “With the 13th selection in the 2018 NFL Draft the Washington Redskins select …” have been ringing in our heads for weeks, if not months.<\/p>\n

Free agency is ostensibly over and, yet again, the front office failed to fill every need by spending.\u00a0 Good.\u00a0 That was and is a failed strategy in the salary cap era.\u00a0 It is also why the draft is so critical to the attitude of fans.\u00a0 No matter how poorly the team performed the previous season it is forgotten once the roster turns over.\u00a0 The discussion is no longer of who did what last season.\u00a0 Some of the who’s have moved on to other teams.\u00a0 Some of the who’s have moved from other teams to the Redskins.<\/p>\n

The most exciting time of year in the mind of a fan should always be right after the draft when the roster is the best it will be and the possibilities are endless.\u00a0 No cuts, no injuries, no growing pains, no hyper criticism of preseason performances.\u00a0 No judgements, no negativity.\u00a0 We are the 2018 Washington Redskins and we are here to chew bubble gum and kick ass.\u00a0 Since we’re fresh out of bubble gum …<\/p>\n

Do Me A Solid<\/h2>\n

The NFL Draft, coincidentally, always takes place within a week of my birthday, which means I personally always hope the Skins will do me a solid by drafting the next perennial all pro at any position.\u00a0 There’s plenty of time for hindsight later.\u00a0 While it’s impossible to guess along with the Front Office in terms of how they rank prospects or whether they would elect to fill a need over taking a player not expected to be on the board at #13 it is possible to look at their draft history and make an educated guess.<\/p>\n

Certainly there was no expectation Jonathan Allen would be on the board at #17 last season.\u00a0 He was.\u00a0 They selected him.\u00a0 That was undoubtedly based on both his grade being higher than a bottom half 1st round prospect and his filling a position of need.\u00a0 Who would they have selected had Allen been off the board?\u00a0 Hard to say.\u00a0 Let’s hope they weren’t looking at Reuben Foster.\u00a0 We can be relatively certain Josh Doctson was specifically targeted at #22.\u00a0 But he also filled a need.\u00a0 We can be almost positive Brandon Scherff was their highest-ranked player still on the board at #5.\u00a0 But he also filled a need.\u00a0 The strategy seems to be drafting the best player available at a position of need.<\/p>\n

What To Do<\/h2>\n

This begs a few questions, namely one specifically regarding what happens if either Derwin James\u00a0 or Minkah Fitzpatrick were still on the board at #13.\u00a0 James would be a candidate to fill the hybrid role Sua Cravens was supposed to fill.\u00a0 But the team doesn’t need a safety as much as it needs a NT to help with the run defense.\u00a0 So, would they elect to choose James over someone like Da’Ron Payne?\u00a0 Fitzpatrick is strictly a CB at the NFL level.\u00a0 Does his grade push him past other prospects if he is still available?\u00a0 To fans it might seem obvious the defense is the area of greatest need.\u00a0 Maybe the Skins place more value on a top prospect RB like a Derrius Guice.\u00a0 But do they grade Guice as being that much better a prospect than a Rashaad Penny or a Nick Chubb?<\/p>\n

No Third<\/h2>\n

One thing that hurts every mock draft, and undoubtedly will affect the real one as well, is the lack of a third round selection.\u00a0 That pick was traded to Kansas City for Alex Smith.\u00a0 It would be helpful if they could package together some picks and move back up into the 3rd round.\u00a0 Most of the top DL and RB prospects are gone by the end of the third which means they either necessarily reach on a prospect out of necessity or they miss out on a prospect they had targeted who had no chance of falling to them in the fourth.<\/p>\n

The following mock drafts will reflect this problem, because while it’s easy to talk about trading back or trading up it’s a lot harder to find a team willing to trade.\u00a0 While all mocks are fantasy there is at least some semblance of realism to a mock which involves no trades.<\/p>\n

Keeping it Quiet<\/h2>\n

One other point of contention is that the Redskins rarely discuss prospects or positions they are genuinely discussing behind closed doors.\u00a0 They rarely sign prospects they have brought in for visits.\u00a0 In fact, based upon history, we could almost be dismissive of any prospect or position they’ve openly mentioned.\u00a0 Doug Williams has mentioned QB and RB so many times it seems those are not areas of need. There are those who would argue differently on RB but the offensive line was a shambles last season and the top two backs were injured.\u00a0 It’s hard to evaluate much of anything under those conditions.<\/p>\n

While it’s not out of the question the Redskins would select a RB with the #13 pick it seems unlikely.\u00a0 They have more backs on the roster than they can keep.\u00a0 They have positions of need which are unlikely to be filled in free agency.\u00a0 Maybe Hankins signs and eliminates one need.\u00a0 Maybe they find a veteran stopgap guard or center after cuts.\u00a0 There are always linemen looking for jobs.\u00a0 They would have to value a line prospect considerably to take one over a skill position.\u00a0 But it is a position of need until it isn’t one.<\/p>\n

Simulations<\/h2>\n

After running simulations hundreds of times using a composite draft board and the difficult algorithm, most of the time the choices have been between Vea, Payne, and Guice.\u00a0 Of the three Payne seems like the choice because he is a three down player who fills a need.\u00a0 Vea could be a dominant run stopper, definitely a need, but he is graded as a two down player.\u00a0 Guice is nice but is he that much better than Chubb or Penny, both of whom are likely to be available in the second round?\u00a0 After Payne the DE prospects fall off a cliff.\u00a0 Yes, there has been some talk of Settle but if a team needs a DL once Payne is gone Settle could be next.\u00a0 It seems unlikely he would still be on the board three rounds later.\u00a0 And this is where the reaching comes in.\u00a0 If they pass on Payne or Guice in the first, and obviously they have to pass on one since they only have one first round pick, they are pretty much forced to reach on Penny, Chubb, or Settle in the second.\u00a0 They have got to get that third round pick back.<\/p>\n

History Of Washington\u2019s First Round Draft Selections<\/a><\/p>\n

Mock Drafts<\/h2>\n

Having said that, I’ll be posting several mocks for people to discuss.\u00a0 I’ll try to explain the strategy behind each one as they are posted.\u00a0 Some will be strictly BPA.\u00a0 Others will be strictly need-based.\u00a0 Here is the first one:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
2018 NFL Mock Draft 1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hope springs eternal. \u00a0The words, “With the 13th selection in the 2018 NFL Draft the Washington Redskins select …” have been ringing in our heads for weeks, if not months. Free agency is ostensibly over and, yet again, the front office failed to fill every need by spending.\u00a0 Good.\u00a0 That was and is a failed … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,1889],"tags":[1906],"class_list":["post-15597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nfl-draft","category-washington-commanders","tag-daron-payne"],"yoast_head":"\nYou Will Be Mocked - NFL Draft 2018 | The-Hogs.net<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/the-hogs.net\/blogs\/2018\/04\/14\/you-will-be-mocked\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"You Will Be Mocked - NFL Draft 2018 | The-Hogs.net\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hope springs eternal. \u00a0The words, “With the 13th selection in the 2018 NFL Draft the Washington Redskins select …” have been ringing in our heads for weeks, if not months. 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